Don't question this man.

-A couple of things-1. I am no longer going by the secret_sauce tag, im now using my twitter name-ryan_jones29     2. I wrote this piece the day after Carp’s last start but had trouble putting it into the system

There’s been a lot made of Chris Carpenter’s 2010 season thus far. His five home runs allowed in his first two starts (would have been 6 if not for Colby Rasmus) made Cardinal fans question Carpenter’s health. Recently, a comment from Houston Astro Lance Berkman, who said Carpenter’s velocity is down several mph, has only brought more attention to this “issue.” Ken Rosenthal even suggested in an ITD Morning After interview on May 18 that Carpenter might be in the beginning of a slight decline. So should Cardinal fans be concerned about their oft-injured ace?

In a word, no.

First off all, Carpenter’s velocity is down a little, but the amount it is down is exaggerated. Yes Carpenter averaged 93 mph on all fastballs in 2009, which means 2010’s 91.4 mph average velocity is down, but when you look at the past several years, it doesn’t exactly scream Red Flag! To show what I mean, here is Carpenter’s average velocity for the following years-I took out his injury riddled 07’ and 08’ numbers

04’-90.6 mph

05’-91.3 mph

06’-91.4 mph

09’-93.0 mph

10’-91.4 mph

So Carpenter’s 2010 velocity is down, but it is still exactly in line with his career averages. It is hard telling why Carpenter threw so hard in 09’, maybe it was all the rehab he did the previous two years, maybe he had extra adrenaline being in a pennant race after two straight years off, we’ll never know. The important thing is that Carpenter’s velocity isn’t down at a career low, and who knows, maybe as the weather gets warmer and the year progresses his velocity may increase a bit. So going forward, Cards fans can breath easy about Carp’s “diminished velocity.”

Going forward with Carpenter, it is fair to expect more ace-like performances from the right-hander. He’s off to a good start in 2010, with a 5-1 record, 2.80 ERA, 3.70 FIP and an expected FIP of 3.33, compared to last years 3.38 mark. Remember FIP takes a teams defense out of the equation and comes up with an ERA like number based on the amount of things that a pitcher  controls-Walks, Strikeouts, Homeruns.  The reason Carpenter’s FIP is higher now is because of all the homers he gave up early this season, but his expected FIP is a better measure of what to expect going forward.  The difference between this year and last is his home run rate. Last year Carpenter gave up homeruns on only 4.6% of his fly balls, which is very low. This year that number is at 14%. For his career, it is at 10.9%. Over time I would expect to see that number closer to his career average, but for his overall numbers to stay around the same still. His batting average on balls in play is still a little low, so going forward Carpenter might allow a few more runs on hits and a few less on homers. Overall Carpenter is still an ace pitcher, and appears to be in great shape going forward. Rest easy, Card fans.

-All statistics from fangraphs.com and despite Bernie’s column in the post dispatch, I didn’t get the idea to write this from that. Honestly I began this piece at 8 am, and didn’t see Bernie’s until I checked the site at 1.

It's shaping up to be a wonderful summer in the Lou'.

It  has been awhile eh?  I apologize, as I have been pressed for time recently again.  In the future, for a better way to see when new content is added to the site, I suggest you follow me personally on twitter <twitter.com/ryan_jones29> or Tom (he owns this site, I just write on it).  His account is <twitter.com/CardinalsGM>.  Whenever a new post is added to the site a link will be tweeted, so you will know exactly when a post is written.  Both of us also like to tweet about the Cards during the games, so you can either just read what we have to say or tell us that we are crazy!

Anyways, back to the actual Cardinals.  Overall I would say it has been a good start to the year.  The Cards’ 20-14 start gives them a .588 winning percentage, which would put them in the low to mid 90’s in wins by the end of the year, which is where many people expected them to be going into the year.  Using data from baseball prospectus and fangraphs gives us a good idea of where the Cardinals stand in relation to their division counterparts

OFFENSE

The club has yet to gel together offensively.  Their 4.41 runs per game average is a tad underwhelming, as that figure is good for 4th in the central divison and 11th in the N.L.   Their team .338 on base % is actually tied for 6th in the league, but their .405 slugging % puts them at 10th in the N.L.  There is no way a team with Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick, and even Freese should be that low in terms of slugging %, but with guys like Schumaker and Ryan stuggling to do anything offensively and with Pujols and Holliday yet to really catch fire that’s where things stand.  The Cardinals are also one of the least disciplined teams in the major leagues in terms of % of swings at pitches thrown outside of the strike zone.  Cardinal batters are swinging at 27.7% of such pitches, which ranks them 10th in the N.L.  In order to improve offensively, hitters need to quit swinging at so many bad pitches.  It sounds like an obvious statement and anyone who watches the games can see that, but it is worthwhile to point out when the stats back it up. 

PITCHING

This is an area where the Cardinals have dominated throughout 2010.  Their 3.41 runs allowed per game is good for 3rd in the N.L. and 1st in the divison.  No one else in the divison is within a run of the Cards, which is fantastic.  The Cards have the 2nd best k/bb ratio in the N.L., and carry a sub 3.5 FIP as a team, which again is execellent.  Another interesting note is that Cardinal curve balls are a full 10 runs better (17.6 vrs. 7.5) than any other team in the major leagues!   Make no mistake about it-with guys like Wainwright and Carpenter, the Cardinals OWN the curveball. 

DEFENSE

Despite the last two nights, the Cardinals have also played some solid defense to help aid the pitching staff this season.  They are converting 71% of balls put into play into outs, which leads the divison and is good enough for 3rd in the N.L.  Their 10.7 UZR, which means how many runs the defense has saved compared to how many runs an average defense would have saved, as a team is also good enough for 3rd in the N.L. and first in the divison.  It’s clear that the Cardinals help an already stout pitching staff shave off runs by playing execellent defense. 

OVERALL

Despite the recent hot stretch by the Reds, the Cardinals still appear to be in a good place in the divison.  Their 4.41 runs scored per game and 3.41 runs allowed per game is good enough for 1st in the divison and 4th in the league.  In fact, no other team in the divison has a positive run differential like the Cardinals.  In short, if a team allows more runs than it scores, in the long run they aren’t likely to keep up with a team who does the opposite.  This is the uphill scenario that the rest of the divison faces when trying to take down the Cardinals in 2010.  Barring injury, continue to look for good things and enjoy the games Cards fans!

The UCB doesn't actually meet in person at a roundtable, but if we did I imagine it would look something like this.

For my question on the United Cardinal Bloggers (UCB) roundtable discussion, I asked the panel: 

“Bud Selig’s special 14 man MLB committee has discussed a variety of topics that could improve the game.  The topic that grabbed the most attention the past couple of days, is the controversial “floating realignment plan.”  In this realignment, teams would not be fixed to a division, but free to change divisions from year-to-year based on geography, payroll and their plans to contend or not.  To read Tom Verducci’s article on the matter, click the link http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/03/09/floating-realignment/index.html

Would you be in favor of such an alignment?  Why or Why not? ”

The responses?  Not one person in the ten responses I received was in favor of the realignment.  That was what I expected when I sent out the question, though it should be noted that the results of this poll might have been different if this was the United Blue Jay or United Orioles Bloggers group.  There were some really good  responses to the question, with some of the more  interesting ones listed below.

-Daniel Shoptaw of cardinal70.com-”Asking “Who’s going to win the NL Central?” and getting back “Well, who’s playing in it this year?” is not exactly the best way to bring in the casual fans.”

-Nick at Pitchers Hit Eighth-”I should make clear that I really appreciate the direction of the committee.  They should be thinking out of the box, just like this suggestion.  This is no doubt something on the minds of upper management around the league as the gap between haves and have-nots widens.  The answer, however, does not lie in allowing those teams to continue to mismanage their assets.  Hire smarter, draft better, spend more wisely.  It’s been done, teams have won consistently with less.”

-Michael Riehn at whiteyball.com-”My solution is to change the revenue sharing system to where teams in the divisions with the higher payrolls get a bigger cut of the revenue pie.  It makes sense even in a free market system when you consider that these teams play more games against the higher revenue teams (thus, it can be argued that they should get a bigger share of the revenue from these teams).”

Matthew Phillip at fungoes- ” The ridiculous idea of floating realignment is a reminder of the dangers of groupthink, and of relying on a cadre so-called experts to make decisions that are best handled by those who are more in touch with the ramifications of those decisions. Like many of Bug Selig’s changes to the game, floating realignment is a solution with unwelcome unintended consequences and that unnecessarily complicates where a simpler solution is available.”

-Justin Adams of intangibal.com- “The only thing about this that makes sense to me is the fact that teams need one another in order to compete, and therefore to entertain us. Baseball is beautiful and pulls at our heartstrings from a number of angles, but it’s also a lucrative business. I can understand a philanthropic desire save the Royals and Pirates from themselves, but then I look at the Marlins who have MLB’s lowest revenues…purchased in 2002 by Jeff Loria for $158 mil and now worth closer to $300 mil. Even as Mr. Loria pockets a $30 mil revenue-sharing check each year as opposed to reinvesting in his roster. His business model is his own, but the Marlins are just one example of why alignment is not necessary. Even more impressive when you consider their success within a division that the Braves had dominated as no other team in sports had ever before.”

                 Overall I thought the answers were very interesting and thorough.  I am also against the idea of “radical realignment,”  but I also appreciate that Major League Baseball is putting forth an effort to continually improve its product.  As far as addressing competitive balance goes, if baseball really wants to make things fair to teams like the Blue Jays and Orioles, and I am not sure they should, but if they were to make some changes I think upping the luxury tax with some combination of forcing the teams to invest a higher percentage of their revenues into player payroll or the draft would be a better idea than something like a salary cap.  There are countless solutions to put teams on a more equal playing field if MLB wanted to, such as taking away draft picks/position from a team that crosses a certain salary threshold.  As a Cardinal fan, I hope things stay as they are in baseball, as the Cardinals have been quite successful with the current system in place.

-Sorry about the lack of activity recently.  A busy stretch for me personally has coincided with a real lack of  activity with the Cards.

-As you all know, pitchers and catchers reported this week, and the Cardinal camp is filled with some intriguing questions besides how the new hitting coach is doing:

-Will Brendan Ryan, who finally had his bum wrist operated on,be ready by opening day?

-Who will take hold of the 5th starter spot?

-Will John Mozeliak use his remaining “bullet” this spring, and if so, on whom? 

Time will tell on the Brendan Ryan situation, as he is expected to report to Jupiter for rehab this next week.  His medical prognosis seems good for now, but untill he starts swinging a bat it will be hard to guage the situation.  If Ryan were to be down for an extended period of time, Tyler Greene figures to make the 25 man roster.  Most projection systems call for an OPS of around .700 for Greene, who has shown promising tools but is also plagued by high strikeout totals offensively.  On defense, Greene is projected to be average, which doesn’t seem right after seeing him make several outstanding plays a year ago.  It’s hard to say without seeing him consistently, but perhaps Greene also struggles with consistency on his defense.  In any event, if Ryan is down for a significant amount of time Greene should be the top option to fill in, as Julio Lugo’s balky knees no longer make him a passable option at short for any extended period of time.

-A lot is being made about whether Jaime Garcia, Kyle McClellan, or Rich Hill will take hold of the opening in the starting rotation, and all have positives and negatives to enter into the equation.  Garcia probably has the brightest future of the three, but is entering his first full year back from TJ surgery and could probably benefit from spending at least the first half of the year down in Memphis.  Kyle McClellan is probably the favorite as things stand today, but he too has had his share of injuries in the past and his entering into the rotation creates a vacancy in the bullpen.  Hill is the most intriguing out of the three, as he is just two years removed from an impressive 183 strikeout campaign as a member of the Cubs.  If Hill shows that he has regained his command after shoulder surgery a year ago, which is admittedly a big if, he could surprise. 

-As of right now John Mozeliak is taking a “wait and see” approach before making any additional additions to the roster.  He’s very “bullish” on David Freese at third base, and notes that players who want to sign quickly such as Felipe Lopez may not fit with his desire to evaluate what they Cardinals have in camp before making any moves.  There could potentially be a fit for another ex-Cardinal in Russ Springer or Kiko Calero, who is coming off a solid season for the Marlins, if Kyle McClellan wins the 5th starter job and Josh Kinney fails to replace him in the bullpen. 

-That’s what is going on in Cardinal Nation at the moment, and hopefully by next week we will have a sense of where Brendan Ryan and his injured wrist stands.  I don’t expect any moves to be made until the games begin in Spring Training, but Mozeliak has also stated that he will be “opportunistic,” so if the right player came along at the right price he could jump.  Finally, I don’t expect any headway in the 5th starter competition to made until the games begin either, so it appears it will stay a three horce race for now.

PECOTA sees another division championship for the Cards next season

It’s late January, which can only mean one thing: it’s time for Baseball Prospectus to release its PECOTA projections for the 2010 season!  Not enthused? Well that’s ok, because there are some common misconceptions about what a projection system is.  I also encourage any fan to subscribe to BP, as it really is a great site for people who enjoy the statistical side of the game.  (As a side note, I can’t go into specific player statistics because it’s subscriber only content and I don’t want to get in trouble for being a stat pirate, if there is such a thing)

What it is:

-PECOTA takes into account numerous player information, matches them with comparable players, and then predicts what the player will do in the subsequent season(s) based on that information.  How accurate are the projections?  Statistics have shown that there is a .7-.8 correlation between predicted and actual stats, which is strong, but not perfect.  Basically there is too strong of correlation to completely dismiss PECOTA but too weak to trust it as the absolute truth.

-PECOTA should be used to get a general idea of what a fan can reasonably expect to see from a player next season. 

-When looking at any one specific player, the projection may seem to understate or overstate what the player will likely do.  This is because the PECOTA projection system divides its projection into ten categories of percentiles, and uses the 50th percentile score, which is obviously the midpoint.  You’ll see what I mean by this a little later.

-As far as the Cardinals are concerned, PECOTA expects them to score 745 runs and give up 702 runs.  Last year the Cardinals scored 730 runs and gave up 640, so while the system expects the offense to improve slightly, it expects some regression in the pitching/defense department.  It may seem hard to believe that with a full season of Holliday the Cardinal offense is only projected to score 15 more runs, but remember the system only uses the 50% score when running simulations.  Elite players such as Pujols and Holliday routinely end up performing in their 70-80 and even in their 90th percentile projections for the season, which would obviously raise the amount of runs the Cardinals would score.  For the pitching, PECOTA is very conservative in their projections for co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.  Since Carpenter basically missed 2 years out of the last 3 and Wainwright had his first break-out year in 2009, the projections for the two are probably low.  Still, it’s nice to know as a Cardinal fan that conservative estimates of the pitching/defense have the team only giving up around 700 runs. 

-Using the projected runs scored and runs allowed, PECOTA expects the Cardinals to win the Central division with an 86-76 record.  Like I have said before, these projections are probably a tad conservative, but still it’s nice to know that if things don’t go as well as most fans expect the Cardinals are still predicted to be 10 games over the .500 mark and win their division by a comfortable 5 games over the Reds and 9 games over the Cubs. 

-Once again it’s important to not put too much stock into these projections, but it is nice to know that the Cardinals are considered the favorite going into the year.  They still have to play the games on the field, but Tony LaRussa has a roster that has the most talent in the division to work with.

Some snippets from around Cardinal nation and the rest of the league:

-Rich Hill was signed as a non-roster invitee-It’s hard not to like moves like this, as there cost is basically free in terms of baseball dollars and players in this position traditionally have something to prove. Hill was once a young, talented, left-handed starter who struck out around 8.5 batters per nine while walking under 3, but has fallen off of a cliff the past couple of seasons. While suffering through physical and mechanical issues in 2008 and 2009 Hill never regained his 2007 form, but Hill and the Cardinals swear he is healthy and ready to go at the start of spring. For what it’s worth (probably little), the Chone projection system has Hill pegged at a 4.78 ERA, a 4.82 FIP, 96 innings pitched, and to be worth 0.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2010. Hill will have to earn a spot on the big league club this spring, but if Hill can resemble anything close to his 3.1 WAR form of a couple years ago John Mozeliak will have a real bargain on his hands.

-The signing of Rich Hill looks to end the pursuit of John Smoltz, despite his reported preference to return-I have to admit I was hoping for a Cardinals-Smoltz reunion in 2010, but with Tony LaRussa wanting the remaining “bullet” to be used on a position player that can play third, Smoltz was priced out of the Cardinal budget. Smoltz would have been a nice fit, as he would give the club some flexibility in the late innings or in the back end of the rotation. The extra depth that Smoltz provides would have been nice, but typically there is pitching, F.A.T., or free available talent, that is out there during the season. Two examples of this in 2009 would be Smoltz, who the Cardinals signed after he was released by the Red Sox and our very own Brad Penny, who was also released by Boston and picked up by the Giants.

-Joe Strauss suggested today that Felipe Lopez might be out of the price range as well, with Joe Crede being a potential player of interest. Crede likely wouldn’t command much guaranteed money, as back problems have plagued him the past several seasons. Still, Crede has a tremendous glove at third base and has a little pop in his bat. Crede was worth 1.9 WAR in just 90 games with the Twins in 2009, and would represent some competition/insurance for David Freese. This is a signing that would make sense for the Cardinals, as the Cardinals wouldn’t likely be on the hook for a lot of guaranteed cash, would have some insurance for Freese, and could still give Freese ample playing time when giving Crede a rest when his back inevitably flares up. Overall Chone expects Freese to have a higher OPS -.777 to .733, but Crede to have the superior glove-5 runs above average to 0.
-The Cubs signed Xavier Nady, who I liked as a potential Matt Holliday replacement back in November. Nady looks to fill the hole created when Reed Johnson became a free agent, and figures to be a nice pickup for Chicago. Look for Nady to platoon with Kosuke Fukudome most of the time, but he also represents insurance in case Alfonso Soriano’s injuries continue to hamper his effectiveness.

-Ben Sheets signed with the A’s-Cardinal fans know Sheets well from his tenure in Milwaukee, and that when he is healthy is a very good pitcher. Sheets was worth 4.4 WAR in his last healthy season of 2008, and cashed in on that potential by inking a one year deal that will pay him 10 million plus in 2010. That may seem like a lot of money from a team like the A’s, but Billy Beane had the cash to spend after missing out on Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre, and Aroldis Chapman this winter. Even if Sheets completely fails, it’s only a one year deal, so it’s not as if this is a potentially crippling contract for the A’s to take on. If Sheets is healthy however, Oakland made a very nice signing. If they are in contention, Beane can hold on to Sheets for a playoff run, but if the A’s fall out of contention, Beane can trade Sheets for prospects. This is what Beane did with Matt Holliday last year, and while Sheets likely won’t command the return that Holliday did, Beane still has a nice potential asset on his hands. Personally I think Beane will trade Sheets if he is having a good year and Oakland isn‘t on the cusp of winning the division. Assuming the economic climate in free agency is similar next year, and Sheets is a type A free agent, the likelihood of Sheets getting a multi-year deal with his medical history is slim. If Sheets is unlikely to get a multi-year deal somewhere, he would be more likely to accept arbitration, where he would receive an increase from his 2010 salary, a risk that the A’s would likely be better off not taking. This provides more incentive for General Manager Billy Beane to move Sheets at the first sign of the A’s falling out of the race.

Brad Penny should be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher in 2010.

                Matt Holliday has obviously been getting most of the attention from Cardinal fans this off-season, and deservedly so, but signing Brad Penny was also a significant move for John Mozeliak this off-season. Penny is expected to fill the hole in the middle of the rotation that was created when Joel Pineiro became a free agent. On the surface, it would seem like a downgrade for the Cardinals to replace a pitcher that threw 214 innings of 3.49 ERA ball for a pitcher who had a 4.88 ERA in 173.1 innings, but what Pineiro and Penny did in 2009 may not be what to expect from these hurlers in 2010.

                Joel Pineiro had his “career year” in 2009 at age 31, when he went 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA in 214 innings. Pineiro started throwing a sinker, and it helped him increase his ground out to fly out ratio, decrease the number of line drives that batters hit off him, hardly ever give up home runs (.46 home runs per nine innings), and lower his walk rate to a career best 1.14 per nine innings. These are all good things for Pineiro, but it should be noted that very few pitchers in baseball can maintain consistent success when they rely on pinpoint command like Pineiro does, and because of that it’s reasonable to expect some regression in his numbers in 2010. The Chone projection system, one of the most accurate systems out there, expects Pineiro to post a 4.37 ERA in 169 innings over 28 starts, which would be 24 runs better than what a replacement level pitcher would be in the same amount of innings and starts (for an example of what a replacement level pitcher is, think Brad Thompson). So while Pineiro is still expected to be a quality pitcher in 2010, it appears unlikely that Joel will duplicate his stellar 2009.

                Brad Penny is coming off of a very rough 2009 in which he went 11-9 with a 4.88 ERA in 173.1 innings. Most of Penny’s peripheral statistics fit in line with his career averages, but Penny suffered from gopher-itis. Penny’s career home runs allowed per nine innings is .88, but in 2009 that number rose to 1.14. Chone expects Penny’s home run rate to return to his career levels in 2010, calling for him to have a 4.13 ERA in 159 innings over 27 starts. Those numbers would make Penny 22 runs above replacement, which is two runs below what Pineiro is expected to post but in ten less innings, so basically Chone thinks Pineiro and Penny will provide equal value in 2010.

                Just because Chone projects Penny and Pineiro to be equal in 2010 doesn’t mean that they will be, however, as Penny and Pineiro have different pitching styles. Pineiro’s success and failure relies almost entirely on the defense behind him, while Penny garners more strikeouts. Simply put, Penny’s projection is less likely to vary because he doesn’t rely on his defense as much, while Pineiro’s numbers could be much worse if he has bad luck on balls put in play. Also, Penny signed for 1/$7.5 while Pineiro might still get a multi-year deal, so contractually the scale slightly favors Penny again. Overall it appears John Mozeliak made the right call in choosing Penny over Pineiro, both statistically and financially, and Cardinal fans shouldn’t worry about seeing Joel sign with another team.

-Since McGwire admitted his steroid use several days ago, I am going to take a page out of his book and “not talk about the past.” I personally am very tired of hearing about performance enhancing drugs, and the sooner the media finds another topic to focus on the better.

-There isn’t a lot of other Cardinal related news at the moment besides Big Mac’s admission, but there are a few tidbits about players of interest to the Redbirds.

-Ryan Church, possible candidate for the 4^th outfielder role, is close to a contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Church would have been a nice fit for the Cardinals, but seeing him sign with the Pirates is not a big deal. Church is just the type of player that John Mozeliak could have considered for the bench, not the only one. There are still many other players out there that can provide similar production that Church could have provided.

-The signing of Church likely means the Pirates will be staying away from Rick Ankiel. Scott Boras, Ankiel’s agent, has scared off a lot of teams because he is looking for a multi-year deal, which teams are obviously scared of giving him. Ankiel struggled horribly in 2009, and until Boras comes down on his demands, Ankiel will continue to remain a free agent while others sign. Ankiel’s best bet at his point would be to accept an incentive laden one year year deal in a place that would offer sufficient playing time, which shouldn’t be St. Louis.

-The Cubs are kicking the tires on Ben Sheets. Sheets was one of many pitchers that the Cardinals would likely have had interest in if they didn’t sign Matt Holliday, but is likely too expensive for the Cards at this point.

-The Mets and Dodgers like Joel Pineiro. Back in October, I said that the Cardinals should stay away from the multi-year deal that Pineiro would likely command. Pineiro’s market was likely set by Jason Marquis’s 2 year 15 million dollar deal, which would be a fair price to pay for Pineiro if the Cardinals had a bigger budget.

-In a XM radio interview with Bill Dewitt III over the weekend, Dewitt stated that there is a “slight urgency” to begin discussing a contract extension with Albert Pujols. Dewitt said that the Cardinals don’t want to go into the final year of Pujols’s contract, which runs out after the 2011 season, without an extension. He also said that ideally a deal would be done within the next 3-6 months. I agree with Dewitt in that the Cardinals shouldn’t go into the final season of Pujols’s contract before getting an extension done. I firmly believe that both the Cardinals and Pujols will get something worked out in the end. Both sides have stated that they would like to continue their relationship, and I believe the Cardinals have the finances to get this done.

-That seems to wrap things up in Cardinal nation for now, and it seems that the best hope for Cardinal fans this week is that the media finds a new whipping boy to talk about.