End of the Week Randomizing
Item #1–The Cardinals announced pitchers and catchers will report Feb. 13 and the first full-squad workout will be on Feb. 19…
Item #2–This week the Cardinals acquired Ryan Theriot for Blake Hawksworth. Already fielding gurus are projecting 150 more groundballs will get to the outfield with Theriot at shortstop than Brendan Ryan.
Itrem #3–The Winter Meetings start this week and usually many rumors are floated out that get fans excited but few actually happen.
Item #4–Cardinals have made it known they are hoping to trade Brendan Ryan at or before next weeks Winter Meetings. Have they ruined any good return by doing this? Does he have value above a run-of-the-mill average player? He can field but can he hit?
Item #5–What holes still need to be filled? In my opinion we need a backup catcher, a new second baseman, a ready to fill in or start third baseman and maybe a corner outfielder, That depends on the position Skip Schumaker is in come opening day.
Item #6- I am looking for a CONDO or apartment or any place to stay in Jupiter Florida for Spring Training. Either for the entire month of March or the last 2 weeks of March. Let me if you have info for me at tom@cardinalsgm.com
Item #7– Unrelated, I am off for a few days to see the Christmas Shows in Branson, Missouri.
So What’s the Deal?
Ryan Theriot for Blake Hawksworth.
First what did the Cardinals lose? Hawksworth had become expendable. Tons of right handed arms in the bullpen and had shown nothing special in the rotation. He was a pitcher we could afford to let go. Good luck in Hollywood to Blake Hawksworth!
What did they gain? A serviceable shortstop that makes $2.6M for 2011. Theriot struggled in Los Angeles after he got there. Other writers aren;t calling him ex-Dodger player but prefer ex-Cub player. I would rather have his Cub years than his Dodger time anyway. The talk out of the gate is he is our starting shortstop “unless something else happens.”
Seriously, something else needs to happen. Theriot has a weak arm for a shortstop and we surely will not allow Brendan Ryan to sit and watch this take place. With Schumaker manning second base, it now appears that more infield help is on the way and RTyan Theriot may become our starter at second, Ryan will be traded and Schumaker becomes back-up outfielder and spells innings at second base.
Something has to happen. Look at other teams that wanted Theriot and the majority wanted him as their primary back-up, but NO, not us we anoint him starter.
Keep busy, Mo, find us some more infielders!
Backup catcher.
I know, most blogs are not written about backup spots on the team. Well this one is. Today Matt Pagnozzi signed a minor league deal with the Rockies. I am a bit bewildered. I thought he would go into Spring Training as one of several to spell Yadi as catcher when needed. Then he was removed from the 40 man and now he is gone.
Something happened at the end of the year. When Molina was hurting we used several catchers and Pagnozzi was moderately successful. I guess the brain trust saw something they didn’t like and cut him loose.
So who backs up? Probably the leading candidate is Bryan Anderson. I would not be surprised to see him in a trade this winter.
For purposes of my blog, let’s say he is not the one. Who is it? Veteran like Bengie Molina or Russell Martin? Give me your views.
Berkman as a Cardinal?
Lance Berkman has named the Cardinals as a team that has shown some interest in him. He would be a corner OF and replacement for the resting Albert Pujols.
Now if Berkman can recoup his prior ability I am all for it. Some conspiracy theorists have discussed it as the Cardinals insurance for of/when Pujols is not signed and a first baseman is needed.
Berkman has problems hitting lefties and we have enough of those. I am mixed…..
Would you sign him and for how much?
Say it ain’t so!
UGH. The Cardinals have announced “floating ticket prices” beginning next year. You will get charged more for pitching matchups, promotional days, certain teams coming in and other issues.
Dollars are almighty! So what used to be a freebie (promotional days) will now cost you more to go to. Lincecum vs Wainwright will add dollars to your tickets. This doesn’t fit the family plan for the average family. Again, they are screwed over for the “supply and demand” economics.
Ok, they need to generate money for the impending signing of Albert Pujols. Let’s stick it to the man ahead of time and then when we sign him we will raise them again. I am not a happy man about this!
check this out:
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_1898c898-f373-11df-b053-00127992bc8b.html
The most popular sports ticket in town will now be set by what the club describes as “dynamic pricing,” a system in which single-game prices fluctuate, or “float,” depending on an array of factors including opponent, pitching match-up, weather and promotions.
Weather? Are you kidding me?
I guess I will watch more Fox Sports Midwest. That is itself is another UGH.
2010 is in the books…
The Cardinals had promise. But oh so frustrating! It was difficult. I use the phrase that a baseball season is a marathon not a sprint. Well, we got about 20 miles out of the 26 to finish the season in first place.
Off-season, Hot Stove League or whatever you want to call it is upon us. Be sure to come back often as we have a United Cardinals Blogger roundtable starting up on Wednesday, Oct. 6th and YOUR TRULY gets to start it off.
Here is how it works:
one blogger (that will be Cardinalsgm on the first day) e-mails out a question to the other United Cardinal Blogger participants, which allows them a day of discussions and responses. The next day, that blogger(me) posts the transcript of of the discussion on their blog, while the next blogger in line starts the project all over again. Looks like fun, doesn’t it?
I will be linking up the other sites after they complete their blogs with our comments.
Here is the complete list of participants:
Wednesday, October 6: CardinalsGM
Thursday, October 7: Intangiball
Friday, October 8: Redbird Report
Monday, October 11: i70baseball
Tuesday, October 12: Cardinal Diamond Diaries
Wednesday, October 13: Bird Brained
Thursday, October 14: RetroSimba
Friday, October 15: Welcome To Baseball Heaven
Monday, October 18: Pitchers Hit Eighth
Tuesday, October 19: Play A Hard Nine (Erik)
Wednesday, October 20: Reading Redbird
Thursday, October 21: The McBrayer-Baseball Blog
Friday, October 22: 85% Sports
Monday, October 25: Stan Musial’s Stance
Tuesday, October 26: Redbird Rants
Wednesday, October 27: Fungoes
Thursday, October 28: Play A Hard Nine (Steve)
Friday, October 29: Busch Birds
Monday, November 1: C70 At The Bat
Be sure to stop by and read them several times a week. Cardinal fans have some very talented writers with some fantastic thoughts.
Some Yadi pondering.
Yadi
A friend of mine last week reminded me of a quote from Branch Rickey that said, “it is better to trade a player one year too soon than one year too late.” With that in mind let’s talk about a topic that doesn’t get much coverage?
Should the Cardinals consider a trade offer for Yadier Molina? What could they get in return for this All Star catcher? Are the current catchers in the system capable of having an adequate major league season?
First thing that comes to mind is his defensive prowess. His ability to block balls in the dirt, his apparent trust he gets from the pitchers and his talent for throwing out runners. Do they equate into winning games or just darn good job? I think we could safely say he has been able to win some games for us with these abilities. How many is a bit harder to figure, although some statistical analysis has most likely been done on that. I am guessing 3-5 games per year.
Offensively, Yadi would rate about average to slightly better than average at a lifetime .268 clip and about a half dozen homers. Yadi has averaged just short of 50 RBI’s in his career. Are these stats that another catcher could attain for us? Considering our current system we have Pagnozzi, Anderson and Hill in the pipeline. Our they offensive enough?
What could we get for him? I believe some quality player or players. He would be sought after by several teams looking to upgrade. It is widely reported that Molina and Pujols are almost joined at the hip. If Albert cant be signed, would we lose Yadier down the road? If Yadi is traded, would Pujols look more quickly to jettison out of St Louis?
I believe it should at least be a consideration. I did hear Mozeliak say, in person, that four spots are set… one of them is catcher. I don’t believe it will happen, but should it?
Maybe I should see what my friends at Casey’s General Store think?
Back to the Basics
This is back to an earlier column I wrote a few months ago. As we prepare to go to the off season, here is my summary in what went wrong in as few words as I can.
Ok, just for point of reference, I recently retired after 34 years of teaching in the public school system. I understand, i see the value of repetition. that is one of the best ways to learn.
Practice.
Someone shows you how to do something correctly. This doesn’t appear to be what the Cardinal coaching staff does very well or maybe not at all. The team is struggling in defense this year. The errors are mounting up.
Situational hitting appears to be left out of the equation. We can teach them to swing from the heels. To turn on a pitch at every count of the at bat. But we can’t seem to move runners along to get in scoring position.
Baserunning is horrid. One thing that would help is for them to watch their base coach and actually do as they are told. Quit this looking over the shoulder while rounding second base and trying to score when the “stop sign” is put up. Another thing is attempting to steal bases because you ‘thought” you could make it. A very few should get the green light and the rest go on a sign.
Now is the pitching. Can’t we talk to pitchers about not throwing the same pitch 6 times in a row? one change-up or two are fine but it doesn’t remain a change-up if it is your pitch a half dozen times in a row. Reliever need to understand they are in the Major Leagues and their fastball is as overwhelming as it was in lower leagues.
Teaching is important in ALL profession in order for them to be successful.
Tony LaRussa has a propensity to surround himself with veteran players and I feel it is so he doesn’t have to “teach” them the ways of the game. I can attest to the fact that I have coached different levels in the school setting and you actually say the same thing over and over at each level. Some more advanced than others but it is really the same thing.
That is my rant for the 2010 Cardinals. They just didn’t learn. Before you remind me they are professionals, I am telling you they need teaching and repetition too.
What’s Left (And What to Do With It)?
John Smoltz would be a fine addition to an already robust Cardinal rotation.
With Matt Holliday signed, the Cardinals filled their biggest and most pressing need, which was to acquire an elite bat to add to the lineup. Filling the left field vacancy isn’t the only need however, as there are other, albeit smaller, holes that John Mozeliak might want to fill before the season starts. Some of the potential needs the Redbirds face going into 2010 include adding another starter, adding a late inning reliever, a third-basemen, and a backup outfielder. The Cardinals are obviously on a limited budget now that they signed Holliday, and it’s being reported Mozeliak may only have $6-7 million left to work with. With a lot of free agents still unsigned, Mozeliak is in a position where he can let the market play out to see what bargains may be available in the next couple of months. It should also be noted that just because Mo’ has $6-7 million left to spend, don’t expect him to use all of his remaining funds before opening day. The Cardinals have traditionally been a team that likes to save some “dry powder” for mid-season acquisitions, which would make sense again in 2010. By saving some money to use at the trade-deadline, Mozeliak can wait to see which area of his club needs to be upgraded the most rather than maxing out his budget in the off-season and inhibiting his in-season flexibility. If the Cardinals are going make a move before the season, however, where should John Mozeliak choose to upgrade?
Late inning relief-The Cardinals currently have Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, and Josh Kinney all vying for bullpen spots heading into 2010. The Cardinals traded away a lot of their relief depth in the Khalil Greene and Mark Derosa deals last summer, but developing relievers hasn’t been a problem for Jeff Luhnow and the player development department and therefore probably isn’t the most pressing need going into next year.
Backup outfielder-With rehabbing Joe Mather the only potential backup outfielder with major league experience, the Cardinals could defintely use a veteran backup outfielder. Ryan Church seems to be a good fit, as he would represent a left-handed option off of the bench and can play all 3 outfield spots at a potentially low cost. A guy like Allen Craig definitely deserves a shot to be on the team, but Mozeliak could do worse than to add a guy like Church and his .787 career ops to help bolster the bench.
Third base-With David Freese the only legitimate option, the Cardinals’ depth is thin at the hot corner. Freese however, is also the best bet that the club has to fill one of its remaining voids from within. Freese is coming off of an injury riddled season and a recent DUI arrest, but is still a better option than signing a declining Miguel Tejada. The Cardinals should go into 2010 with Freese at the hot corner, and use some of the “dry powder” on a third base upgrade in the season if Freese falters.
Starting Rotation-On paper this is the one area of the club that appears to be set. With Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny, Kyle Lohse, and rookie Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals potentially have a very robust rotation, but the starting pitching depth behind these five is not strong. When you consider that every member of the projected rotation has missed significant time in the last two years due to injury, and that guys like PJ Walters and rule-5 draftee Ben Jukich the “sixth starters,” it would make sense for Mozeliak to add another starting pitcher to the fold before the season. This would enable the Cardinals to start Jaime Garcia in AAA, where he could continue to build up strength after his Tommy John surgery. Ideally a guy like John Smoltz would be signed, but may be out of the Cardinals price range.
In conclusion, the Cardinals improved their 2010 club tremendously and are probably the division favorites after re-signing Matt Holliday. There are still some potential holes, however, and a limited budget to work with. Although some are calling for a late-inning reliever to help Ryan Franklin close out games or a third-basemen, I think it would make the most sense to add a backup outfielder like Ryan Church and another starting pitcher like John Smoltz. It’s unclear how much wiggle room John Mozeliak would like to keep for the season, but Cardinal fans should be hoping that he uses some of it on either another starting pitcher or a reserve outfielder.
The Eleventh Hour
It appears that barring any 11th hour mystery teams entering the fold, the Cardinals and John Mozeliak might finally get the player they have targeted all off-season as early as next week. In an article written by Derrick Goold, some sources within the Cardinal organization say that a deal for Holliday is “gaining momentum” and that progress is “strong.” The length of the deal has varied, with most sources stating that it is between 5-8 years. It’s likely that the contract would be 5-6 guaranteed years, with several option years on the end. The likely terms of the option years would probably either be team options or vesting ones based on Holliday’s performance. The exact dollar amount is also an unknown at this point, but it is reported that Boras and Holliday want an $18 million average annual value. Since Jason Bay’s contract with the Mets is a $16.5 million AAV, it’s likely that Holliday will fall somewhere between $16.5 and $18 million range. It should also be known that any potential deal for Holliday will also include a no-trade clause, especially since the Cardinals gave one to Kyle Lohse last off-season and that Scott Boras has stated it is a priority for Holliday.
Overall I like this potential deal for the Cardinals. Signing Holliday would improve the club more than any other move that John Mozeliak could make (barring an unforeseen trade) this winter. With Allen Craig likely being worth around 1.5 Wins Above Replacement, if Holliday could replicate last year’s 5.7 WAR season it would be a 4.2 Win upgrade for the Cardinals. When you consider Holliday’s salary will likely be around $17-$18 million (or less if it is a back-loaded contract), the Cardinals would be paying around $4.17 million dollars per Win, which is a fair price. In fact, Holliday could very well be a nice value for the Cardinals next season at that price, because of where the Cardinals sit on the Win Curve. *Pease note that the vertical column on the graph represents the $ value attached to each win for a team*
Team Wins
As you can see, the value of wins is not equal across the scale. A 5 WAR player to an awful team like the Pirates, who would be on the far left end of the scale is not worth the same amount of money as the same 5 WAR player is to a team in the middle of the bell curve, which represents a team like the Cardinals. Conversely, a 5 WAR player to an excellent team like the Yankees (who would be on the far right) isn’t worth very much either, as the Yankees will likely win around 100 games and the extra wins that the player would represent doesn’t change the odds of making the playoffs much (for a great read on this subject check out this article.)The excellent writers (Erik Manning and Steve Sommer) at Play a Hard Nine have projected the Cardinals at around a 87 win team without Matt Holliday, which is 3 wins above the second place Cubs in their projections. Adding Matt Holliday would likely put the Cardinals in the 90 win range, which almost guarantees a playoff berth. The extra revenue that comes with a playoff berth means there is a higher incentive to add a player that represents “the final piece of the puzzle” to a team that is close to the 90 win level like the Cardinals. Even though the Cardinals are projected to win the central division by 3 games, it should also be noted that most projection systems can vary by as many as 5 to 10 wins in either direction, so to not sign Holliday because the Cardinals are projected to win is a risky strategy.
Overall Matt Holliday is a unique opportunity for the Cardinals. He represents the biggest potential upgrade that the Cardinals could do via free agency at a point where any extra wins are at a premium for the organization. The amount of years being discussed are a bit concerning, but the Cardinals are at a “win now” stage with Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright, and Molina all in the primes of their careers. If Holliday is signed sometime early next week, Cardinal fans should be happy that John Mozeliak made the best possible upgrade he could make this off-season.
