Scott Boras has to wonder why more teams aren't showing interest in Matt Holliday.

                After several weeks of inactivity, the past couple of days have brought some clarity into what’s going to happen with the Cardinals this off-season. Mark Derosa signed with the Giants, Jason Bay went to the Mets, and with the Yankees and Red Sox likely out of the running for Matt Holliday, it appears that the Cardinals are the most serious bidder for the prized left fielder. Everything that has happened this off-season has worked in the Cardinals favor in their attempt to re-sign Holliday. The Angels and Giants declared him too expensive, Boston took the offer they had for Holliday and gave it to John Lackey to go along with signing Mike Cameron, the Mets signed Jason Bay, and the Yankees don’t have any interest in Scott Boras’s top client. Sure a team like the Orioles could stay in the bidding, but even they don’t like the price of Holliday and there’s been no indication that Holliday would even want to play there. Just because it looks like the Cardinals are the most serious bidder for Holliday doesn’t mean this will be a quick resolution, however, as Scott Boras continues to play the waiting game. Buster Olney tweeted yesterday that Boras was “doubling back” to teams to try to garner more interest in his client, but if teams passed on Holliday the first time around, it’s unlikely that they would enter the sweepstakes now. Mozeliak appears to be eying a mid-January conclusion of the Holliday saga, stating “ideally you know what team you have by the middle of January” in a p-d article. In that same article, Goold states again how the Cardinals have interest in another one of Scott Boras’s clients, Felipe Lopez. I think Lopez would be a solid addition, as he would add some depth and versatility to the roster (for a more detailed take on Lopez, click here). Lopez might not be much of an upgrade over David Freese at third, but I don’t think it hurts to have depth on the roster, as long as it’s at a reasonable price. Lopez is a switch hitter that LaRussa could bat in the two-hole in front of Pujols, which would mean Colby Rasmus could bat lower in the lineup, perhaps utilizing his base-stealing ability more. Overall it is shaping up to be a fine off-season for the Cardinals, and it appears as if John Mozeliak’s plan is working to perfection. Scott Boras is playing the waiting game now, but with each passing day both Holliday and the Cardinals will want a resolution to this process. For now Cardinal fans can only hope no other “mystery teams” emerge and Mozeliak doesn’t grow impatient and bid against himself for Holliday.

No Comments »

Brian Cashman hasn't said much about Matt Holliday this off-season.

                Throughout the off-season, Cardinal fans have been worried about one team in particular getting involved in the Matt Holliday sweepstakes: the Yankees. Those concerns were quieted some when the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson in a three-team trade, but with the Melky Cabrera (plus prospects) for Javy Vasquez deal going down, there is an opening in left field once again for the Bombers. General Manager Brian Cashman has insisted that any potential signing for left field won’t be a big ticket item, but similar things were said last year before the Yankees swooped in at the eleventh hour and grabbed Mark Texeira away from the Red Sox and Angels. This is why the Yankees can be considered the “sleeping dog” in these Holliday negotiations, as the threat of them suddenly giving Boras an offer he desires exists. Derrick Goold and others seem to think that the Yankees will be a bigger threat to Mark Derosa than they will be to sign Holliday, and I agree 100%. Here’s why:

-People laugh when the Yankees say they are going to have a “budget conscious” off-season, but in their own Yankee-way they are. Although they have traded for a multi-year (albeit team friendly) contract in Curtis Granderson, the rest of the Yankee off-season additions-Andy Pettitte, Nick Johnson, and Javy Vasquez will all be free agents next off-season. The Yankee version of being “budget conscious” doesn’t involve not spending money, it involves not handing out huge multi-year deals, such as the one Matt Holliday would command. This is why the Yankees are more likely to bring back Johnny Damon or sign Mark Derosa, because of the shorter commitments they will require.

-The luxury tax. Yes the Yankees play with monopoly money, but even they would like to keep their payroll for 2010 around $200 million (it’s currently at $204 +). If the Yankees were to sign Matt Holliday at $18 million per year, which would be reasonable considering the Yankees don’t back-load their contracts as much as teams like the Cardinals, with the 40% luxury tax the money they would actually be paying to sign Matt Holliday is $25.2 million, which would put the Yankees payroll around $230 million! That would be an enormous number even for the Yankees, and I just don’t see them paying Matt Holliday $25 million per season.

                In conclusion, the Yankees very well could sign Matt Holliday, but that seems very unlikely at this point. Signing Matt Holliday would go against what the Yankees want to do with their payroll, which is keep it around $200 million and not give out huge multi-year deals. This isn’t what Scott Boras is wanting to hear, but it is looking like the Cardinals will have the best offer for Holliday this off-season.

No Comments »

-With the Holliday situation still unresolved, I figured it would be a good time to present the December UCB project while the Cardinals and Scott Boras play a multi-million dollar game of chicken. This month’s project focuses on the top five stories of the year in Cardinal baseball, and there were plenty of great choices to choose from. In this list, I put down the five things that most define 2009, so without further adieu your top five stories of this year:

5. The Cardinals trade for Mark Derosa, Julio Lugo, Matt Holliday and also sign John Smoltz

-The Cardinals stayed in the race for the central division until John Mozeliak brought in an impressive group of reinforcements that helped the Cardinals steamroll to the central division crown. The Cardinals traded some of their top prospects in the Derosa and Holliday deals, but the front office saw an opportunity to add to a core of Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Molina and had their most active period of in-season acquisitions in years.

4. Co-Aces and another MVP

-Chris Carpenter returned as good as ever after missing most of the past two seasons with injuries and Adam Wainwright overcame an early season struggle with his command to post his best season. Together the Cardinals 1-2 punch combined to throw 425.2 innings and led the N.L. in many different categories. Wainwright led the senior circuit with 233 innings pitched and 19 wins, and Carpenter led the pack with a 2.24 ERA. Albert Pujols won his second straight and third MVP overall, after posting a .327/.443/.648 line to go along with 47 homers, 124 runs, and 135 RBI’s. Advanced statistics have the trio of Carpenter, Wainwright, and Pujols combining for 19.7 Wins Above Replacement, which is actually above what the Cardinals posted as a team (18.8)! *This is because of the large amount of negative value the Cardinals got from under performing players like Khalil Greene, Joe Thurston, etc.

3. Schumaker moves to second

-In what started out as a crazy idea in spring training, the Schumaker experiment was largely considered a success by the end of the season. Schumaker struggled defensively early on, but was actually a league average second basemen defensively in the 2^nd half of the season per UZR. Going forward, if Schumaker continues to hit like he has, the Cardinals have their answer to their decade long second base carousel.

2. Division Champs

-Led by another MVP season from Albert Pujols, a stellar 1-2-3 rotation punch in Carpenter, Wainwright, and Pineiro, and through mid-season acquisitions like Matt Holliday, The Cardinals won 91 games and their first division crown since 2006. Although they were swept out of the first round by the Dodgers, it was still a good year for the Redbirds, who were the heavy underdog to the Cubs going into the season.

1. The Mid-Summer Classic

 -When fans think back about the 2009 season, the biggest event of the year was undoubtedly the return of the All-Star Game to St. Louis. Events like the Home Run Derby, Celebrity Softball Game, and other various events provided memories for fans as the All-Star Game was back in St. Louis for the first time since 1966.

-I hope everyone enjoys this list, and I’m sure some stuff is being left out, like Whitey Herzog’s Hall of Fame induction and Albert’s act of kindness to the man that fell out of the stands in Pittsburgh. Overall it was one heck of a year in Cardinal baseball, and fans can only hope 2010 will be as special as 2009.

No Comments »

No Comments »

Felipe Lopez is part of a possible plan B for the Cardinals.

                It’s been an interesting week in Cardinal Nation, as John Mozeliak announced on the Bernie Show that the club did make a formal offer to Scott Boras for Matt Holliday before the Winter Meetings closed on Thursday. Mozeliak stated yesterday that the Cardinals should know something within the next 48 hours on Matt, and Joe Strauss states the club might not know something until early next week. Making the offer came after months of speculation about what Holliday’s market would be and posturing by Scott Boras. Mozeliak in his radio interview yesterday stated that he doesn’t feel like another club is currently bidding on Holliday, but things could always change very quickly, especially if Jason Bay signs. Not many details are known about the offer to Holliday, but Strauss did say a club source told him that the average annual value of the deal is under $18 million per season. Strauss says it’s significant that the deal isn’t for $18 million annually, because Holliday already rejected a deal that would have paid him that from the Rockies before last off-season. What isn’t said in the Strauss article was that the offer from the Rockies was only for four years and that he was two years away from free agency at the time, and Scott Boras almost always has his clients test the waters of free agency. It’s been rumored that the Cardinals would like to lock Holliday up with a 6 year deal worth $96 million, which comes out to $16 million per season. There is a big difference in offering a Scott Boras client 4 years and $72 million two years away from free agency and offering a 6 year deal when Holliday is a free agent in a market that isn’t as robust as Mr. Boras would have hoped. If the Cardinals did offer Holliday 6 years and $96 million, I don’t expect Holliday to take it. Any notions of a “home-town discount” have been squashed by Boras, who appears to be waiting on Jason Bay to sign with someone so he can hopefully drum up more interest in Holliday. I am happy the Cardinals made an offer, because it does show Boras and Holliday they are serious in their pursuit. If the Cardinals ultimately end up signing Matt they will likely have to up their offer some, but they at least are talking dollars with Boras instead of bantering through the media like much of early last week.

                Since Mozeliak has stated that he will know where the Cardinals stand by sometime next week, Cardinal fans should also be aware of what a potential plan B could look like for the Redbirds. Once again Joe Strauss provides some insight, stating that the Cardinals would have interest in bringing back Mark Derosa and signing free agent Felipe Lopez, who batted .385 for the Cardinals down the stretch in 2008. Lopez and Derosa likely wouldn’t improve the team as much as Holliday would, but they would be solid additions. In this scenario, Derosa would likely be the everyday left fielder, and Lopez would become the club’s third basemen. I have already stated that a healthy Mark Derosa could be worth 2.5-3 Wins Above Replacement out in left, and Lopez is coming off of a spectacular 4.6 WAR season as the primary second basemen for Arizona and Milwaukee. Lopez’s improvement over previous seasons came from having a 7.6 UZR in the field and having one of his finest offensive campaigns of his career. Lopez had a .310 average to go along with a .383 on-base-percentage and a .427 slugging percentage. Although Lopez hit more line drives and ground balls and decreased the amount of fly balls he has typically hit, he had a Batting Average of Balls in Play that was nearly 40 points above his career average, so some regression on offensive should be expected in 2010. Defensively Lopez has been slightly above average in 90 games at third base in his career, so if the Cardinals did sign the 29 year old they could probably expect to see something close to a 3 WAR season from him. Signing Lopez might only be a 1 WAR improvement over someone like David Freese who plays for the minimum, but as long as the club could sign Lopez to a 1-2 year deal I think it would be a good idea. With the Cardinals needing offense badly, it wouldn’t hurt to have a versatile switch-hitter like Lopez around for the right price.

                This next week figures to be a very pivotal one of the Cardinals, as they will know if they are in the Holliday hunt or not. Everything else this off-season is dictated upon whether #15 comes back, but if not the club is prepared to explore other options. I hope Holliday does re-sign, but if not the Cardinals have the backup plans in place to help them stay competitive in 2010.

2 Comments »

Brad Penny should be a solid middle of the rotation starter for the Cardinals.

                With the Winter Meetings in full swing there has been plenty of buzz surrounding Cardinal Nation. The club addressed its rotation with the signing of Brad Penny, but the bigger news is still to come. John Mozeliak and the Cardinals have still not decided what direction to go in regarding the Matt Holliday situation, but will need to do so soon. If Holliday is not retained, Mozeliak will look to upgrade the offense at third base, left field, or both while also looking into adding another starting pitcher, possibly one of the rehabbing pitchers that I wrote about. Another consideration is adding a bench bat, and Ryan Church is a name that apparently is getting some consideration. As you can see it has been a very busy couple of days, and with a day and a half still left at the Winter Meetings there still may be time for more fireworks for the Cardinals.

                I thought John Mozeliak did a good job in grabbing Brad Penny on Monday. The base salary of the contract is $7.5 million, and Penny has incentives that can take the deal all the way up to $9 million if he reaches 204 innings. This is a very solid sign for the Cardinals. They were able to add a starter without committing to a multi-year deal and signed a pitcher that should mesh well with Dave Duncan. Penny appears to be fully recovered from his shoulder issues that plagued him in 2008, as he was able to throw 173 innings this past season. Penny struggled in the American League, but moving to the more pitcher friendly N.L. should help him. After getting released by the Red Sox in 2009, Penny signed with the San Francisco Giants and had a 2.59 ERA down the stretch. Penny probably isn’t 2.59 ERA good, but he should still be a solid middle of the rotation starter along with Kyle Lohse. Even though Penny struggled in Boston for most of the year, he still amassed 2.5 Wins Above Replacement and has been a consistent 3 WAR pitcher for most of his years in the N.L. Considering that market value for WAR pays a pitcher around $4.4 million, if Penny stays at a 2.5 WAR level or makes a return to 3 WAR the Cardinals could have a nice value for their $7.5 to $9 million dollars.

                It is also well-known that the Cardinals will have to commit to what they are going to do to address their offense soon. Scott Boras continues to play the waiting game on Matt Holliday, but the Cardinals can only wait so long before some of the other bats begin to sign elsewhere. Joe Strauss reports that there is still significant interest in bringing back Derosa to split time with Freese and Craig at third and left field, but Derosa has garnered interest from around a dozen teams. If Derosa is brought back, the Cardinals would probably look to add another starting pitcher to the mix, which is a good idea. I think Jaime Garcia has the stuff to be an effective major league pitcher, but it is also unreasonable to expect him to be the #5 starter for the whole season considering this is his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. Strauss has reported in his daily chats that the Cardinals are also interested in bringing in a set-up reliever, and are meeting with Octavio Dotel’s agent today. I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in Dotel at the right price, as he still misses bats (10 plus K’s per 9 ip in his career) and brings a 3.7 ERA and FIP (expected ERA based on controllable pitcher skills like walks and strikeouts) to the fold nearly every season. Two other possibilities for the offense were also banded about on Tuesday. Tony La Russa continues to push for Miguel Tejada, and Strauss suggests that the Cardinals have some interest in Ryan Church. Tejada still hits for a decent average, but doesn’t walk and is limited to third. If the Cardinals don’t get Holliday, I really feel like Derosa would be the best fit because he could split time with Freese at third and with Allen Craig in left. Tejada at a low enough price would be alright, but I just don’t think he fits as well as Derosa does. Ryan Church would be an interesting option. In a team full of RH bats, Church would be a welcome addition from the left side. Church hits RHP very well, to the tone of an .895 OPS in 2009, and could be an interesting platoon option with Allen Craig in left field. Craig mashed left-handers for an OPS that was over 1.000 in AAA last season, which translates into roughly an .850 OPS in the Majors. Church also is a solid defender, as his defense was worth 3.2 runs above an average outfielder in 2009. I would still prefer Derosa instead of Tejada, but Church should be a consideration for the Cardinals if either of those two are brought in.

                Overall this has been a busy couple of days for the Cardinals. They were able to come to terms with Brad Penny, a solid sign, but insist that his signing had nothing to do with the Holliday situation. The Cardinals will have to resolve what direction they are going to commit to soon, as other plan B options might sign elsewhere if the club waits too long on Matt Holliday. Other names are starting to pop onto the radar, such as set-up reliever Octavio Dotel and outfielder Ryan Church, so it is clear the Cardinals do have several backup plans to improve the team if Holliday leaves. Although the Winter Meetings will be coming to a close tomorrow, there will still be plenty of time for action so it is definitely something that is worth paying close attention to.

No Comments »

Incidents like these fill Vincente Padilla's past.

                 With the Winter Meetings starting next week, the next couple of days figure to be a very busy time for the Cardinals. There will be rumors flying, and since it can be hard to decipher fact from fiction coverage surrounding the Winter Meetings has little backbone to it. It’s truly a crazy time of year for baseball fans to try to keep things straight. In Cardinal Nation, Joe Strauss’s article and tweets were once again the story that has Cardinal Nation buzzing, so let’s cut to the chase.

                -Strauss stated that John Mozeliak and other members of the front office have expressed their concern on how much to offer Holliday since Pujols will need an extension sometime soon. I am sure John Mozeliak did say that, but I also think others are blowing this out of control by questioning why the Cardinals didn’t realize that in the first place. I don’t think the front office was naive enough to think that Holliday would come cheap, and it’s not like the fact that Pujols’s contract will expire after 2011 is breaking news either. The Cardinals knew that it would be expensive to keep Pujols and Holliday, and why it’s a big story that they might not be able to afford both isn’t exactly shocking news. All the Cardinals ever said was they would make an aggressive attempt to sign Holliday, and they very well might. They never stated that they were going to bring Holliday back at any cost or would be the highest bidder.

                -Strauss said that the Cardinals might be interested in bringing Derosa back if Holliday walks to split time at third and in left with David Freese and Allen Craig, which I don’t think would be a bad idea. Signing Derosa and having a three man rotation for two positions would be a better option than signing two players like Miguel Tejada and Xavier Nady. Tejada and Nady would be pricey, and I think the best way to spread around the dollars this off-season is to bring back Derosa then put the rest of the dollars into pitching. The offense wouldn’t be the strength of the team, but it would be a better offense than most of last year where Joe Thurston, Rick Ankiel, Khalil Greene, Chris Duncan, and an injured Mark Derosa took a lot of plate appearances.

                -Speaking of pitching, according to Matthew Leach the Cardinals could have some interest in Vincente Padilla. Padilla has a live arm and a sinking fastball, which could be a good match for Dave Duncan, but he also comes with some serious baggage and a poor reputation in the clubhouse. Personally I’d much rather see someone like Jon Garland brought in than Vincente Padilla. Consider their Bill James Projections for next season:

Basically, Garland is better in every category except strikeouts, which he offsets by posting a lower walk rate. If the Cardinals are going to spend money on an innings eating #4 type starter next season, I’d rather have Garland, who is a better pitcher than Padilla and doesn’t come with the negative reputation.

                -Derrick Goold believes that the Cardinals could enter the bidding for one of the high risk pitchers that I’ve discussed, which is an idea that I am obviously on board with. It’s hard to say what pitchers are healthy from a fan’s point of view, but if the Cardinals were able to get 140-150 innings from a guy like Sheets, Harden, or Bedard, it would probably end up being a very nice value to the club.

                -By my next post Wednesday, I’m sure we will have a clearer picture of what John Mozeliak is going to do this off-season. Eventually the club will have to decide on what side of their parallel tracks off-season plan they are going to follow, and it will be very interesting to see how it all shakes out.

No Comments »

Jason LaRue is likely the last signing before Winter Meetings next week.

                With the first transactions of the off-season made on Monday and the winter meetings being less than a week away, the off-season is finally starting to pick up steam. Teams also had to offer arbitration to their free agents by 11:59 Tuesday if they wanted to receive draft compensation, and surprisingly the Cardinals offered arbitration to Mark Derosa and Joel Pineiro to go along with Matt Holliday. Both Derrick Goold and Joe Strauss have left some interesting tidbits in their articles in the past couple of days, providing some insight into what John Mozeliak and other members of the front office are considering in case Matt Holliday stays or leaves.

                On Monday the Cardinals made two moves, first re-signing backup catcher Jason LaRue and then bringing in infielder Ruben Gotay on a minor league deal that includes an invite to spring training. Financial terms of LaRue’s deal haven’t been disclosed, but he is coming off of a contract that paid him $950,000 last season and figures to make around the same amount this year. Personally I have no problem with re-upping LaRue. Statistically he has been worth 0.5 and 0.3 Wins Above Replacement the past two years and provided $2.1 and $1.4 million dollars of value, so as long as his new contract is around the $1 million mark like it was this past year, the Cardinals did the right thing. It should also be noted that LaRue is also well-liked by pitching coach Dave Duncan and the rest of the Cardinal staff, which I still feel is important. I don’t think it’s a good idea to only rely on statistics or only on human perception, and LaRue appears to be a solid sign from both points of view. Gotay, who will be 27 next year, has the possibility of making the major league roster. A natural second baseman, Gotay has also played some third in his career, showing the versatility that La Russa loves to have on his bench. Gotay put up a .272/.429/.450 line for the AAA team of the Diamondbacks this past season, which included 103 walks to only 69 strikeouts. Gotay, a switch-hitter, also had a .973 OPS (on base + slugging) against right-handers but only a .561 OPS against lefties, so Gotay would be a better option to play against right-handers late in the game. Defensively, Gotay is below average at second, posting a career -8.1 runs below average over 163 games, a number that agrees with his Total Zone rating throughout the minor leagues. At third-base, however Gotay might be an average fielder, as he has a +2 Total Zone Rating over 87 games in the minor leagues. Although these weren’t huge moves, Mozeliak did a good job of adding some pieces that can help supplement the roster, providing slightly above replacement level production at a low cost.

                Last night, the Cardinals also offered arbitration to 3 of their free agents, which included type A free agent Matt Holliday and type B free agents Mark Derosa and Joel Pineiro. If all three decline arbitration and sign elsewhere, the Cardinals could have up to 4 extra picks in the draft before the second round next season, which would help re-stock a farm system that was hit hard by mid-season trades in 2009. Honestly I was pleasantly surprised when the Cardinals offered arbitration to both Pineiro and Derosa, as I was only expecting one of them getting an offer, with Derosa being the most likely. If Pineiro and Derosa both accept, it isn’t the worse thing in the world to have both back on one year deals, and the potential reward of a supplemental pick for each player was worth the risk in offering arbitration. Derosa on a one year deal could either play a combination of third and left if Holliday leaves or be the primary third-basemen again if the Cardinals do re-sign Matt Holliday. Pineiro on a one year deal fits the mold of what I have said the Cardinals should be looking to do all along, which is to avoid multi-year deals with pitchers. Mozeliak stated in Strauss’s article that the Cardinals would prefer to have shorter deals rather than longer ones, which is something that I agree 100% with. It was two solid moves by John Mozeliak, and the Cardinals will either get the benefits in the draft next June or on the major league club for another year.

                Goold and Strauss have also offered some interesting names that the Cardinals are considering if the Cardinals do lose out on Matt Holliday, with both agreeing that Xavier Nady (profiled here) could be an option for left-field. Strauss believes that the Cardinals could pursue someone to play third along with a bat like Nady in left if Holliday walks, but would probably be comfortable giving third to David Freese (profiled here) if Holliday were to return. Goold believes that some in the organization think that Miguel Tejada could be an option for third, but he would have to be willing to move over from shortstop first. Tejada wasn’t offered arbitration by the Astros, so the Cardinals wouldn’t have to surrender their first rounder if they signed him. Tejada, who will be 36 next year, offers a little pop but not much else. His .313 average this past season was largely built on a Batting Average of Balls in Play that was around 20 points above his career average, so Tejada isn’t likely to be a .310 plus hitter again next season. Tejada also had just a 2.9% walk rate in 2009, so he wouldn’t help fix the problem that the Cardinals have with plate discipline. Tejada did hit 46 doubles to go along with 14 homers this past season, so his .795 ops was largely based on his .455 slugging percentage. Basically a good way to think of Tejada offensively is Brendan Ryan with 50 extra points in slugging %. Defensively, comparing Tejada with Brendan Ryan would not be a good idea. Tejada posted a -13.9 UZR this past season, but that was at shorstop. At third base, his UZR would likely go up a bit, and considering as recently as 2008 Tejada had a 9.3 UZR at short its possible that Tejada could be an average to -5 runs below average at the hot corner. Would it be a good idea to sign Tejada? I don’t think it would be the best way to allocate the team’s resources. Considering Tejada would likely want a 2-3 year deal, I don’t think the difference in offensive production of Tejada over David Freese is worth the downgrade defensively to go along with the large salary of Tejada. Freese is a good defensive third sacker who will be making the minimum salary next season, so the Cardinals can improve the team more by taking a pass on Tejada and using their dollars elsewhere.

                In conclusion, it’s been a nice start to the Cardinal off-season, but the moves that will define this winter as a success or failure have yet to be made. The Cardinals picked up some nice bench pieces in LaRue and Gotay, and did the right thing by offering Holliday, Derosa, and Pineiro arbitration, but with the winter meetings just a week away, John Mozeliak will soon have to commit to which side of his parallel tracks he is going to follow to avoid the “paralysis” of the Holliday situation. This is arguably the hottest time of the year for rumors, and this next week figures to help paint a clearer picture of what the 2010 Cardinals could look like come opening day.

No Comments »