PECOTA sees another division championship for the Cards next season

It’s late January, which can only mean one thing: it’s time for Baseball Prospectus to release its PECOTA projections for the 2010 season!  Not enthused? Well that’s ok, because there are some common misconceptions about what a projection system is.  I also encourage any fan to subscribe to BP, as it really is a great site for people who enjoy the statistical side of the game.  (As a side note, I can’t go into specific player statistics because it’s subscriber only content and I don’t want to get in trouble for being a stat pirate, if there is such a thing)

What it is:

-PECOTA takes into account numerous player information, matches them with comparable players, and then predicts what the player will do in the subsequent season(s) based on that information.  How accurate are the projections?  Statistics have shown that there is a .7-.8 correlation between predicted and actual stats, which is strong, but not perfect.  Basically there is too strong of correlation to completely dismiss PECOTA but too weak to trust it as the absolute truth.

-PECOTA should be used to get a general idea of what a fan can reasonably expect to see from a player next season. 

-When looking at any one specific player, the projection may seem to understate or overstate what the player will likely do.  This is because the PECOTA projection system divides its projection into ten categories of percentiles, and uses the 50th percentile score, which is obviously the midpoint.  You’ll see what I mean by this a little later.

-As far as the Cardinals are concerned, PECOTA expects them to score 745 runs and give up 702 runs.  Last year the Cardinals scored 730 runs and gave up 640, so while the system expects the offense to improve slightly, it expects some regression in the pitching/defense department.  It may seem hard to believe that with a full season of Holliday the Cardinal offense is only projected to score 15 more runs, but remember the system only uses the 50% score when running simulations.  Elite players such as Pujols and Holliday routinely end up performing in their 70-80 and even in their 90th percentile projections for the season, which would obviously raise the amount of runs the Cardinals would score.  For the pitching, PECOTA is very conservative in their projections for co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.  Since Carpenter basically missed 2 years out of the last 3 and Wainwright had his first break-out year in 2009, the projections for the two are probably low.  Still, it’s nice to know as a Cardinal fan that conservative estimates of the pitching/defense have the team only giving up around 700 runs. 

-Using the projected runs scored and runs allowed, PECOTA expects the Cardinals to win the Central division with an 86-76 record.  Like I have said before, these projections are probably a tad conservative, but still it’s nice to know that if things don’t go as well as most fans expect the Cardinals are still predicted to be 10 games over the .500 mark and win their division by a comfortable 5 games over the Reds and 9 games over the Cubs. 

-Once again it’s important to not put too much stock into these projections, but it is nice to know that the Cardinals are considered the favorite going into the year.  They still have to play the games on the field, but Tony LaRussa has a roster that has the most talent in the division to work with.

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Some snippets from around Cardinal nation and the rest of the league:

-Rich Hill was signed as a non-roster invitee-It’s hard not to like moves like this, as there cost is basically free in terms of baseball dollars and players in this position traditionally have something to prove. Hill was once a young, talented, left-handed starter who struck out around 8.5 batters per nine while walking under 3, but has fallen off of a cliff the past couple of seasons. While suffering through physical and mechanical issues in 2008 and 2009 Hill never regained his 2007 form, but Hill and the Cardinals swear he is healthy and ready to go at the start of spring. For what it’s worth (probably little), the Chone projection system has Hill pegged at a 4.78 ERA, a 4.82 FIP, 96 innings pitched, and to be worth 0.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2010. Hill will have to earn a spot on the big league club this spring, but if Hill can resemble anything close to his 3.1 WAR form of a couple years ago John Mozeliak will have a real bargain on his hands.

-The signing of Rich Hill looks to end the pursuit of John Smoltz, despite his reported preference to return-I have to admit I was hoping for a Cardinals-Smoltz reunion in 2010, but with Tony LaRussa wanting the remaining “bullet” to be used on a position player that can play third, Smoltz was priced out of the Cardinal budget. Smoltz would have been a nice fit, as he would give the club some flexibility in the late innings or in the back end of the rotation. The extra depth that Smoltz provides would have been nice, but typically there is pitching, F.A.T., or free available talent, that is out there during the season. Two examples of this in 2009 would be Smoltz, who the Cardinals signed after he was released by the Red Sox and our very own Brad Penny, who was also released by Boston and picked up by the Giants.

-Joe Strauss suggested today that Felipe Lopez might be out of the price range as well, with Joe Crede being a potential player of interest. Crede likely wouldn’t command much guaranteed money, as back problems have plagued him the past several seasons. Still, Crede has a tremendous glove at third base and has a little pop in his bat. Crede was worth 1.9 WAR in just 90 games with the Twins in 2009, and would represent some competition/insurance for David Freese. This is a signing that would make sense for the Cardinals, as the Cardinals wouldn’t likely be on the hook for a lot of guaranteed cash, would have some insurance for Freese, and could still give Freese ample playing time when giving Crede a rest when his back inevitably flares up. Overall Chone expects Freese to have a higher OPS -.777 to .733, but Crede to have the superior glove-5 runs above average to 0.
-The Cubs signed Xavier Nady, who I liked as a potential Matt Holliday replacement back in November. Nady looks to fill the hole created when Reed Johnson became a free agent, and figures to be a nice pickup for Chicago. Look for Nady to platoon with Kosuke Fukudome most of the time, but he also represents insurance in case Alfonso Soriano’s injuries continue to hamper his effectiveness.

-Ben Sheets signed with the A’s-Cardinal fans know Sheets well from his tenure in Milwaukee, and that when he is healthy is a very good pitcher. Sheets was worth 4.4 WAR in his last healthy season of 2008, and cashed in on that potential by inking a one year deal that will pay him 10 million plus in 2010. That may seem like a lot of money from a team like the A’s, but Billy Beane had the cash to spend after missing out on Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre, and Aroldis Chapman this winter. Even if Sheets completely fails, it’s only a one year deal, so it’s not as if this is a potentially crippling contract for the A’s to take on. If Sheets is healthy however, Oakland made a very nice signing. If they are in contention, Beane can hold on to Sheets for a playoff run, but if the A’s fall out of contention, Beane can trade Sheets for prospects. This is what Beane did with Matt Holliday last year, and while Sheets likely won’t command the return that Holliday did, Beane still has a nice potential asset on his hands. Personally I think Beane will trade Sheets if he is having a good year and Oakland isn‘t on the cusp of winning the division. Assuming the economic climate in free agency is similar next year, and Sheets is a type A free agent, the likelihood of Sheets getting a multi-year deal with his medical history is slim. If Sheets is unlikely to get a multi-year deal somewhere, he would be more likely to accept arbitration, where he would receive an increase from his 2010 salary, a risk that the A’s would likely be better off not taking. This provides more incentive for General Manager Billy Beane to move Sheets at the first sign of the A’s falling out of the race.

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Jon Jay just might be the lefty hitting outfield backup many fans are calling for.

                There has been a lot talk recently of what the Cardinals should do for their bench, whether it’s clamoring for a left-handed hitting outfielder or a backup infielder. In a previous post, I suggested that the Cardinals go after an additional starter for depth in the rotation. If John Mozeliak does use his remaining “bullet” on pitching, I figured it would be worthwhile to examine the proposed bench as it stands today, using projected stats from the Chone system.

-Julio Lugo-Lugo was acquired from the Red Sox for Chris Duncan last July, and will cost the league minimum in 2010. Lugo, a right-handed bat, offers a little pop in his bat but is a minus defender at both second base and shortstop. Chone expects Lugo to decline significantly at the plate in 2010, going from an on-base percentage and OPS (on-base + slugging) of .352 and .756 in 2009 to .332 and .687 in 2010. The downward trend in Lugo’s offense is coming from his batting average on balls in play, or BABIP for short. In 2009 Lugo hit .330 on balls in play, which is 13 points above his career average. Chone expects Lugo’s BABIP to return to closer to his career level in 2010, which would explain the projected drop in offense. That would seem to make sense, but Lugo’s BABIP wasn’t high in 2009 because of dumb luck, but because Lugo hit 4% more line drives in 2009. The more line drives a batter hits, the more balls in play that turn into hits, so it’s easy to see how Lugo turned in such a high BABIP in 2009. If Lugo did become a better hitter in 2009, it would mean that his 2010 projected Chone numbers would be low, and that Cardinal fans should look at his Chone projection at the low end of the scale for Lugo’s offense next season. Defensively Lugo projects to be 6 runs below average, which would make Lugo 0.4 wins above replacement, or WAR, a number that could be higher if Lugo keeps his offensive improvements from a year ago.

-Allen Craig-I have already written extensively about Craig, but for a short recap Craig is a right-handed hitter who can play both left field and third. Craig’s value comes in his bat, as Chone projects him to have a .282/.338/.459 line for a .797 OPS. Craig is a rookie, and will also play for the league minimum in 2010. Overall Chone expects Craig to be worth 1.7 WAR in 461 plate appearances.

-John Jay-Jay is a left handed hitting outfielder who often gets overlooked because he doesn’t put up eye popping numbers. Chone projects Jay to have a .277/.333/.401 line in 2010 for a .734 OPS in roughly 400 at bats. Jay is also fairly decent runner, stealing 20 bases at Memphis in 2009. Most of Jay’s value lies in his glove, as Chone projects him to be worth 10 runs defensively in 2010. Combing near league average offense with excellent outfield defense means Jay would be worth 1.7 WAR in 2010, or a full win over what Cardinal hero Jim Edmonds projects to be.

-Jason LaRue-LaRue enters his third season as the backup to catcher Yadier Molina. Chone doesn’t think that LaRue will be much of an offensive threat this year, projecting him to post a .205/.277/.316 line for a .593 OPS in just over 100 ab’s. Overall Chone predicts that LaRue will be 0.7 win player in 2010, which is just fine for a backup catcher.

-Ruben Gotay-Rounding out the bench is the switch hitting Ruben Gotay. Gotay is a second basemen by trade but will likely play all around the diamond if he is able to make the 25 man roster. In 344 plate appearances in 2010, Chone projects Gotay to hit .248/.358/.374 line for a .732 OPS. The most interesting thing about Gotay’s line is his projected 14% walk rate, which would be a welcome addition to an otherwise impatient bench. Chone sees Gotay as a 1.2 WAR player in 2010, which would be fine production from a non-roster invitee.

                As it stands today the Cardinal bench looks to be a solid, yet unspectacular one. Each player has his strengths and weaknesses, and everyone but LaRue offers the ability to play multiple positions. That kind of versatility is a must for any club that Tony LaRussa manages. Jay offers excellent outfield defense, decent speed, but little pop. Craig can slug the ball, but doesn’t walk very much and is a work in progress defensively. Gotay is a switch hitter and offers good plate discipline, but likely won’t play at his primary position very often. Lugo offers some speed as well, but is a minus defender, and LaRue is a decent backup catcher. Each of these players should be fine in a part-time role, but only Craig figures to be a worthwhile everyday option if someone were to get injured. When you consider this group to the 2009 Cardinal bench, the 2010 bunch should be a nice upgrade. Duncan, Thurston, K. Greene, and Ankiel didn’t exactly give the Cardinals good production in 2009, so as long as everyone stays healthy this 2010 bench has a chance to make valuable contributions to the roster.

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Brad Penny should be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher in 2010.

                Matt Holliday has obviously been getting most of the attention from Cardinal fans this off-season, and deservedly so, but signing Brad Penny was also a significant move for John Mozeliak this off-season. Penny is expected to fill the hole in the middle of the rotation that was created when Joel Pineiro became a free agent. On the surface, it would seem like a downgrade for the Cardinals to replace a pitcher that threw 214 innings of 3.49 ERA ball for a pitcher who had a 4.88 ERA in 173.1 innings, but what Pineiro and Penny did in 2009 may not be what to expect from these hurlers in 2010.

                Joel Pineiro had his “career year” in 2009 at age 31, when he went 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA in 214 innings. Pineiro started throwing a sinker, and it helped him increase his ground out to fly out ratio, decrease the number of line drives that batters hit off him, hardly ever give up home runs (.46 home runs per nine innings), and lower his walk rate to a career best 1.14 per nine innings. These are all good things for Pineiro, but it should be noted that very few pitchers in baseball can maintain consistent success when they rely on pinpoint command like Pineiro does, and because of that it’s reasonable to expect some regression in his numbers in 2010. The Chone projection system, one of the most accurate systems out there, expects Pineiro to post a 4.37 ERA in 169 innings over 28 starts, which would be 24 runs better than what a replacement level pitcher would be in the same amount of innings and starts (for an example of what a replacement level pitcher is, think Brad Thompson). So while Pineiro is still expected to be a quality pitcher in 2010, it appears unlikely that Joel will duplicate his stellar 2009.

                Brad Penny is coming off of a very rough 2009 in which he went 11-9 with a 4.88 ERA in 173.1 innings. Most of Penny’s peripheral statistics fit in line with his career averages, but Penny suffered from gopher-itis. Penny’s career home runs allowed per nine innings is .88, but in 2009 that number rose to 1.14. Chone expects Penny’s home run rate to return to his career levels in 2010, calling for him to have a 4.13 ERA in 159 innings over 27 starts. Those numbers would make Penny 22 runs above replacement, which is two runs below what Pineiro is expected to post but in ten less innings, so basically Chone thinks Pineiro and Penny will provide equal value in 2010.

                Just because Chone projects Penny and Pineiro to be equal in 2010 doesn’t mean that they will be, however, as Penny and Pineiro have different pitching styles. Pineiro’s success and failure relies almost entirely on the defense behind him, while Penny garners more strikeouts. Simply put, Penny’s projection is less likely to vary because he doesn’t rely on his defense as much, while Pineiro’s numbers could be much worse if he has bad luck on balls put in play. Also, Penny signed for 1/$7.5 while Pineiro might still get a multi-year deal, so contractually the scale slightly favors Penny again. Overall it appears John Mozeliak made the right call in choosing Penny over Pineiro, both statistically and financially, and Cardinal fans shouldn’t worry about seeing Joel sign with another team.

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-Since McGwire admitted his steroid use several days ago, I am going to take a page out of his book and “not talk about the past.” I personally am very tired of hearing about performance enhancing drugs, and the sooner the media finds another topic to focus on the better.

-There isn’t a lot of other Cardinal related news at the moment besides Big Mac’s admission, but there are a few tidbits about players of interest to the Redbirds.

-Ryan Church, possible candidate for the 4^th outfielder role, is close to a contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Church would have been a nice fit for the Cardinals, but seeing him sign with the Pirates is not a big deal. Church is just the type of player that John Mozeliak could have considered for the bench, not the only one. There are still many other players out there that can provide similar production that Church could have provided.

-The signing of Church likely means the Pirates will be staying away from Rick Ankiel. Scott Boras, Ankiel’s agent, has scared off a lot of teams because he is looking for a multi-year deal, which teams are obviously scared of giving him. Ankiel struggled horribly in 2009, and until Boras comes down on his demands, Ankiel will continue to remain a free agent while others sign. Ankiel’s best bet at his point would be to accept an incentive laden one year year deal in a place that would offer sufficient playing time, which shouldn’t be St. Louis.

-The Cubs are kicking the tires on Ben Sheets. Sheets was one of many pitchers that the Cardinals would likely have had interest in if they didn’t sign Matt Holliday, but is likely too expensive for the Cards at this point.

-The Mets and Dodgers like Joel Pineiro. Back in October, I said that the Cardinals should stay away from the multi-year deal that Pineiro would likely command. Pineiro’s market was likely set by Jason Marquis’s 2 year 15 million dollar deal, which would be a fair price to pay for Pineiro if the Cardinals had a bigger budget.

-In a XM radio interview with Bill Dewitt III over the weekend, Dewitt stated that there is a “slight urgency” to begin discussing a contract extension with Albert Pujols. Dewitt said that the Cardinals don’t want to go into the final year of Pujols’s contract, which runs out after the 2011 season, without an extension. He also said that ideally a deal would be done within the next 3-6 months. I agree with Dewitt in that the Cardinals shouldn’t go into the final season of Pujols’s contract before getting an extension done. I firmly believe that both the Cardinals and Pujols will get something worked out in the end. Both sides have stated that they would like to continue their relationship, and I believe the Cardinals have the finances to get this done.

-That seems to wrap things up in Cardinal nation for now, and it seems that the best hope for Cardinal fans this week is that the media finds a new whipping boy to talk about.

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John Smoltz would be a fine addition to an already robust Cardinal rotation.

                With Matt Holliday signed, the Cardinals filled their biggest and most pressing need, which was to acquire an elite bat to add to the lineup. Filling the left field vacancy isn’t the only need however, as there are other, albeit smaller, holes that John Mozeliak might want to fill before the season starts. Some of the potential needs the Redbirds face going into 2010 include adding another starter, adding a late inning reliever, a third-basemen, and a backup outfielder. The Cardinals are obviously on a limited budget now that they signed Holliday, and it’s being reported Mozeliak may only have $6-7 million left to work with. With a lot of free agents still unsigned, Mozeliak is in a position where he can let the market play out to see what bargains may be available in the next couple of months. It should also be noted that just because Mo’ has $6-7 million left to spend, don’t expect him to use all of his remaining funds before opening day. The Cardinals have traditionally been a team that likes to save some “dry powder” for mid-season acquisitions, which would make sense again in 2010. By saving some money to use at the trade-deadline, Mozeliak can wait to see which area of his club needs to be upgraded the most rather than maxing out his budget in the off-season and inhibiting his in-season flexibility. If the Cardinals are going make a move before the season, however, where should John Mozeliak choose to upgrade?

Late inning relief-The Cardinals currently have Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, and Josh Kinney all vying for bullpen spots heading into 2010. The Cardinals traded away a lot of their relief depth in the Khalil Greene and Mark Derosa deals last summer, but developing relievers hasn’t been a problem for Jeff Luhnow and the player development department and therefore probably isn’t the most pressing need going into next year.

Backup outfielder-With rehabbing Joe Mather the only potential backup outfielder with major league experience, the Cardinals could defintely use a veteran backup outfielder. Ryan Church seems to be a good fit, as he would represent a left-handed option off of the bench and can play all 3 outfield spots at a potentially low cost. A guy like Allen Craig definitely deserves a shot to be on the team, but Mozeliak could do worse than to add a guy like Church and his .787 career ops to help bolster the bench. 

Third base-With David Freese the only legitimate option, the Cardinals’ depth is thin at the hot corner. Freese however, is also the best bet that the club has to fill one of its remaining voids from within. Freese is coming off of an injury riddled season and a recent DUI arrest, but is still a better option than signing a declining Miguel Tejada. The Cardinals should go into 2010 with Freese at the hot corner, and use some of the “dry powder” on a third base upgrade in the season if Freese falters.

Starting Rotation-On paper this is the one area of the club that appears to be set. With Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny, Kyle Lohse, and rookie Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals potentially have a very robust rotation, but the starting pitching depth behind these five is not strong. When you consider that every member of the projected rotation has missed significant time in the last two years due to injury, and that guys like PJ Walters and rule-5 draftee Ben Jukich the “sixth starters,” it would make sense for Mozeliak to add another starting pitcher to the fold before the season. This would enable the Cardinals to start Jaime Garcia in AAA, where he could continue to build up strength after his Tommy John surgery. Ideally a guy like John Smoltz would be signed, but may be out of the Cardinals price range.

                In conclusion, the Cardinals improved their 2010 club tremendously and are probably the division favorites after re-signing Matt Holliday. There are still some potential holes, however, and a limited budget to work with. Although some are calling for a late-inning reliever to help Ryan Franklin close out games or a third-basemen, I think it would make the most sense to add a backup outfielder like Ryan Church and another starting pitcher like John Smoltz. It’s unclear how much wiggle room John Mozeliak would like to keep for the season, but Cardinal fans should be hoping that he uses some of it on either another starting pitcher or a reserve outfielder.

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Cardinal fans are hoping this duo stays together for a long time.

Let’s get straight to the point today:

                Holliday’s deal is a fair one for both the Cardinals and for Holliday, and I think it was a win-win for both sides. Holliday got a large multi-year deal, but not the Mark Texiera money he was after, and the Cardinals can pencil in one of, if not the best left fielders in the game in their lineup behind Pujols. Some are complaining about the amount of years the Cardinals gave Holliday, and it is concerning, but in reality we have no idea if there weren’t any other teams bidding like so many are saying. When a team decides to sign a high caliber free agent, they typically don’t come for three or four year deals. Honestly I would rather have Matt Holliday for 7/120 than Jason Bay for 5/80. Holliday is the far superior player with a better track record of durability (for my take on Bay/Holliday click here). There is also the “Pujols Factor” when analyzing Holliday’s deal. Albert has stated that he will wait and see what improvements the team makes before deciding to sign an extension or not, and signing Holliday ensures that Albert won’t have to carry the offense on his back the way he has in years past. However, this isn’t a post about the contract signed about Matt Holliday, there have been countless other posts on this subject on the internet, and there’s no need to re-hash what everyone else is talking about. Now that Matt Holliday is signed, sealed, and delivered, the elephant in the room is the upcoming extension that the Cardinals would like to give to Albert Pujols. The popular statement among analysts and fans today has been the concern that the Cardinals can’t give 40% of their payroll to two players and still be competitive in the division. It is a concern, but I would like to point out that although that is a lot of money to pay two players, the players that the Cardinals would be paying are obviously tremendous. In the past, there has been a lot of money “wasted” on players and the Cardinals were still able to be competitive. Consider the percentage of payroll given to these players last year:

2009-The Cardinals were able to win 91 games while committing $30.5 million dollars to Scott Spiezio, Adam Kennedy, Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Khalil Greene,Todd Wellemeyer, and Troy Glaus. Collectively, these players combined to produce -1.7 Wins Above Replacement for the Cardinals. To call the group “dead payroll” is being generous, as producing 0 WAR would have been a large improvement.

                    So if the Cardinals can give over 30 million dollars to a group of players who provided negative value to the team and win over 90 games, I firmly believe the Cardinals can win while committing around 40% of the payroll to two outstanding players. If Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the player development department can supplement the roster with cheap 0-3 service time guys, the Cardinals can win. The Cardinals won’t need a Colby Rasmus or a player of that caliber to come up every year, as the core of the team is already in place. What the Redbirds will need is a steady stream of talent to help supplement the marquee players. Also, with the Cardinals ability to bargain shop on the waiver wire like they did in 2009 with the Julio Lugo and John Smoltz acquisitions, I believe the team is in good shape going forward. In short, be happy Cardinal fans, this team is in good shape, and also did the first step to ensure that #5 will stay in town for a long time.

*I wanted to have this post up Wednesday, but the site was down.  Continue to expect the Wednesday/Saturday post format from now on.

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                It appears that barring any 11th hour mystery teams entering the fold, the Cardinals and John Mozeliak might finally get the player they have targeted all off-season as early as next week. In an article written by Derrick Goold, some sources within the Cardinal organization say that a deal for Holliday is “gaining momentum” and that progress is “strong.” The length of the deal has varied, with most sources stating that it is between 5-8 years. It’s likely that the contract would be 5-6 guaranteed years, with several option years on the end. The likely terms of the option years would probably either be team options or vesting ones based on Holliday’s performance. The exact dollar amount is also an unknown at this point, but it is reported that Boras and Holliday want an $18 million average annual value. Since Jason Bay’s contract with the Mets is a $16.5 million AAV, it’s likely that Holliday will fall somewhere between $16.5 and $18 million range. It should also be known that any potential deal for Holliday will also include a no-trade clause, especially since the Cardinals gave one to Kyle Lohse last off-season and that Scott Boras has stated it is a priority for Holliday.
                Overall I like this potential deal for the Cardinals. Signing Holliday would improve the club more than any other move that John Mozeliak could make (barring an unforeseen trade) this winter. With Allen Craig likely being worth around 1.5 Wins Above Replacement, if Holliday could replicate last year’s 5.7 WAR season it would be a 4.2 Win upgrade for the Cardinals. When you consider Holliday’s salary will likely be around $17-$18 million (or less if it is a back-loaded contract), the Cardinals would be paying around $4.17 million dollars per Win, which is a fair price. In fact, Holliday could very well be a nice value for the Cardinals next season at that price, because of where the Cardinals sit on the Win Curve.  *Pease note that the vertical column on the graph represents the $ value attached to each win for a team*

Team Wins
 
                As you can see, the value of wins is not equal across the scale. A 5 WAR player to an awful team like the Pirates, who would be on the far left end of the scale is not worth the same amount of money as the same 5 WAR player is to a team in the middle of the bell curve, which represents a team like the Cardinals. Conversely, a 5 WAR player to an excellent team like the Yankees (who would be on the far right) isn’t worth very much either, as the Yankees will likely win around 100 games and the extra wins that the player would represent doesn’t change the odds of making the playoffs much (for a great read on this subject check out this article.)The excellent writers (Erik Manning and Steve Sommer) at Play a Hard Nine have projected the Cardinals at around a 87 win team without Matt Holliday, which is 3 wins above the second place Cubs in their projections. Adding Matt Holliday would likely put the Cardinals in the 90 win range, which almost guarantees a playoff berth. The extra revenue that comes with a playoff berth means there is a higher incentive to add a player that represents “the final piece of the puzzle” to a team that is close to the 90 win level like the Cardinals. Even though the Cardinals are projected to win the central division by 3 games, it should also be noted that most projection systems can vary by as many as 5 to 10 wins in either direction, so to not sign Holliday because the Cardinals are projected to win is a risky strategy.
                Overall Matt Holliday is a unique opportunity for the Cardinals. He represents the biggest potential upgrade that the Cardinals could do via free agency at a point where any extra wins are at a premium for the organization. The amount of years being discussed are a bit concerning, but the Cardinals are at a “win now” stage with Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright, and Molina all in the primes of their careers. If Holliday is signed sometime early next week, Cardinal fans should be happy that John Mozeliak made the best possible upgrade he could make this off-season.

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