Scott Boras is hoping that negotiations between Boston and Jason Bay fall apart.

                With baseball’s winter meetings in Indianapolis just 9 days away, the hot stove figures to pick up steam quickly. Although there aren’t a lot of signings or trades happening yet, agents and general managers are very busy laying the groundwork for possible deals in the future. John Mozeliak figures to have a busy time in Indianapolis, as he will have to continue to go forth with his parallel tracks off-season plan (click here for an explanation). Matt Holliday is obviously plan A and the goal of the off-season, but the key to landing him might be what happens with Jason Bay and the Red Sox.

                After missing out on Mark Texeira last off-season, the Red Sox definitely need to add a big bat this winter. Jason Bay has performed very well for Boston, but recently rejected a 4 year $60 million dollar offer. Bay can hit, but his defense leaves something to be desired, and one of General Manager Theo Epstein’s goals this off-season is to improve the Red Sox defense. Theo said this in an NESN.com article, stating: “If you look back at this year’s club, I think we weren’t the defensive club that we wanted to be. So there’s room for improvement with our overall team defense, our defensive efficiency.” Holliday would be an upgrade over Bay defensively, and with left-field and shortstop the only two positions that the Sox need to fill through trades or free-agency this winter, Matt Holliday could be a great fit in Boston.

                Why is Boston such a key in the Holliday negotiations? Matt Holliday is a Scott Boras client, which traditionally means that the client will sign with the highest bidder. In this Wednesday’s post I explained why the Cardinals had to look for value in their free agents because of their $100 million dollar payroll, but in Boston’s case Theo Epstein can afford to pay market value for players because of higher payroll Boston has. Boston’s payroll has been in the $121 to $143 million range the last 3 years, so the Sox top offer could top the Cardinals top offer because of the payroll disparities between the two teams.

                Another variable in the Holliday negotiations if Bostons gets involved are the Yankees. I dubbed them the “sleeping dog” in the process in my post that focused on potential suitors for Holliday, because although the Yankees appear willing to bring back Johnny Damon now, if Boston goes after Holliday the Yankees will likely enter the bidding as well. Even if the Yankees have no intention of signing Holliday, they will likely bid just to drive up the price on Boston, which would probably make the Cardinal’s offer a distant third.

                Of course this could all just be speculation of Bay re-signs with the Red Sox, which is a possibility. Theo also talked about a potential deal with Bay in that same NESN article, stating that “he hopes it does (happen).” Bay will likely be cheaper than Holliday, and with the Red Sox in the Roy Halladay trade talks, Josh Beckett needing a contract extension, and the fact that they still don’t have a shortstop, it’s possible that Bay could be a more attractive option than Holliday because of the price. This year’s winter meetings figure to be an exciting time for Cardinals, and in addition to paying attention to the Holliday negotiations, need to follow the Bay situation as well.

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Value will be a key theme discussed by members of the front office this off-season.

-Before I dive right in to the main point of this post, first let me say that Cardinal fans are truly blessed to watch Albert Pujols play in St. Louis. Albert’s numbers, makeup, and work ethic are all off the charts, and to think that he should still have several more seasons in his prime is amazing. Scott Boras has used the term “franchise player” to describe Matt Holliday this off-season, but if Boras wants to see what a real pillar of a franchise is, he should watch Pujols’s press conference from yesterday. Pujols is the very definition of what a franchise player is, and no disrespect to Matt Holliday, but he just isn’t in Pujols’s league.-

                In recent weeks, General Manager John Mozeliak has given several indications of what he would like to do this off-season. Plan A this off-season is re-signing Matt Holliday, who is the biggest bat on the free agent market. In a radio interview on 101 ESPN Mozeliak said that pitching would be the primary focus of plan B, with a lesser bat likely manning either third-base or the outfield. Some feel like Jason Bay, the best bat besides Holliday, should be a priority for the Cardinals, but Mozeliak’s interest appears to be mild at best. So now that it’s becoming clearer what the Cardinals might do, I think it’s a good idea to try and figure out why they see those two plans as the best course of action.

                Obviously plan A is and should be to try and re-sign Matt Holliday. No other position on the Cardinals needs an upgrade more than left-field, and Holliday was the most valuable left-fielder in the game this past season per WAR (Wins Above Replacement-for a good explanation of what WAR is, check out Derrick Goold’s excellent article here). It’s been speculated by many that Holliday’s contract will fall into the $16-18 million range per season, and since each WAR is generally paid $4.4 million on the free agent market, its easy to see that if Holliday stays at a 5.5 WAR level, $16-18 million per year could make him a valuable asset. I know it seems like I have contradicted myself in citing that each WAR is generally worth $4.4 million on the free agent market and then say Holliday is likely to get a deal in the $16-18 million per season range, but the reasons for that are: 1. some of Holliday’s value comes from his defense, and defense is still undervalued by some clubs 2. the $4.4 million figure is what teams generally pay for a single season, in a large multi-year deal like Holliday will command, the risk of injury/attrition in performance mean that his average annual value will be slightly lower than his worth if he were to just sign a 1 year contract. So even though Holliday will command a large contract, he will likely be a good value to the club and would fill a large hole in left-field.

                If the Cardinals don’t get Holliday, some members of the media don’t see why Jason Bay wouldn’t be a priority for the Cardinals (for my take on the Bay-Holliday debate, click here). In short, Bay figures to command a contract in the 4 year $60 million range that Boston offered him. Considering Bay has been worth $15 million once in the past 3 years and he is already 31 years old with bad knees and worse defensive range, its easy to see how a Bay contract won’t be providing the surplus value (WAR-Actual Salary) that Holliday’s contract might. It appears that the best that the team that signs Bay can hope for is for Bay to just be worth his contract and not provide any surplus value, which is possible. That team would be paying almost the $4.4 million per WAR market value for Bay, which doesn’t seem like a bad thing. Why can’t the Cardinals do that?

                The Cardinals have a payroll that has consistently been around the $100 million mark. If the Cardinals payed the market value of $4.4 million per WAR to all of their roster, they would theoretically reach the .500 mark at about $88 million, meaning that at $100 million payroll would give them around a 83 win team. That’s not good enough to reach the playoffs most years, and obviously because of below market extensions like Pujols has signed and young players like Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus producing value for the league minimum not every player on the Cardinals is getting payed market value for their WAR, but it is easy to see that too many players providing 0 surplus or even negative value can really inhibit the Cardinals from being a good team, so instead the Cardinals have to look at some players on the free agent market that will likely be more valuable than their actual salaries. One way to do this is to sign Matt Holliday, but in case that doesn’t happen, the Cardinals have a backup plan.

                Mozeliak said that the priority would likely be pitching if Holliday departs, along with a lesser veteran bat at either third-base or left-field. Derrick Goold has said that the club has interest in Xavier Nady, who will likely command a salary of around $5 million since he is coming of an injury. Allen Craig will also be a candidate to see some time in left, so the 2010 left-field combination would cost around $5.4 million and produce around 2 WAR. If you compare that to the 5.5 WAR and $16-18 million Holliday is likely to pull in you will see that the Cardinals would have accumulate 3.5 WAR and only have $10.6-$12.6 million to do it. If the going rate is $4.4 million per WAR on the free agent market, theoretically the Cardinals shouldn’t be able to obtain that many WAR with the remaining dollars they have, but this year there is a way it is possible. With many talented pitchers who are coming off of injuries available, if the Cardinals were to sign someone like Rich Harden (I discussed here) or someone like Ben Sheets it is possible for the Cardinals to get 3.5 WAR for less than market value. The reason for this is that since these pitchers were injured, they won’t be getting paid market value for their performance and will sign lower cost and incentive laden deals instead. A healthy Sheets would probably be worth at least 3.5 WAR, which would mean for around the same price that the Cardinals would be paying Holliday, they would obtain roughly the same amount of WAR. This is why plan B’s priority will be pitching, and not Jason Bay. Sure signing a pitcher coming off of an injury is risky, but so is giving Matt Holliday 6 years and $100 million. To wrap this up, the Cardinals are looking for good values this off-season, and they will either get their value from Matt Holliday or from pitching. Each has risks, but each also carries the potential reward for another playoff birth. These next couple weeks will be some of the most exciting of the off-season, so it will be interesting to see if Mozeliak ends up using plan A or plan B.

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Rich Harden would fit the mold of what John Mozeliak is looking for in a starter this off-season.

                Despite all of the controversy surrounding the Cy-Young award voting, I am going to shift gears and talk about the other important event that happened Thursday, which was the official beginning of free agency. Now that teams can actually talk contracts with players, things figure to pick up steam in the next couple of weeks. John Mozeliak joined Bernie Miklasz’s radio show this week, and offered some insight into what his plan might be this off-season. Obviously plan A is to sign Matt Holliday, but that’s an issue I’ve debated enough already, so I’ll focus on what Mozeliak has said he might consider should Holliday walk.

                Mo’ made a comment that besides looking for a veteran presence at either third-base or left-field, he would probably shift his focus on starting pitching. I am very glad that Mozeliak isn’t comfortable going into the season with both David Freese and Allen Craig as projected starters. A lineup carrying two rookies with plate discipline that isn’t the best is not a good idea, so acquiring a player who has an established track record makes sense. I am also very glad to see Mozeliak say that starting pitching would be the priority, as the starting rotation carries some significant injury risk.

The Current Rotation:

1. Carpenter-I don’t need to go into detail to describe that Chris is an injury risk. He has said himself many times that his nerve condition could come back at any time, making him a perennial candidate to miss some time on the disabled list.

2. Wainwright-Adam has missed some time in 2008 with a ruptured pulley in his finger, but has stayed healthy otherwise. I will state however, that Wainwright did rank 6^th in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) scale, and put a lot of mileage on his arm in his 233 inning campaign.

3. Kyle Lohse-Lohse had an injury-riddled season in 2009, only throwing 117.2 innings on the year. He suffered through a variety of injuries, including a right knee strain, various forearm ailments resulting from a hit-by-pitch, and a strained groin late in the year. Lohse’s .7 mph loss in velocity on his fastball from the year before and his 3% drop in the amount of strikes thrown can probably be attributed to his various injuries, but hopefully he can come into the spring healthy and be the pitcher he was in 2008.

4. Jaime Garcia-Garcia, a left-hander, will most likely be the official #5 starter when the season starts, but as of right now I have him 4^th . There’s a lot to like about Garcia, as he uses an upper 80′s to low 90′s fastball along with an over the top curve and change to generate ground balls. Garcia’s ground ball % has hovered in the mid 50′s to lower 60′s in the minors, which should mesh well with Dave Duncan’s philosophy. There is also some caution with Garcia, as he is is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Teams like to limit the amount of innings their young pitchers throw, and with Garcia pitching in his first full season since before his surgery it’s pretty optimistic and probably unrealistic to project more than 160-180 innings from him. If Garcia could give the Cardinals that many innings from the back of the rotation, I am sure the Cardinals would take it.

                As you can see, the front 4 in the rotation has the potential to be very good, but health is the key variable. If someone were to get hurt, depth is also a serious issue. With Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, and Blake Hawksworth all likely to be relievers, Guys like Mike Parisi and P. J. Walters would be the next to step in, which is a cause for concern. This is why I feel the rotation depth is a serious issue and needs to be addressed whether Matt Holliday is signed or not. So what free agents could John Mozeliak consider?

                I have mentioned before that with Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse signed long-term, the Cardinals aren’t in a position to make another large multi-year commitment to a pitcher, which is what Mozeliak has said on numerous occasions. That can make things tricky in the free agent market, but luckily this year there should be plenty of options. First let me clarify that when I say that the Cardinals should stay away from large multi-year commitments, I am talking about pitchers who will probably command large money for 3-5 years, which would mean guys like John Lackey, Randy Wolf, and possibly Joel Pineiro. This year’s free agent class is filled with pitchers who are coming off of injuries and are looking to sign with a club to re-up their stock for the future, so the contracts of what they are looking for and what John Mozeliak is wanting to give are a good match. Some of these names include: Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, and John Smoltz. If healthy, each of these pitchers could be a nice value on a 1-2 year deal, but all have had their share of injuries in the past. That being said, if Mozeliak signs one of these types of pitchers he should also acquire a swing-man who could fill in the rotation or bullpen. Signing a talented but oft-injured pitcher and pairing him with a capable swing-man could be a very good scenario and provide a lot of value to the club. For example:

Sign Rich Harden

-say he pitches 150 innings over 25 starts, which is pretty close to what he has averaged the past two seasons. His projected ERA and FIP (Fielding Indepedent Pitching-measures things like walks and strikeouts to predict what a pitcher’s ERA would be if defense for every pitcher was the exact same)  next season are 3.33 and 3.67, respectively.

Sign an inexpensive pitcher like a non-tendered free agent-Sergio Mitre(?)

-Mitre is a definite non-tender candidate for the Yankees, and would be a good example of a swing-man Mozeliak could look at to pair with Harden in a rotation spot next year. If Harden makes 25 starts, Mitre would probably get around 7 starts and likely throw around 40 innings. His projected ERA is 5.00, but his projected FIP is just 4.39, so on a good defensive team like the Cardinals it would be reasonable to expect an ERA of around 4.50.

Harden/Mitre

                Altogether, a Harden/Mitre combination would make around 32 starts and throw around 190 innings with a 3.58 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, which would be fantastic production from the 4^th spot in the rotation. Add in the fact that the contracts for each of these pitchers would both be for only one or two years and you can see how this would be an attractive avenue for John Mozeliak to consider. The Cardinals would likely have one the best rotations in baseball and not tie themselves down with another long-term commitment while giving guys like Lance Lynn another year to develop in the minor leagues. It would be a win for all the parties involved, and is something I hope John Mozeliak considers doing this off-season, no matter if Holliday signs or not.

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Despite this miscue, Holliday still figures to have plenty of options this off-season.

                It’s well-known that agent Scott Boras loves to drum up interest in his clients, often throwing out “mystery teams” and false reported offers to drive up the price on the players he is representing. So it wasn’t a good thing for Mr. Boras when ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted on Monday that the Yankees have no interest in Holliday, and that left-field wasn’t a priority for them this off-season. It would definitely be a good thing if the Yankees aren’t in the bidding for Holliday, but it’s not safe to rule them out yet. Think of them as a sleeping dog if you will, and should they awaken they could come in and give Holliday an offer that blows every other team out of the water, which would be much like the way they did last year with Mark Texiera. The Yankees are just one team though, and figure to just be one of the clubs in the running for Holliday’s services, so what teams can the Cardinals expect to be bidding against this off-season?

In no particular order:

*Mets-The Mets had a $140 million opening day payroll this past year, and reportedly could have around $25-30 million to spend. That’s very similar to what the Cardinals could have available, and the Mets may have more needs than just adding a left-fielder. It might make more sense for Omar Minaya to spread around his dollars to help his depth. The Mets already have Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright as an offensive core, and with a rotation with the fragile John Maine as the #2 starter and Omir Santos as the projected starting catcher the Mets would probably be better off complementing their roster with role players rather than blowing 2/3 of their budget on one guy. The Mets are reportedly interested in another Cardinal free agent, Joel Pineiro, which isn’t surprising. I have thought Pineiro would go to the Mets all along because of their need for a durable pitcher. Minaya was heavily criticized for signing Oliver Perez over the durable sinker-baller Derek Lowe last off-season, so look for him to try to correct his mistake by signing Pineiro, who is in the same mold as Lowe.

*Yankees-The Yankees might not spend on Matt Holliday, but certainly could if they wanted to. Pitching appears to be a priority for the bombers, but if the Yankees lose out on a pitcher like John Lackey don’t be surprised if they turn to Holliday as their second option in the free agent market. Most rumors and rumblings have the Yankees having a fairly quiet off-season, but until Johnny Damon is re-signed the possibility for Brian Cashman to pursue Holliday is there. It will be interesting to see what roles the Yankees decide to use Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in, as well as if they tender Chien-Ming Wang a contract. Assuming New York signs Pettitte, 2/3 of Joba, Hughes, and Wang could handle the back two spots in the rotation and give Brian Cashman much more financial flexibility to pursue Holliday.

*Red Sox-The Red Sox had a $121 million dollar payroll last season, and have some financial flexibility going into this winter. I expect the Red Sox to re-sign Jason Bay for left-field, but if for some reason that doesn’t happen they would probably make Matt Holliday a priority. The best thing that could happen for the Cardinals is for Bay to re-sign with Boston. If he leaves, they are probably the biggest threat to land Holliday.

*Angels-The Angels are another big market club that could enter the Holliday bidding. If they lose some of their own free agents like John Lackey and Chone Figgins, the Angels could move in on Holliday to add offense even though they already have Juan Rivera in left-field. Recently we learned that the Angels aren’t “currently pursuing” Matt Holliday, but if both Lackey and Figgins leave things could change.

*Braves-The one thing that is holding the Braves back from being a force in the N.L. East is the lack of a big bat, especially in left-field. The Braves don’t have the financial flexibility of the Cardinals this off-season (GM Frank Wren said the Braves probably wouldn’t be in the mix for Holliday and Bay in a radio interview on XM), but whenever a team identifies a player as a potential “missing piece to the puzzle” the incentive to spend is there. If signing Holliday meant the difference between 85 and 90 wins, the Braves would be foolish not to add get into the Holliday bidding because the potential revenue gained from getting 90 wins and a possible play-off birth is greater than saving money by not signing Holliday and being an 85ish win team.

*Giants-No potential contender needs offense more than the Giants, and if it wasn’t for their horrible signings of Barry Zito ($126 million) and Aaron Rowand ($60 million), they might be a more serious contender for Holliday. However, as Buster Olney tweeted, the Giants would have $50 million committed to three players without having Lincecum, Cain, or Sandoval signed for the long-term.

*Mariners-Seattle is another team looking for offense, and also apparently has some serious cash if they reportedly are in the bidding for John Lackey. They might try to sign their ace Felix Hernandez to a long-term deal this off-season, but if he wants GM Jack Zduriencik will have some financial flexibility to work with this winter and get some desperately needed offense.

                So altogether it appears that the Cardinals could have up to 7 teams competing with them for Matt Holliday’s services. Although it’s unlikely that all 7 teams will be in the bidding, the potential for Scott Boras to work his magic is there. Whether the Cardinals offer is good enough will depend on if big- market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox stay out of the bidding, and also if Matt Holliday is not looking for every last dollar. Goold and Strauss have stated that there is a possibility that the Cardinals could put forth the best offer to Holliday, but as owner Bill Dewitt said if the big-market teams get involved the likelihood of John Mozeliak giving Boras the best offer isn’t good. Don’t look for any deal for Holliday to get done soon either, as Scott Boras typically likes to wait things out and try to locate a desperate team. Look for a Holliday deal to happen after the winter meetings, usually in the late December to early January period.

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John Mozeliak won't blink first in a staredown with Scott Boras.

                Well the GM Meetings have come and gone without much noise, as the Cardinals did not make any transactions. This is not unexpected however, as traditionally the GM Meetings are a place to lay groundwork for future deals, to get a sense of what teams are looking for, and also is an opportunity to get and early gauge on how the free agent market will play out. There were also some interesting tidbits about possible plans that John Mozeliak has this off-season, most of which came from St. Louis Post Dispatch writer Joe “El Diablo” Strauss (who really does a fantastic job of gathering info from sources inside the Cardinal organization. If you want legitimate rumors, read his stuff!).

                The big question on everyone’s mind is of course about whether Matt Holliday is coming back. He is the top free agent on the market, and with an agent like Scott Boras, this will be a tough sign for Mozeliak. Boras has said there won’t be any “Home-Town Discount” for the Cardinals if they want to sign Holliday, but that isn’t a shock to the Cards, who weren’t counting on one anyway. They reportedly would like to sign Holliday for $17 million a year, which wouldn’t be considered a discount of any kind. Both Mozeliak and Boras have said that the Cardinals haven’t made an offer to Holliday yet, which is a smart move on the Mozeliak’s part. Holliday is going to the open market, so there isn’t a point of putting an offer on the table yet that has almost zero chance of getting accepted. The plan is to let Holliday test the market, then when the Cardinals feel like they have a pretty good sense of where the market is, give Boras and Holliday a fair offer, and make it final. Mozeliak is being very smart by not engaging in a bidding war with Scott Boras, as many general managers in the past have. The Cardinals might not sign Holliday in the end, but they also aren’t going to get themselves into a franchise crippling contract either. I applaud Mozeliak for staying tough and playing hardball with Boras, as that’s not something a lot of other gm’s have been able to do.

                With Mozeliak’s acknowledgment that Holliday might not come back, the Cardinals are engaging in their parallel tracks plan and considering the other options for left-field and other parts on the roster. Mo’ has said that if Holliday does sign elsewhere, that the Cardinals aren’t going to be able to replace what Holliday brings in another left-field signing, which is obviously true. Holliday is the best free agent available, so the Cardinals will look to supplement their roster in other ways, which according to Joe Strauss could include beefing up the rotation, taking a look at the third base market, and adding a set-up reliever that could occasionally spell a tired Ryan Franklin in the closer’s role. As for left, Strauss says that the Cardinals likely won’t be involved in the bidding for Jason Bay’s services, as some in the organization feel that Bay is too much of a defensive liability. This is exactly what I said in a previous article, and I still feel that the Cardinals should either sign Holliday or go in a different direction that doesn’t include signing Bay (although I fully expect Bay to be back in Boston next season). Last Saturday’s Free Agent Profile Xavier Nady is also a consideration, and while Nady isn’t a star, he would be a low-cost alternative for left which would prevent the Cardinals from starting two rookies at third and in left with David Freese and Allen Craig. Luckily the Cardinals aren’t doing Jeff Gorden’s suggestion and signing Mark Derosa right now as an insurance policy either, an idea that I also dismissed in a previous article. Strauss also says that the Cardinals could be interested in adding to their starting rotation, which I think is a very good idea. The rotation depth is pretty thin, and a Cardinal rotation with Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and Garcia next season carries a pretty large injury risk. Strauss points out that the Cardinals aren’t interested in the market’s top starter in John Lackey, which is understandable. Lackey reportedly is using A.J. Burnett’s 5 year $82.5 million dollar deal signed last off-season as the starting point, and with the Cardinals already having 3/5ths of their starting rotation signed long term, a shorter term deal for a starting pitcher would probably be best. There also doesn’t appear to be much interest in retaining Joel Pineiro, rumored to have a 3 year and $30 million dollar price tag. For my take on why the Cardinals shouldn’t resign Joel, check back to this article. Finally, Strauss reports that he isn’t aware of any interest in free agent third-basemen Chone Figgins, who I think would be a good fit (here’s the link to that article). That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cardinals aren’t interested in Figgins, but with the Holliday situation in limbo there is only so much Mozeliak can do at this point.

                Overall I am very happy with John Mozeliak’s plan this off-season. He is very interested in signing Matt Holliday, but isn’t going to get into a bidding war and let Boras leave him paralyzed this off-season. He will instead use his parallel tracks plan, which includes spreading the dollars that would have gone to Holliday around to various parts of the roster. The way I see it, the Cardinals will be a good team if Holliday is brought back, and they will also put a competitive roster on the field if Holliday isn’t. This off-season is going to be a wild ride Cardinal fans, so let’s just sit back and watch it unfold.

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It’s awards season, which means I’ll take a break from my usual off-season updates and reflect upon the year that was.

1. Cardinal Player of the Year:Albert Pujols-This one isn’t even close. Albert had a monster season, putting up a .327/.443/.658 line and being an 8.4 WAR player.

2. Cardinal Pitcher of the Year: Adam Wainwright-I can see the argument for Carpenter, but I went with Wainwright because of the quantity of innings over Carpenter’s slightly better quality of innings. Also, Wainwright was worth 5.7 WAR, and Carpenter was a 5.6 WAR pitcher. If the Cardinals had more viable replacements to step in the rotation and help if other pitchers got hurt, I might go with Carpenter, but with the Cardinals being pretty thin in rotation depth, the innings that Wainwright provided helped save the bullpen from being overworked and helped the Cardinals limit the innings guys like Mitchell Boggs and PJ Walters had to throw.

3. Game of the Year: September 26 @ Rockies-This was the closest thing the Cardinals had to celebrating a World Series this year, and it was also a fantastic game in itself. Wainwright struck out 11 in 8 strong innings, and the go-ahead homer from backup Jason Larue was huge as well.

4. Surprise Player of the Year: Brendan Ryan-Raise your hand if you thought Brendan Ryan would be a 3.2 WAR shortstop this year? Yeah, me neither. Ryan now appears to be the long term solution at shortstop after flashing a .740 ops and playing gold glove caliber defense. Schumaker and Franklin were also pleasant surprises, but Schumaker was labeled the second baseman in spring training and Franklin was a candidate to close all along.

5. Disappointing Player of the Year: Rick Ankiel-Ankiel managed a .672 ops in his free agent year and generally just looked lost at the plate. I don’t need to post stats here when it was clear to everyone who watched the Cardinals that Rick Ankiel was a massive bust in 2009. Some blame it on his shoulder, which he reportedly injured in his collision with the wall early in the year, but the truth is he wasn’t hitting before that either. Khalil Green was also a candidate here, but he wasn’t coming off an .843 ops season like Rick was.

6. Cardinal Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus-Another no brainer, Colby had an up and down rookie campaign offensively, but was a defensive standout and was worth 2.3 WAR. Colby looks to have the center field position for the Cardinals covered for a long time.

7. Off-Season Acquisition of the Year: Trever Miller-This was really an uninspiring list, as the Cardinals were unable to really make a splash last off-season. Miller, however did fill the role of lefty specialist very nicely, posting a 2.01 ERA and a sub-1 whip on the year.

8. Mid-Season Acquisition of the Year: Matt Holliday-Matt Holliday was so productive in the 2 months the Cardinals had him that he was their fourth most productive player for the season per WAR, finishing behind Pujols, Molina, and Brendan Ryan.

9. Most Anticipated Cardinal: Shelby Miller(RHP)-My most anticipated Cardinal is also the farthest away. Miller arguably has the most potential of any Cardinal prospect and is their best pitching prospect since Ankiel. Miller possesses a low to mid 90-’s fastball and complements it with sharp but inconsistent curve. His arrival date is still several years away, but Miller has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter for the Cardinals.

10. Best Individual Blog: Fungoes-Obviously there are a lot of good choices, but I am a huge fan of the Sabermetric viewpoint of the Fungoes blog.

11. Best Team Blog: Viva El Birdos-I have followed VEB for a long time and it’s a must read every morning. Highly recommend.

12. Best Media Blog: Cardinal Beat-This was another hard choice, but with different Cardinal beat writers contributing, it’s very good for off-season rumors and other stories around baseball.

13. Best UCB Project: Roundtables-I think this is a fantastic way for bloggers to weigh in on different issues and happenings surrounding the Cardinals

-For the final 3. questions(which can be found here http://www.cardinal70.com/united-cardinal-bloggers/2009-cardinal-blogger-awards-n.php#bottom), I have to admit I am new to some of these other sites and didn’t want to voice an opinion that I did not feel strongly about. 

 -Special thanks to cardinal70.com “c70 at the bat” for organizing these awards, be sure to visit his site to see the results coming up soon!

-Agree or Disagree?  Drop a comment in the section below and I’ll be happy to explain my reasoning.

-As for Saturday, I’ll be delving into the rumors and ramblings of the winter meetings and examining John Mozeliak’s strategies in building the 2010 Cardinals.

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All:

I will be switching to a Wednesday/Saturday post schedule for a little while now, expect tommorow’s post to focus on the United Cardinal’s Bloggers end of season awards!

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A healthy Xavier Nady would be a solid option if the Cardinals fail to retain Matt Holliday

                In light of John Mozeliak’s recent comments about the importance of free agency in this upcoming off-season, it is important to have an idea on what types of players might interest the Cardinals. Obviously Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are the class of free agency, but there are other options out there in the next tier talent wise. One such option that St. Louis Post Dispatch writer Derrick Goold believes is a potential fit for the Redbirds is Xavier Nady, who Cardinals fans got to know during his tenure with the Pirates from 2006 to 2008. Nady is not a star or core piece like Matt Holliday is, but he does have some positive qualities.

                In 2008, Nady’s last full healthy season, he managed to put up a robust .305/.357/.510 slash line for an .867 ops. Nady also amassed 25 homers, drove in 97, and scored 76 runs. Xavier doesn’t have exceptional plate discipline, as he walked only 39 times to go against 103 strikeouts. Still though Nady was a valuable offensive player and would have ranked as the Cardinals third best hitter behind Pujols and Holliday this past year. There are some questions about Nady’s offense, however, as his career ops is .792, which is just slightly above average. Still it should be noted that in Nady’s last 3 healthy seasons his ops went from .790 to .805 to .867, so it does seem that he reaching his peak as an offensive threat.

                Nady can hit, but that is only half of the equation as Adam Dunn has proved since a run saved is just as important as a run created. Nady has some ugly UZR numbers up until is his breakout season in 2008, as he was worth around negative -9 runs in the field both seasons. Then in 2008 Nady was 3.8 runs on defense. Some of the improvement was probably the result of him not having to play center field, where he is -10 runs below average in just 45 games in his career. For the Cardinals, Nady would likely be the starting left fielder, where he has been 1 run above average in 100 career games. Overall Nady would probably not save or cost the Cardinals any runs with his glove, which is more valuable than it sounds considering other potential options like Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, and Jason Bay’s defense would each probably cost the Cardinals at least ten runs.

                Obviously the big x-factor with Nady is health. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but if he is healthy he could be a nice value on a short term deal. Nady was worth 4 wins over replacement level in 2008, which produced over 18 million dollars in value. For comparison’s sake, Matt Holliday can be expected to be worth about 5.5 WAR, so while Nady certainly isn’t Matt Holliday, he isn’t a bad player either. Even if Nady regresses to something like a 2.5-3 WAR level, he would still produce between 10 to 13 million dollars in value, which is almost guaranteed to be more than what his actual salary would be. Coming off and injury, Nady would probably be looking for a 1-2 year deal to prove that he is healthy for a salary that would probably be in the neighborhood of around 5 million annually plus incentives.

                To summarize, Xavier Nady could be a very solid option should the Cardinals fail to retain Matt Holliday. Nady can reasonably be expected to produce at an .800 ops clip or above while being an average defender. Nady probably isn’t the 4 WAR player he was in 2008, but even if he is worth 2.5 to 3 WAR he would still be a valuable player that would be more than worth the salary on a short-term contract. Xavier Nady isn’t a superstar, but is an option that is worth considering if John Mozeliak is unable to reel in the big one in Holliday.

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Adam Dunn would add some sock from the left side to the Cardinal lineup.

                Since arguably the entire off-season is dictated on whether Matt Holliday returns or walks as a free agent, it makes sense for Cardinals to have some backup plans for left field in case the inevitable(?) happens. Once such backup plan the Cardinals could consider is Adam Dunn. Cardinal fans know the story with Dunn, as they saw him primarily do 3 things during his tenure with the Reds: take walks, hit home runs, and play bad defense. So would Dunn be a good target for the Cardinals to consider? In considering this scenario I am taking Dunn’s offense, defense, and cost of acquiring him in forming my consensus.

                 Dunn is obviously a very potent bat. Some fans point to his high strikeout totals and totally dismiss Dunn’s offense, but he more than makes up for those admittedly high K totals by being an on-base machine with power. Dunn had a .398 obp in 2009, and carries a .383 mark for his career. Dunn’s batting average isn’t high, it’s below .250 for his career, but Dunn still got on base more in 2009 by hitting .267 this year than Matt Holliday did while hitting .313. Dunn also has prodigious power, hitting 38 homers and 29 doubles which helped him post a slugging percentage of .529 in 2009. So Dunn gets on base and hits for power, two attributes that the Cardinals could really use an upgrade in, but what about his defense?

                Everyone knows Dunn is very limited defensively, but just how much so? Besides, as Joe Strauss has pointed out, the Cardinals have sacrificed defense in left-field before. Well to be kind, Adam Dunn is awful defensively. His defense was -14.4 runs below an average left fielder in 2009, which is bad enough, but considering that Dunn only played 62 games at the position this year makes that figure look even worse. If Dunn had played in 150 games in left, his defense would have cost the Nationals over 28 runs if he continued to play defense at that pace! Dunn also played 22 games in right, where he was -8.1 runs below average, and 67 games at first base, where he was -13.9 runs below average. I didn’t think I would see a time where Chris Duncan would be a better option defensively out in left field, but if the Cardinals traded for Dunn that would be the case.

                When you combine Dunn’s offensive prowess with his defensive liabilities, it made Dunn be worth 1.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this past season, which produced $5.2 million dollars in value. Considering that Dunn’s 2010 contract will pay him $12 million, it’s unlikely that his performance will match his salary. Obviously Dunn is also under the Nationals control right now, so the Cardinals would have to put together a package to send to Washington. Since Dunn already probably won’t be worth the contract he is getting, when you consider that the Cardinals will also have to send additional pieces over to the Nationals its hard to imagine John Mozeliak coming out ahead on this one, even if Dunn is a type A free agent and the Cardinals get draft picks for him at the end of the season. The draft picks from type A free agents are worth on average worth $5.5 million dollars in value minus the signing bonus that they collect. Basically if Dunn reproduces his 2009, he will produce 5.2 million dollars in value and then provide an additional 5.5 million dollars in value if he leaves as a type A free agent and signs with with a team that finished in 16-30 in the standings. Dunn will also be getting paid 12 million in addition to the value of the players the Cardinals would have to send over to acquire Dunn, so in a Dunn trade the Cardinals would likely be sending over much more value than they would be receiving.

                In conclusion, Adam Dunn is a fantastic offensive player, there is no denying that. For as good as he is offensively however, his defense is just as bad. In terms of overall WAR, Allen Craig has a good chance of matching Dunn’s output next season, and Craig will only be paid the league minimum and doesn’t have to be traded for. It’s hard to imagine Dunn being a good value when all the factors (salary, performance, type A compensation picks, players traded) are accounted for. Overall the Cardinals need to look elsewhere for left field options in case Matt Holliday departs, and luckily there are plenty of players out there who can fill that void.

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Allen Craig's productive bat has got him on the brink of the Major Leagues.

                Yesterday the Cardinals announced their Minor League player of the year with 3b/1b/lf Allen Craig taking home the honors. It wasn’t a shock to see Craig take home the award, as his bat has produced at every level he has played. Craig’s award has Cardinals fans everywhere asking what kind of player Craig really is, and it seems two sides have developed in stark contrast to each other. On one side, there is a pocket of believers in Craig who are wildly optimistic, believing that his bat will produce at the major league level enough that the Cardinals should give Craig the starting left-field job in 2010 and not mess with negotiating with Matt Holliday. On the other hand, there is also a large group of fans who see another John Gall when they look at Craig, meaning they think he is the classic “AAAA” player, which is a player that puts up strong numbers in AAA but just is not good enough to get over the hump and become a productive major leaguer. So which side is correct? What do the Cardinals have in Allen Craig?

                In order to project what Craig can do in 2010, let’s review what got him knocking on the major league’s door. Allen Craig was drafted in the 8^th round of the 2006 amateur draft out of Cal-Berkeley. A shortstop in college, he was moved to the hot corner upon being drafted where he stayed at as he moved up through the minor leagues. With David Freese and Brett Wallace being ahead in the Cardinals depth chart at third at different times, the organization saw a need for Craig to become more versatile if they were going to get his bat in the lineup as he neared the big leagues, so Craig has recently began to play left-field as well. Since David Freese is still with the organization and is the likely opening day starter, if Craig is going to make the team his role will be as a left-fielder and backup third-basemen. Craig’s defense ranges from poor to average, so almost all of Craig’s value lies in his bat. In any level Craig has managed to play over 100 games (A+, AA, AAA), he has managed to hit at least 20 home runs. Since his 2009 AAA stats are the most relevant as it pertains to projecting to his major league performance, let’s delve into them. Craig put up a .322/.374/.547 slash line good for a .921 on-base plus slugging, which for a comparison looks like a typical year from Matt Holliday (I am not suggesting Craig = Holliday, AAA stats do not equal major league stats, I am just showing how good of a season Craig had in AAA). Craig also hit 26 home runs, scored 78 runs, and drove in another 83. His other meaningful statistics included 95 strikeouts compared with only 37 walks. Craig does not appear to have very strong plate discipline, as his 7.3% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate combines for a .39 bb/k ratio, which is not very good. So overall, Craig has flashed a skillset that includes poor to average defense, good power, and a decent ability to get on base though it is tied very closely to his batting average. An on-base percentage that is mostly influenced by batting average tends not to translate very well as a player moves up through the majors, so what exactly do the Cardinals have in Craig?

                Using his 2009 AAA stats, Craig’s numbers would translate into a .281/.327/.455 slash line good for a .782 ops, which was basically what Ryan Ludwick produced in 2009*. Craig is also projected to hit 20 homers, score over 60 runs, and drive in around 65. Those are solid numbers, but no one is going to confuse Craig with Matt Holliday. Overall, those offensive statistics combined with Craig’s defense would peg him at around 1 to 1.5 Wins Above Replacement, which would produce anywhere from 4.4 to 6.6 million dollars in value depending upon Craig’s defense being poor or average and playing time. Considering Craig would be getting the major league minimum, he would produce some nice value for St. Louis, but it would be a far cry from the 5-6 WAR that Matt Holliday will likely produce next year.

                In conclusion, Allen Craig has accomplished everything he can at the minor league level. His skills are as ready for the Major Leagues as they likely ever will be, so he does deserve a shot on the roster next season. Allen Craig is a solid player, but he is probably better off in a reserve/spot starter role for next season, a situation where he could be quite valuable. It doesn’t appear that Craig falls in either of the two camps that Cardinals fans seem to think he is in, but instead fits in the middle. Overall Cardinal fans need to hope that Allen Craig makes the roster for 2010 as a reserve, not as a starter that gets 500 at-bats in left field.

*Note: Craig is projected to produce something similar to Ryan Ludwick’s 2009 .775 ops, and the gap between Ludwick’s 97 rbi’s next year and Craig’s projected 65 is insignificant and has to do with the fact that Ludwick was hitting behind Pujols and most of the year. Hitting behind Pujols or Holliday wasn’t taken into consideration when the projection for Craig was done.

You can follow me specifically on twitter @secret_sauce29 and also the Cardinals GM website @CardinalsGM. Also, I apologize for the lack of hyperlinks in this post. My laptop has crashed and I can’t hyperlink on this old version of word.

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