John Smoltz would be a fine addition to an already robust Cardinal rotation.

                With Matt Holliday signed, the Cardinals filled their biggest and most pressing need, which was to acquire an elite bat to add to the lineup. Filling the left field vacancy isn’t the only need however, as there are other, albeit smaller, holes that John Mozeliak might want to fill before the season starts. Some of the potential needs the Redbirds face going into 2010 include adding another starter, adding a late inning reliever, a third-basemen, and a backup outfielder. The Cardinals are obviously on a limited budget now that they signed Holliday, and it’s being reported Mozeliak may only have $6-7 million left to work with. With a lot of free agents still unsigned, Mozeliak is in a position where he can let the market play out to see what bargains may be available in the next couple of months. It should also be noted that just because Mo’ has $6-7 million left to spend, don’t expect him to use all of his remaining funds before opening day. The Cardinals have traditionally been a team that likes to save some “dry powder” for mid-season acquisitions, which would make sense again in 2010. By saving some money to use at the trade-deadline, Mozeliak can wait to see which area of his club needs to be upgraded the most rather than maxing out his budget in the off-season and inhibiting his in-season flexibility. If the Cardinals are going make a move before the season, however, where should John Mozeliak choose to upgrade?

Late inning relief-The Cardinals currently have Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, and Josh Kinney all vying for bullpen spots heading into 2010. The Cardinals traded away a lot of their relief depth in the Khalil Greene and Mark Derosa deals last summer, but developing relievers hasn’t been a problem for Jeff Luhnow and the player development department and therefore probably isn’t the most pressing need going into next year.

Backup outfielder-With rehabbing Joe Mather the only potential backup outfielder with major league experience, the Cardinals could defintely use a veteran backup outfielder. Ryan Church seems to be a good fit, as he would represent a left-handed option off of the bench and can play all 3 outfield spots at a potentially low cost. A guy like Allen Craig definitely deserves a shot to be on the team, but Mozeliak could do worse than to add a guy like Church and his .787 career ops to help bolster the bench. 

Third base-With David Freese the only legitimate option, the Cardinals’ depth is thin at the hot corner. Freese however, is also the best bet that the club has to fill one of its remaining voids from within. Freese is coming off of an injury riddled season and a recent DUI arrest, but is still a better option than signing a declining Miguel Tejada. The Cardinals should go into 2010 with Freese at the hot corner, and use some of the “dry powder” on a third base upgrade in the season if Freese falters.

Starting Rotation-On paper this is the one area of the club that appears to be set. With Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny, Kyle Lohse, and rookie Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals potentially have a very robust rotation, but the starting pitching depth behind these five is not strong. When you consider that every member of the projected rotation has missed significant time in the last two years due to injury, and that guys like PJ Walters and rule-5 draftee Ben Jukich the “sixth starters,” it would make sense for Mozeliak to add another starting pitcher to the fold before the season. This would enable the Cardinals to start Jaime Garcia in AAA, where he could continue to build up strength after his Tommy John surgery. Ideally a guy like John Smoltz would be signed, but may be out of the Cardinals price range.

                In conclusion, the Cardinals improved their 2010 club tremendously and are probably the division favorites after re-signing Matt Holliday. There are still some potential holes, however, and a limited budget to work with. Although some are calling for a late-inning reliever to help Ryan Franklin close out games or a third-basemen, I think it would make the most sense to add a backup outfielder like Ryan Church and another starting pitcher like John Smoltz. It’s unclear how much wiggle room John Mozeliak would like to keep for the season, but Cardinal fans should be hoping that he uses some of it on either another starting pitcher or a reserve outfielder.

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                It appears that barring any 11th hour mystery teams entering the fold, the Cardinals and John Mozeliak might finally get the player they have targeted all off-season as early as next week. In an article written by Derrick Goold, some sources within the Cardinal organization say that a deal for Holliday is “gaining momentum” and that progress is “strong.” The length of the deal has varied, with most sources stating that it is between 5-8 years. It’s likely that the contract would be 5-6 guaranteed years, with several option years on the end. The likely terms of the option years would probably either be team options or vesting ones based on Holliday’s performance. The exact dollar amount is also an unknown at this point, but it is reported that Boras and Holliday want an $18 million average annual value. Since Jason Bay’s contract with the Mets is a $16.5 million AAV, it’s likely that Holliday will fall somewhere between $16.5 and $18 million range. It should also be known that any potential deal for Holliday will also include a no-trade clause, especially since the Cardinals gave one to Kyle Lohse last off-season and that Scott Boras has stated it is a priority for Holliday.
                Overall I like this potential deal for the Cardinals. Signing Holliday would improve the club more than any other move that John Mozeliak could make (barring an unforeseen trade) this winter. With Allen Craig likely being worth around 1.5 Wins Above Replacement, if Holliday could replicate last year’s 5.7 WAR season it would be a 4.2 Win upgrade for the Cardinals. When you consider Holliday’s salary will likely be around $17-$18 million (or less if it is a back-loaded contract), the Cardinals would be paying around $4.17 million dollars per Win, which is a fair price. In fact, Holliday could very well be a nice value for the Cardinals next season at that price, because of where the Cardinals sit on the Win Curve.  *Pease note that the vertical column on the graph represents the $ value attached to each win for a team*

Team Wins
 
                As you can see, the value of wins is not equal across the scale. A 5 WAR player to an awful team like the Pirates, who would be on the far left end of the scale is not worth the same amount of money as the same 5 WAR player is to a team in the middle of the bell curve, which represents a team like the Cardinals. Conversely, a 5 WAR player to an excellent team like the Yankees (who would be on the far right) isn’t worth very much either, as the Yankees will likely win around 100 games and the extra wins that the player would represent doesn’t change the odds of making the playoffs much (for a great read on this subject check out this article.)The excellent writers (Erik Manning and Steve Sommer) at Play a Hard Nine have projected the Cardinals at around a 87 win team without Matt Holliday, which is 3 wins above the second place Cubs in their projections. Adding Matt Holliday would likely put the Cardinals in the 90 win range, which almost guarantees a playoff berth. The extra revenue that comes with a playoff berth means there is a higher incentive to add a player that represents “the final piece of the puzzle” to a team that is close to the 90 win level like the Cardinals. Even though the Cardinals are projected to win the central division by 3 games, it should also be noted that most projection systems can vary by as many as 5 to 10 wins in either direction, so to not sign Holliday because the Cardinals are projected to win is a risky strategy.
                Overall Matt Holliday is a unique opportunity for the Cardinals. He represents the biggest potential upgrade that the Cardinals could do via free agency at a point where any extra wins are at a premium for the organization. The amount of years being discussed are a bit concerning, but the Cardinals are at a “win now” stage with Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright, and Molina all in the primes of their careers. If Holliday is signed sometime early next week, Cardinal fans should be happy that John Mozeliak made the best possible upgrade he could make this off-season.

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Felipe Lopez is part of a possible plan B for the Cardinals.

                It’s been an interesting week in Cardinal Nation, as John Mozeliak announced on the Bernie Show that the club did make a formal offer to Scott Boras for Matt Holliday before the Winter Meetings closed on Thursday. Mozeliak stated yesterday that the Cardinals should know something within the next 48 hours on Matt, and Joe Strauss states the club might not know something until early next week. Making the offer came after months of speculation about what Holliday’s market would be and posturing by Scott Boras. Mozeliak in his radio interview yesterday stated that he doesn’t feel like another club is currently bidding on Holliday, but things could always change very quickly, especially if Jason Bay signs. Not many details are known about the offer to Holliday, but Strauss did say a club source told him that the average annual value of the deal is under $18 million per season. Strauss says it’s significant that the deal isn’t for $18 million annually, because Holliday already rejected a deal that would have paid him that from the Rockies before last off-season. What isn’t said in the Strauss article was that the offer from the Rockies was only for four years and that he was two years away from free agency at the time, and Scott Boras almost always has his clients test the waters of free agency. It’s been rumored that the Cardinals would like to lock Holliday up with a 6 year deal worth $96 million, which comes out to $16 million per season. There is a big difference in offering a Scott Boras client 4 years and $72 million two years away from free agency and offering a 6 year deal when Holliday is a free agent in a market that isn’t as robust as Mr. Boras would have hoped. If the Cardinals did offer Holliday 6 years and $96 million, I don’t expect Holliday to take it. Any notions of a “home-town discount” have been squashed by Boras, who appears to be waiting on Jason Bay to sign with someone so he can hopefully drum up more interest in Holliday. I am happy the Cardinals made an offer, because it does show Boras and Holliday they are serious in their pursuit. If the Cardinals ultimately end up signing Matt they will likely have to up their offer some, but they at least are talking dollars with Boras instead of bantering through the media like much of early last week.

                Since Mozeliak has stated that he will know where the Cardinals stand by sometime next week, Cardinal fans should also be aware of what a potential plan B could look like for the Redbirds. Once again Joe Strauss provides some insight, stating that the Cardinals would have interest in bringing back Mark Derosa and signing free agent Felipe Lopez, who batted .385 for the Cardinals down the stretch in 2008. Lopez and Derosa likely wouldn’t improve the team as much as Holliday would, but they would be solid additions. In this scenario, Derosa would likely be the everyday left fielder, and Lopez would become the club’s third basemen. I have already stated that a healthy Mark Derosa could be worth 2.5-3 Wins Above Replacement out in left, and Lopez is coming off of a spectacular 4.6 WAR season as the primary second basemen for Arizona and Milwaukee. Lopez’s improvement over previous seasons came from having a 7.6 UZR in the field and having one of his finest offensive campaigns of his career. Lopez had a .310 average to go along with a .383 on-base-percentage and a .427 slugging percentage. Although Lopez hit more line drives and ground balls and decreased the amount of fly balls he has typically hit, he had a Batting Average of Balls in Play that was nearly 40 points above his career average, so some regression on offensive should be expected in 2010. Defensively Lopez has been slightly above average in 90 games at third base in his career, so if the Cardinals did sign the 29 year old they could probably expect to see something close to a 3 WAR season from him. Signing Lopez might only be a 1 WAR improvement over someone like David Freese who plays for the minimum, but as long as the club could sign Lopez to a 1-2 year deal I think it would be a good idea. With the Cardinals needing offense badly, it wouldn’t hurt to have a versatile switch-hitter like Lopez around for the right price.

                This next week figures to be a very pivotal one of the Cardinals, as they will know if they are in the Holliday hunt or not. Everything else this off-season is dictated upon whether #15 comes back, but if not the club is prepared to explore other options. I hope Holliday does re-sign, but if not the Cardinals have the backup plans in place to help them stay competitive in 2010.

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Incidents like these fill Vincente Padilla's past.

                 With the Winter Meetings starting next week, the next couple of days figure to be a very busy time for the Cardinals. There will be rumors flying, and since it can be hard to decipher fact from fiction coverage surrounding the Winter Meetings has little backbone to it. It’s truly a crazy time of year for baseball fans to try to keep things straight. In Cardinal Nation, Joe Strauss’s article and tweets were once again the story that has Cardinal Nation buzzing, so let’s cut to the chase.

                -Strauss stated that John Mozeliak and other members of the front office have expressed their concern on how much to offer Holliday since Pujols will need an extension sometime soon. I am sure John Mozeliak did say that, but I also think others are blowing this out of control by questioning why the Cardinals didn’t realize that in the first place. I don’t think the front office was naive enough to think that Holliday would come cheap, and it’s not like the fact that Pujols’s contract will expire after 2011 is breaking news either. The Cardinals knew that it would be expensive to keep Pujols and Holliday, and why it’s a big story that they might not be able to afford both isn’t exactly shocking news. All the Cardinals ever said was they would make an aggressive attempt to sign Holliday, and they very well might. They never stated that they were going to bring Holliday back at any cost or would be the highest bidder.

                -Strauss said that the Cardinals might be interested in bringing Derosa back if Holliday walks to split time at third and in left with David Freese and Allen Craig, which I don’t think would be a bad idea. Signing Derosa and having a three man rotation for two positions would be a better option than signing two players like Miguel Tejada and Xavier Nady. Tejada and Nady would be pricey, and I think the best way to spread around the dollars this off-season is to bring back Derosa then put the rest of the dollars into pitching. The offense wouldn’t be the strength of the team, but it would be a better offense than most of last year where Joe Thurston, Rick Ankiel, Khalil Greene, Chris Duncan, and an injured Mark Derosa took a lot of plate appearances.

                -Speaking of pitching, according to Matthew Leach the Cardinals could have some interest in Vincente Padilla. Padilla has a live arm and a sinking fastball, which could be a good match for Dave Duncan, but he also comes with some serious baggage and a poor reputation in the clubhouse. Personally I’d much rather see someone like Jon Garland brought in than Vincente Padilla. Consider their Bill James Projections for next season:

Basically, Garland is better in every category except strikeouts, which he offsets by posting a lower walk rate. If the Cardinals are going to spend money on an innings eating #4 type starter next season, I’d rather have Garland, who is a better pitcher than Padilla and doesn’t come with the negative reputation.

                -Derrick Goold believes that the Cardinals could enter the bidding for one of the high risk pitchers that I’ve discussed, which is an idea that I am obviously on board with. It’s hard to say what pitchers are healthy from a fan’s point of view, but if the Cardinals were able to get 140-150 innings from a guy like Sheets, Harden, or Bedard, it would probably end up being a very nice value to the club.

                -By my next post Wednesday, I’m sure we will have a clearer picture of what John Mozeliak is going to do this off-season. Eventually the club will have to decide on what side of their parallel tracks off-season plan they are going to follow, and it will be very interesting to see how it all shakes out.

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Scott Boras is hoping that negotiations between Boston and Jason Bay fall apart.

                With baseball’s winter meetings in Indianapolis just 9 days away, the hot stove figures to pick up steam quickly. Although there aren’t a lot of signings or trades happening yet, agents and general managers are very busy laying the groundwork for possible deals in the future. John Mozeliak figures to have a busy time in Indianapolis, as he will have to continue to go forth with his parallel tracks off-season plan (click here for an explanation). Matt Holliday is obviously plan A and the goal of the off-season, but the key to landing him might be what happens with Jason Bay and the Red Sox.

                After missing out on Mark Texeira last off-season, the Red Sox definitely need to add a big bat this winter. Jason Bay has performed very well for Boston, but recently rejected a 4 year $60 million dollar offer. Bay can hit, but his defense leaves something to be desired, and one of General Manager Theo Epstein’s goals this off-season is to improve the Red Sox defense. Theo said this in an NESN.com article, stating: “If you look back at this year’s club, I think we weren’t the defensive club that we wanted to be. So there’s room for improvement with our overall team defense, our defensive efficiency.” Holliday would be an upgrade over Bay defensively, and with left-field and shortstop the only two positions that the Sox need to fill through trades or free-agency this winter, Matt Holliday could be a great fit in Boston.

                Why is Boston such a key in the Holliday negotiations? Matt Holliday is a Scott Boras client, which traditionally means that the client will sign with the highest bidder. In this Wednesday’s post I explained why the Cardinals had to look for value in their free agents because of their $100 million dollar payroll, but in Boston’s case Theo Epstein can afford to pay market value for players because of higher payroll Boston has. Boston’s payroll has been in the $121 to $143 million range the last 3 years, so the Sox top offer could top the Cardinals top offer because of the payroll disparities between the two teams.

                Another variable in the Holliday negotiations if Bostons gets involved are the Yankees. I dubbed them the “sleeping dog” in the process in my post that focused on potential suitors for Holliday, because although the Yankees appear willing to bring back Johnny Damon now, if Boston goes after Holliday the Yankees will likely enter the bidding as well. Even if the Yankees have no intention of signing Holliday, they will likely bid just to drive up the price on Boston, which would probably make the Cardinal’s offer a distant third.

                Of course this could all just be speculation of Bay re-signs with the Red Sox, which is a possibility. Theo also talked about a potential deal with Bay in that same NESN article, stating that “he hopes it does (happen).” Bay will likely be cheaper than Holliday, and with the Red Sox in the Roy Halladay trade talks, Josh Beckett needing a contract extension, and the fact that they still don’t have a shortstop, it’s possible that Bay could be a more attractive option than Holliday because of the price. This year’s winter meetings figure to be an exciting time for Cardinals, and in addition to paying attention to the Holliday negotiations, need to follow the Bay situation as well.

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Value will be a key theme discussed by members of the front office this off-season.

-Before I dive right in to the main point of this post, first let me say that Cardinal fans are truly blessed to watch Albert Pujols play in St. Louis. Albert’s numbers, makeup, and work ethic are all off the charts, and to think that he should still have several more seasons in his prime is amazing. Scott Boras has used the term “franchise player” to describe Matt Holliday this off-season, but if Boras wants to see what a real pillar of a franchise is, he should watch Pujols’s press conference from yesterday. Pujols is the very definition of what a franchise player is, and no disrespect to Matt Holliday, but he just isn’t in Pujols’s league.-

                In recent weeks, General Manager John Mozeliak has given several indications of what he would like to do this off-season. Plan A this off-season is re-signing Matt Holliday, who is the biggest bat on the free agent market. In a radio interview on 101 ESPN Mozeliak said that pitching would be the primary focus of plan B, with a lesser bat likely manning either third-base or the outfield. Some feel like Jason Bay, the best bat besides Holliday, should be a priority for the Cardinals, but Mozeliak’s interest appears to be mild at best. So now that it’s becoming clearer what the Cardinals might do, I think it’s a good idea to try and figure out why they see those two plans as the best course of action.

                Obviously plan A is and should be to try and re-sign Matt Holliday. No other position on the Cardinals needs an upgrade more than left-field, and Holliday was the most valuable left-fielder in the game this past season per WAR (Wins Above Replacement-for a good explanation of what WAR is, check out Derrick Goold’s excellent article here). It’s been speculated by many that Holliday’s contract will fall into the $16-18 million range per season, and since each WAR is generally paid $4.4 million on the free agent market, its easy to see that if Holliday stays at a 5.5 WAR level, $16-18 million per year could make him a valuable asset. I know it seems like I have contradicted myself in citing that each WAR is generally worth $4.4 million on the free agent market and then say Holliday is likely to get a deal in the $16-18 million per season range, but the reasons for that are: 1. some of Holliday’s value comes from his defense, and defense is still undervalued by some clubs 2. the $4.4 million figure is what teams generally pay for a single season, in a large multi-year deal like Holliday will command, the risk of injury/attrition in performance mean that his average annual value will be slightly lower than his worth if he were to just sign a 1 year contract. So even though Holliday will command a large contract, he will likely be a good value to the club and would fill a large hole in left-field.

                If the Cardinals don’t get Holliday, some members of the media don’t see why Jason Bay wouldn’t be a priority for the Cardinals (for my take on the Bay-Holliday debate, click here). In short, Bay figures to command a contract in the 4 year $60 million range that Boston offered him. Considering Bay has been worth $15 million once in the past 3 years and he is already 31 years old with bad knees and worse defensive range, its easy to see how a Bay contract won’t be providing the surplus value (WAR-Actual Salary) that Holliday’s contract might. It appears that the best that the team that signs Bay can hope for is for Bay to just be worth his contract and not provide any surplus value, which is possible. That team would be paying almost the $4.4 million per WAR market value for Bay, which doesn’t seem like a bad thing. Why can’t the Cardinals do that?

                The Cardinals have a payroll that has consistently been around the $100 million mark. If the Cardinals payed the market value of $4.4 million per WAR to all of their roster, they would theoretically reach the .500 mark at about $88 million, meaning that at $100 million payroll would give them around a 83 win team. That’s not good enough to reach the playoffs most years, and obviously because of below market extensions like Pujols has signed and young players like Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus producing value for the league minimum not every player on the Cardinals is getting payed market value for their WAR, but it is easy to see that too many players providing 0 surplus or even negative value can really inhibit the Cardinals from being a good team, so instead the Cardinals have to look at some players on the free agent market that will likely be more valuable than their actual salaries. One way to do this is to sign Matt Holliday, but in case that doesn’t happen, the Cardinals have a backup plan.

                Mozeliak said that the priority would likely be pitching if Holliday departs, along with a lesser veteran bat at either third-base or left-field. Derrick Goold has said that the club has interest in Xavier Nady, who will likely command a salary of around $5 million since he is coming of an injury. Allen Craig will also be a candidate to see some time in left, so the 2010 left-field combination would cost around $5.4 million and produce around 2 WAR. If you compare that to the 5.5 WAR and $16-18 million Holliday is likely to pull in you will see that the Cardinals would have accumulate 3.5 WAR and only have $10.6-$12.6 million to do it. If the going rate is $4.4 million per WAR on the free agent market, theoretically the Cardinals shouldn’t be able to obtain that many WAR with the remaining dollars they have, but this year there is a way it is possible. With many talented pitchers who are coming off of injuries available, if the Cardinals were to sign someone like Rich Harden (I discussed here) or someone like Ben Sheets it is possible for the Cardinals to get 3.5 WAR for less than market value. The reason for this is that since these pitchers were injured, they won’t be getting paid market value for their performance and will sign lower cost and incentive laden deals instead. A healthy Sheets would probably be worth at least 3.5 WAR, which would mean for around the same price that the Cardinals would be paying Holliday, they would obtain roughly the same amount of WAR. This is why plan B’s priority will be pitching, and not Jason Bay. Sure signing a pitcher coming off of an injury is risky, but so is giving Matt Holliday 6 years and $100 million. To wrap this up, the Cardinals are looking for good values this off-season, and they will either get their value from Matt Holliday or from pitching. Each has risks, but each also carries the potential reward for another playoff birth. These next couple weeks will be some of the most exciting of the off-season, so it will be interesting to see if Mozeliak ends up using plan A or plan B.

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Despite this miscue, Holliday still figures to have plenty of options this off-season.

                It’s well-known that agent Scott Boras loves to drum up interest in his clients, often throwing out “mystery teams” and false reported offers to drive up the price on the players he is representing. So it wasn’t a good thing for Mr. Boras when ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted on Monday that the Yankees have no interest in Holliday, and that left-field wasn’t a priority for them this off-season. It would definitely be a good thing if the Yankees aren’t in the bidding for Holliday, but it’s not safe to rule them out yet. Think of them as a sleeping dog if you will, and should they awaken they could come in and give Holliday an offer that blows every other team out of the water, which would be much like the way they did last year with Mark Texiera. The Yankees are just one team though, and figure to just be one of the clubs in the running for Holliday’s services, so what teams can the Cardinals expect to be bidding against this off-season?

In no particular order:

*Mets-The Mets had a $140 million opening day payroll this past year, and reportedly could have around $25-30 million to spend. That’s very similar to what the Cardinals could have available, and the Mets may have more needs than just adding a left-fielder. It might make more sense for Omar Minaya to spread around his dollars to help his depth. The Mets already have Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright as an offensive core, and with a rotation with the fragile John Maine as the #2 starter and Omir Santos as the projected starting catcher the Mets would probably be better off complementing their roster with role players rather than blowing 2/3 of their budget on one guy. The Mets are reportedly interested in another Cardinal free agent, Joel Pineiro, which isn’t surprising. I have thought Pineiro would go to the Mets all along because of their need for a durable pitcher. Minaya was heavily criticized for signing Oliver Perez over the durable sinker-baller Derek Lowe last off-season, so look for him to try to correct his mistake by signing Pineiro, who is in the same mold as Lowe.

*Yankees-The Yankees might not spend on Matt Holliday, but certainly could if they wanted to. Pitching appears to be a priority for the bombers, but if the Yankees lose out on a pitcher like John Lackey don’t be surprised if they turn to Holliday as their second option in the free agent market. Most rumors and rumblings have the Yankees having a fairly quiet off-season, but until Johnny Damon is re-signed the possibility for Brian Cashman to pursue Holliday is there. It will be interesting to see what roles the Yankees decide to use Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in, as well as if they tender Chien-Ming Wang a contract. Assuming New York signs Pettitte, 2/3 of Joba, Hughes, and Wang could handle the back two spots in the rotation and give Brian Cashman much more financial flexibility to pursue Holliday.

*Red Sox-The Red Sox had a $121 million dollar payroll last season, and have some financial flexibility going into this winter. I expect the Red Sox to re-sign Jason Bay for left-field, but if for some reason that doesn’t happen they would probably make Matt Holliday a priority. The best thing that could happen for the Cardinals is for Bay to re-sign with Boston. If he leaves, they are probably the biggest threat to land Holliday.

*Angels-The Angels are another big market club that could enter the Holliday bidding. If they lose some of their own free agents like John Lackey and Chone Figgins, the Angels could move in on Holliday to add offense even though they already have Juan Rivera in left-field. Recently we learned that the Angels aren’t “currently pursuing” Matt Holliday, but if both Lackey and Figgins leave things could change.

*Braves-The one thing that is holding the Braves back from being a force in the N.L. East is the lack of a big bat, especially in left-field. The Braves don’t have the financial flexibility of the Cardinals this off-season (GM Frank Wren said the Braves probably wouldn’t be in the mix for Holliday and Bay in a radio interview on XM), but whenever a team identifies a player as a potential “missing piece to the puzzle” the incentive to spend is there. If signing Holliday meant the difference between 85 and 90 wins, the Braves would be foolish not to add get into the Holliday bidding because the potential revenue gained from getting 90 wins and a possible play-off birth is greater than saving money by not signing Holliday and being an 85ish win team.

*Giants-No potential contender needs offense more than the Giants, and if it wasn’t for their horrible signings of Barry Zito ($126 million) and Aaron Rowand ($60 million), they might be a more serious contender for Holliday. However, as Buster Olney tweeted, the Giants would have $50 million committed to three players without having Lincecum, Cain, or Sandoval signed for the long-term.

*Mariners-Seattle is another team looking for offense, and also apparently has some serious cash if they reportedly are in the bidding for John Lackey. They might try to sign their ace Felix Hernandez to a long-term deal this off-season, but if he wants GM Jack Zduriencik will have some financial flexibility to work with this winter and get some desperately needed offense.

                So altogether it appears that the Cardinals could have up to 7 teams competing with them for Matt Holliday’s services. Although it’s unlikely that all 7 teams will be in the bidding, the potential for Scott Boras to work his magic is there. Whether the Cardinals offer is good enough will depend on if big- market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox stay out of the bidding, and also if Matt Holliday is not looking for every last dollar. Goold and Strauss have stated that there is a possibility that the Cardinals could put forth the best offer to Holliday, but as owner Bill Dewitt said if the big-market teams get involved the likelihood of John Mozeliak giving Boras the best offer isn’t good. Don’t look for any deal for Holliday to get done soon either, as Scott Boras typically likes to wait things out and try to locate a desperate team. Look for a Holliday deal to happen after the winter meetings, usually in the late December to early January period.

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John Mozeliak won't blink first in a staredown with Scott Boras.

                Well the GM Meetings have come and gone without much noise, as the Cardinals did not make any transactions. This is not unexpected however, as traditionally the GM Meetings are a place to lay groundwork for future deals, to get a sense of what teams are looking for, and also is an opportunity to get and early gauge on how the free agent market will play out. There were also some interesting tidbits about possible plans that John Mozeliak has this off-season, most of which came from St. Louis Post Dispatch writer Joe “El Diablo” Strauss (who really does a fantastic job of gathering info from sources inside the Cardinal organization. If you want legitimate rumors, read his stuff!).

                The big question on everyone’s mind is of course about whether Matt Holliday is coming back. He is the top free agent on the market, and with an agent like Scott Boras, this will be a tough sign for Mozeliak. Boras has said there won’t be any “Home-Town Discount” for the Cardinals if they want to sign Holliday, but that isn’t a shock to the Cards, who weren’t counting on one anyway. They reportedly would like to sign Holliday for $17 million a year, which wouldn’t be considered a discount of any kind. Both Mozeliak and Boras have said that the Cardinals haven’t made an offer to Holliday yet, which is a smart move on the Mozeliak’s part. Holliday is going to the open market, so there isn’t a point of putting an offer on the table yet that has almost zero chance of getting accepted. The plan is to let Holliday test the market, then when the Cardinals feel like they have a pretty good sense of where the market is, give Boras and Holliday a fair offer, and make it final. Mozeliak is being very smart by not engaging in a bidding war with Scott Boras, as many general managers in the past have. The Cardinals might not sign Holliday in the end, but they also aren’t going to get themselves into a franchise crippling contract either. I applaud Mozeliak for staying tough and playing hardball with Boras, as that’s not something a lot of other gm’s have been able to do.

                With Mozeliak’s acknowledgment that Holliday might not come back, the Cardinals are engaging in their parallel tracks plan and considering the other options for left-field and other parts on the roster. Mo’ has said that if Holliday does sign elsewhere, that the Cardinals aren’t going to be able to replace what Holliday brings in another left-field signing, which is obviously true. Holliday is the best free agent available, so the Cardinals will look to supplement their roster in other ways, which according to Joe Strauss could include beefing up the rotation, taking a look at the third base market, and adding a set-up reliever that could occasionally spell a tired Ryan Franklin in the closer’s role. As for left, Strauss says that the Cardinals likely won’t be involved in the bidding for Jason Bay’s services, as some in the organization feel that Bay is too much of a defensive liability. This is exactly what I said in a previous article, and I still feel that the Cardinals should either sign Holliday or go in a different direction that doesn’t include signing Bay (although I fully expect Bay to be back in Boston next season). Last Saturday’s Free Agent Profile Xavier Nady is also a consideration, and while Nady isn’t a star, he would be a low-cost alternative for left which would prevent the Cardinals from starting two rookies at third and in left with David Freese and Allen Craig. Luckily the Cardinals aren’t doing Jeff Gorden’s suggestion and signing Mark Derosa right now as an insurance policy either, an idea that I also dismissed in a previous article. Strauss also says that the Cardinals could be interested in adding to their starting rotation, which I think is a very good idea. The rotation depth is pretty thin, and a Cardinal rotation with Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and Garcia next season carries a pretty large injury risk. Strauss points out that the Cardinals aren’t interested in the market’s top starter in John Lackey, which is understandable. Lackey reportedly is using A.J. Burnett’s 5 year $82.5 million dollar deal signed last off-season as the starting point, and with the Cardinals already having 3/5ths of their starting rotation signed long term, a shorter term deal for a starting pitcher would probably be best. There also doesn’t appear to be much interest in retaining Joel Pineiro, rumored to have a 3 year and $30 million dollar price tag. For my take on why the Cardinals shouldn’t resign Joel, check back to this article. Finally, Strauss reports that he isn’t aware of any interest in free agent third-basemen Chone Figgins, who I think would be a good fit (here’s the link to that article). That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cardinals aren’t interested in Figgins, but with the Holliday situation in limbo there is only so much Mozeliak can do at this point.

                Overall I am very happy with John Mozeliak’s plan this off-season. He is very interested in signing Matt Holliday, but isn’t going to get into a bidding war and let Boras leave him paralyzed this off-season. He will instead use his parallel tracks plan, which includes spreading the dollars that would have gone to Holliday around to various parts of the roster. The way I see it, the Cardinals will be a good team if Holliday is brought back, and they will also put a competitive roster on the field if Holliday isn’t. This off-season is going to be a wild ride Cardinal fans, so let’s just sit back and watch it unfold.

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A healthy Xavier Nady would be a solid option if the Cardinals fail to retain Matt Holliday

                In light of John Mozeliak’s recent comments about the importance of free agency in this upcoming off-season, it is important to have an idea on what types of players might interest the Cardinals. Obviously Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are the class of free agency, but there are other options out there in the next tier talent wise. One such option that St. Louis Post Dispatch writer Derrick Goold believes is a potential fit for the Redbirds is Xavier Nady, who Cardinals fans got to know during his tenure with the Pirates from 2006 to 2008. Nady is not a star or core piece like Matt Holliday is, but he does have some positive qualities.

                In 2008, Nady’s last full healthy season, he managed to put up a robust .305/.357/.510 slash line for an .867 ops. Nady also amassed 25 homers, drove in 97, and scored 76 runs. Xavier doesn’t have exceptional plate discipline, as he walked only 39 times to go against 103 strikeouts. Still though Nady was a valuable offensive player and would have ranked as the Cardinals third best hitter behind Pujols and Holliday this past year. There are some questions about Nady’s offense, however, as his career ops is .792, which is just slightly above average. Still it should be noted that in Nady’s last 3 healthy seasons his ops went from .790 to .805 to .867, so it does seem that he reaching his peak as an offensive threat.

                Nady can hit, but that is only half of the equation as Adam Dunn has proved since a run saved is just as important as a run created. Nady has some ugly UZR numbers up until is his breakout season in 2008, as he was worth around negative -9 runs in the field both seasons. Then in 2008 Nady was 3.8 runs on defense. Some of the improvement was probably the result of him not having to play center field, where he is -10 runs below average in just 45 games in his career. For the Cardinals, Nady would likely be the starting left fielder, where he has been 1 run above average in 100 career games. Overall Nady would probably not save or cost the Cardinals any runs with his glove, which is more valuable than it sounds considering other potential options like Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, and Jason Bay’s defense would each probably cost the Cardinals at least ten runs.

                Obviously the big x-factor with Nady is health. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but if he is healthy he could be a nice value on a short term deal. Nady was worth 4 wins over replacement level in 2008, which produced over 18 million dollars in value. For comparison’s sake, Matt Holliday can be expected to be worth about 5.5 WAR, so while Nady certainly isn’t Matt Holliday, he isn’t a bad player either. Even if Nady regresses to something like a 2.5-3 WAR level, he would still produce between 10 to 13 million dollars in value, which is almost guaranteed to be more than what his actual salary would be. Coming off and injury, Nady would probably be looking for a 1-2 year deal to prove that he is healthy for a salary that would probably be in the neighborhood of around 5 million annually plus incentives.

                To summarize, Xavier Nady could be a very solid option should the Cardinals fail to retain Matt Holliday. Nady can reasonably be expected to produce at an .800 ops clip or above while being an average defender. Nady probably isn’t the 4 WAR player he was in 2008, but even if he is worth 2.5 to 3 WAR he would still be a valuable player that would be more than worth the salary on a short-term contract. Xavier Nady isn’t a superstar, but is an option that is worth considering if John Mozeliak is unable to reel in the big one in Holliday.

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Adam Dunn would add some sock from the left side to the Cardinal lineup.

                Since arguably the entire off-season is dictated on whether Matt Holliday returns or walks as a free agent, it makes sense for Cardinals to have some backup plans for left field in case the inevitable(?) happens. Once such backup plan the Cardinals could consider is Adam Dunn. Cardinal fans know the story with Dunn, as they saw him primarily do 3 things during his tenure with the Reds: take walks, hit home runs, and play bad defense. So would Dunn be a good target for the Cardinals to consider? In considering this scenario I am taking Dunn’s offense, defense, and cost of acquiring him in forming my consensus.

                 Dunn is obviously a very potent bat. Some fans point to his high strikeout totals and totally dismiss Dunn’s offense, but he more than makes up for those admittedly high K totals by being an on-base machine with power. Dunn had a .398 obp in 2009, and carries a .383 mark for his career. Dunn’s batting average isn’t high, it’s below .250 for his career, but Dunn still got on base more in 2009 by hitting .267 this year than Matt Holliday did while hitting .313. Dunn also has prodigious power, hitting 38 homers and 29 doubles which helped him post a slugging percentage of .529 in 2009. So Dunn gets on base and hits for power, two attributes that the Cardinals could really use an upgrade in, but what about his defense?

                Everyone knows Dunn is very limited defensively, but just how much so? Besides, as Joe Strauss has pointed out, the Cardinals have sacrificed defense in left-field before. Well to be kind, Adam Dunn is awful defensively. His defense was -14.4 runs below an average left fielder in 2009, which is bad enough, but considering that Dunn only played 62 games at the position this year makes that figure look even worse. If Dunn had played in 150 games in left, his defense would have cost the Nationals over 28 runs if he continued to play defense at that pace! Dunn also played 22 games in right, where he was -8.1 runs below average, and 67 games at first base, where he was -13.9 runs below average. I didn’t think I would see a time where Chris Duncan would be a better option defensively out in left field, but if the Cardinals traded for Dunn that would be the case.

                When you combine Dunn’s offensive prowess with his defensive liabilities, it made Dunn be worth 1.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this past season, which produced $5.2 million dollars in value. Considering that Dunn’s 2010 contract will pay him $12 million, it’s unlikely that his performance will match his salary. Obviously Dunn is also under the Nationals control right now, so the Cardinals would have to put together a package to send to Washington. Since Dunn already probably won’t be worth the contract he is getting, when you consider that the Cardinals will also have to send additional pieces over to the Nationals its hard to imagine John Mozeliak coming out ahead on this one, even if Dunn is a type A free agent and the Cardinals get draft picks for him at the end of the season. The draft picks from type A free agents are worth on average worth $5.5 million dollars in value minus the signing bonus that they collect. Basically if Dunn reproduces his 2009, he will produce 5.2 million dollars in value and then provide an additional 5.5 million dollars in value if he leaves as a type A free agent and signs with with a team that finished in 16-30 in the standings. Dunn will also be getting paid 12 million in addition to the value of the players the Cardinals would have to send over to acquire Dunn, so in a Dunn trade the Cardinals would likely be sending over much more value than they would be receiving.

                In conclusion, Adam Dunn is a fantastic offensive player, there is no denying that. For as good as he is offensively however, his defense is just as bad. In terms of overall WAR, Allen Craig has a good chance of matching Dunn’s output next season, and Craig will only be paid the league minimum and doesn’t have to be traded for. It’s hard to imagine Dunn being a good value when all the factors (salary, performance, type A compensation picks, players traded) are accounted for. Overall the Cardinals need to look elsewhere for left field options in case Matt Holliday departs, and luckily there are plenty of players out there who can fill that void.

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