Pythagorus and Major League Baseball Go Together Quite Well
I was reading several articles today and felt the need to reprint one here that I found quite interesting. If you take the Pythagoreum theory and make it work for baseball you can do a rather accurate indicator has to how well a team should do for the season.
This is from Covers and you can find the entire article here. Covers is a great read on a daily basis as they have great insight into sports from a different angle.
I have reprinted this with their permission. Here is a portion of the article……
The baseball version of the Pythagorean theorem uses the numbers of runs scored and allowed by a team to determine its expected record. The formula is to square the number of runs scored and divide it by the numbers of runs scored squared plus the number of runs allowed squared.In other words, a team that scores 700 runs in a season and allows 700 runs in a season would be expected to finish exactly at .500 with an 81-81 record over a 162-game schedule. A team that scores 800 runs and allowed 600 runs would be expected to have a .640 winning percentage and a record of 104-58. Conversely, a team that scores 600 runs and allows 800 run would be expected to play at a .360 clip and finish 58-104.There are four teams this season who have underperformed their Pythagorean records by two wins. The math says these teams are poised for a regression to the mean, stat talk for a market correction, and could be good plays if undervalued by the oddsmakers. Let’s take a look at the four teams and some starting pitchers who would benefit from their teams’ change of luck.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS The Cardinals are scoring 5.18 runs a game and allowing 3.77, which should be good for a 14-8 records. Instead, they are 12-10. Despite the inefficiency, the Cardinals are hitting a National League-best .327 with runners in scoring position and two outs but that has been mitigated by grounding into double plays in 19 percent of their plate appearances with a runner on first base and less than two outs, the worst figure in the league. When the regression to the mean occurs, Chris Carpenter should benefit. The Cardinals have lost all five of his starts this season, even though his ERA of 3.90 is just 0.05 below the NL average. Furthermore, he has been the worst pitcher against the moneyline at minus-797.
ATLANTA BRAVES The Braves’ averages per game are 3.78 runs scored and 3.30 runs allowed, which should translate to a 13-10 record. Instead, they are a game under .500 at 11-12, though the regression seemed to start over the weekend when they swept a three-game series from the Giants in San Francisco. Still, the Braves have the second-worst on-base percentage (.302) and third lowest batting average (.229) in the NL.Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe are candidates for better records when things start evening out. Both are 2-3, even though Hanson has a 3.21 ERA and Lowe’s is 3.25 after five starts. The Braves are also 2-3 in their starts with Lowe at minus-149 against the line and Hanson at minus-220.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS The Athletics are giving up just 3.09 runs a game, best in the American League, while scoring 3.64. They should be 13-9 despite the lack of offense but are instead 11-11. The Athletics’ offense ranks among the bottom half in the AL in all categories but its biggest weakness is a lack of power as their .354 slugging percentage is 12th in the 14-team league.A resurgent Brandon McCarthy, back in top form after years of injuries, is the starter who figures to gain the most if the Athletics enjoy a market correction. He is only 1-1 but has an outstanding 2.10 ERA through four starts. The Athletics are just 1-3 in his starts and -216 against the line.
CINCINNATI REDS The Reds should be 13-9 rather than 11-11 since they are averaging 5.18 runs a game and giving up 4.41. The rotation is missing injured Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey and it shows as the Reds have issued 80 walks this season, the third-highest total in the NL.The pitching certainly hasn’t been good but there is one starter who has pitched better than his record and figures to get some wins when things smooth out. That is Sam LeCure, who is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA but has an outstanding 17/4 strikeout/walk ratio. The Reds have gone 1-2 and minus-187 in his three starts.
Now that is fascinating stuff. However, following the Cardinals everyday we should have at least 4 more wins due to the 4 blown saves that the Cardinals have given up already this year.
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Just an update that it has been about a year since I retired from teaching English and Writing. I haven’t found anything I don’t like about retirement yet. I love to sit and do internet writing about sports and wouldn’t mind doing more of it if the opportunity exists.
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Opening Day Power Rankings-Let’s Get the Party Started!
United Cardinal Bloggers project- American League Projections
The United Cardinal bloggers are doing their project this month by having each blogger give their projections for each division. Today we are doing the ENTIRE American League. Here are my projections along with the number of wins and losses for each team. Be sure to give your opinions on how close you think I came to your thoughts.
American League East
Red Sox 97 -65
Yankees 93- 69
Rays 84 -78
Blue Jays 77- 85
Orioles 75- 87
American League Central
Twins 88-77
White Sox 83-79
Tigers 81- 81
Royals 68-92
Indians 65-96
American League West
Rangers 92-70
Angels 86-76
Athletics 79-83
Mariners 70-92
That’s it for the American League.
Tomorrow I depart for Jupiter Florida for Spring Training. I have plans to attend 5 games while hanging out in the 80 degree weather.
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Fantasy Friday- Checking out Shortstops and Third Baseman
It is time for some more fantasy information. It is Fantasy Friday.
Check out my list and telling me where I am faulty in my thoughts.
SHORTSTOP
1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Elvis Andrus
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Jose Reyes
6. Derek Jeter
7. Stephen Drew
8. Alexei Ramirez
9. Rafael Furcal
10. Ian Desmond
11. Alcides Escobar
12. Starlin Castro
13. Cliff Pennington
14. Mike Aviles
THIRD BASEMEN
1. Evan Longoria
2. David Wright
3. Ryan Zimmerman
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Adrian Beltre
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Casey McGehee
8. Michael Young
9. Jose Bautista
10. Scott Rolen
11. Pablo Sandoval
12. Pedro Alvarez
13. Aramis Ramirez
14. Chase Headley
How do Player Options Work? We Have the Answer.
Today I want to give a bit of a lesson on OPTIONS and how they work in MLB to the best of my recollection. What prompted me to this is that the Cardinals sent a few players down to the minor league camp this week and Zack Cox was one of those and his arbitration clock starting ticking when they exercised an option on him for it.
What are OPTIONS?
When a player is first added to the 40 man roster, he is given a total of three option years. While they are often referred to as options, this is a little misleading. In a given option year, a player may be sent down to the minors and recalled as often as the team pleases while only using one option. In other words, an option is a season during which the club may to move him to and from the minor leagues without exposing him to other clubs. Basically, options are another measure of control that a team has on its prospects–one that allows a club to send its prospects that need a little seasoning or are blocked at the major league level down to the minors, where they can get in some good at-bats and work on their issues. There are a couple of exceptions to this rule, however.
One of these exceptions is that a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a player from the 25 man active roster on the disabled list during the 10-day window, in which case the prospect may be recalled. Another is that a player with 5 years of Major League service may not be sent to the minor leagues on an optional assignment without his consent. Thus, teams don’t have options on some arbitration eligible players due to their service time, as well as all players eligible for free agency. These players are usually designated for assignment, a topic that will be explored later in the waivers session. Let’s just look at the prospects for now.
After his three option years are exhausted, a player is out of options. Then he must clear waivers before he may be sent to the minors again.
An option year is used:
However, an option year is NOT used:
Also, in very rare cases a player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of professional experience–where a full season is defined as being on an active pro (major or minor) roster for at least 90 days in a season–thus short season leagues like the Pioneer and Northwest leagues don’t count as a full season for players.
This exception is really quite rare though, as teams would have to sign a player to a major league contract immediately (like Matt Wieters or Buster Posey was, I believe), then keep that player in the minors for three full years. It doesn’t happen often, as most players are signed to a major league contract when they’re about ready to contribute on the major league level.
This is it in a nutshell. Keep your eyes and ears primed and when your Buffalo Wild Wings friends start talking about baseball players and their options, you can join in the conversation.
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Be sure to check out my LIVE BLOGGING while I am in Florida for SPRING TRAINING later this month.
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“You’re Looking Good Just Like a Snake in the Grass”
Those words come from the song “Don’t Bring me Down” by Electric Light Orchestra. What does that have to do baseball? I am going to give you a few teams that are lying in the grass, like a snake, waiting to come out and take over their division and on to the playoffs. I would venture to guess that is what the San Francisco Giants did in 2010. They were not particularly on anyones radar at the start of the season to be crowned World Champions.
Who gets that distinction in 2011? Let’s preview a few teams that are considered good but not top tiered teams to win it all. Boston, Philadelphia, New York Yankees and San Francisco are the teams most are touting as the teams to beat. Here some of the teams that I give the “snake in the grass” title for this season.
The winner of the American League Central. I believe it could be the Twins or the White Sox.
Minnesota Twins- The Twins added Tsuyoshi Nishioka who was a standout in the Pacific Coast League. Add him with a healthy Morneau and Joe Nathan and this team may be an underdog worthy of attention. The White Sox added players and lots of money to their roster.
Chicago White Sox- The players add on the South Side of Chicago are Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Jesse Crain. But gone from the team are Bobby Jenks and J.J. Putz. If Ozzie Guillen doesn’t implode, this team could make it to the playoffs in 2011.
From the National League we have the Milwaukee Brewers as they added to strong pitching arms in Zack Grienke and Shawn Marcum coupled with Prince Fielder’s new deal makes them a formidable team for 2011.
Atlanta Braves could easily take any other division but they are in the East and secure the Wild Card spot. This is a very good team that will win many game with Jason Heyward, a 5 tool player, and Brian McCann holding a bat and look for a resurgence of Chipper Jones to compliment them. In the rotation they have Jair Jurrijens, Derek Lowe, along with Minor and Hanson.
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As I follow all of the Spring Training games I am amused at the number of fans that are so serious about the outcome of a Spring Training game. I don’t get excited until the last week. That is why my attendance in Florida will be during the final week to see all the players that make the Opening Day roster.
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Updated 2011 MLB Standings Projection
Here is my updated (for March) estimated standings for the end of 2011. You can see two things from the February posting. I have moved the Cardinals from first to third with the loss of Wainwright and the light injuries to 36 year old Chris Carpenter. Coupled with reserve Nick Punto and Mitchell Boggs having issues, this doesn’t bode well for them. I move the Brewers into first place due to their pitching staff. Let me know where I have really missed it on these projections!
American League East
Red Sox 97 65
Yankees 93 69
Rays 84 78
Blue Jays 77 85
Orioles 75 87
American League Central
Twins 88 77
White Sox 83 79
Tigers 81 81
Royals 68 92
Indians 65 96
American League West
Rangers 92 70
Angels 86 76
Athletics 79 83
Mariners 70 92
National League East
Phillies 95 67
Braves 90 75
Mets 80 82
Nationals 76 85
Marlins 72 88
National League Central
Brewers 90 73
Reds 88 75
Cardinals 84 77
Cubs 76 86
Astros 68 94
Pirates 67 95
National League West
Rockies 90 75
Giants 87 78
Dodgers 82 82
Padres 81 83
Diamondbacks 68 94
Baseball and Poetry Have Gone Steady for Years
Poetry has existed since man has recorded their activities. Poetry and Baseball have hooked up since Abner Doubleday got this invention thing right. Let’s examine some of my personal baseball poetry and then I will share a link for an extensive list of poems related to baseball.
Being a Cardinals fan I suppose it is only fitting that a few of my favorite poems were written by the last Jack Buck. This one sums up my feeling about baseball very succinctly. It is called 365.
| When someone asks you your favorite sport And you answer Baseball in a blink There are certain qualities you must possess And you’re more attached than you think. In the frozen grip of winter I’m sure you’ll agree with me Not a day goes by without someone Talking baseball to some degree. The calendar flips on New Year’s Day The Super Bowl comes and it goes Get the other sports out of the way The green grass and the fever grows. It’s time to pack a bag and take a trip To Arizona or the Sunshine State Perhaps you can’t go, but there’s the radio So you listen-you root-you wait. They start the campaign, pomp and pageantry reign You claim the pennant on Opening Day From April till fall From the first time you played |
| 365 by Jack Buck |
… and who can forget Jack Buck being the voice of calmness after the Tragedy of September 11th with this rendition….
| Since this nation was founded under God, more than 200 years ago, We’ve been the bastion of The light which keeps the free world We do not covet the possessions of We have rushed to help other War is just not our nature…we If we are involved we shall be We’ve been challenged by a With one voice we say there’s no Everyone is saying the same thing As our fathers did before, we shall As our children will enjoy the |
| We Shall Overcome by Jack Buck |
There are tons of baseball poems. Why not take some time today and look them over. I would almost guarantee a smile will come over you face as you read some of them. Here is a good list to use.
Enjoy the day and why not hook up with MLB for some radio listening of Spring Training.
Member: United Cardinals Blogger
“Put me in Coach, I’m Ready to Play, Today”
The Cardinals begin Spring Training games in earnest today and I will be near a radio to take in all the sounds of the game. I will listen to every pitch of every inning until it is over. Yes, I am a baseball junkie!
Those that know me will say that I have some humor and I can find song lyrics for almost all occasions. Today we turn our attention to baseball songs. There has not been a ton of them written but those that we have are to be cherished. Here is a short list of some of my personal favorites.
- Centerfield – John Fogerty – This is a must to add to your playlist that will get you fired up for the game, there is no better song than John Fogerty’s American favorite Centerfield. The guitar is awesome and has a regular style beat to it that keeps you tapping your feet. Add to that the hoarse, gravel voice of Fogerty and we have a baseball classic. WANT to LISTEN to this classic while you read the rest of my blog then click here for a YouTube version.
- Load up the Bases – Whiskey Falls- Load up the Bases will add country rock music to your baseball list. This is country music by Whiskey Falls at its finest. Baseball and Country Music are just made for each other.
- The Greatest – Kenny Rogers- The Greatest is a song about a boy dreaming about being the greatest hitter of all-time. He touches everyone sense of how much baseball means in everyones life.
- Cheap Seats – Alabama - All across the United States small parks are cleaning up their stadiums and getting ready for the start of something special in their area, baseball. Sometimes we don’t care where we sit at a game, we just want to be there and take in the surroundings. This songs pays tribute to Americana.
- A Perfect Day for Baseball – Jason Siemer – The interesting aspect of this song is that it brings back the warm and fuzzy thought associated with baseball. The great weather to get you gloves out and have that first day of playing catch and hitting pepper games. We reminisce about how the weather is perfect and there is not a care in the world!
Baseball transcends politics, weather, religion and other issues of the world. Almost everyone can talk baseball and have a good time attend a game. Doesn’t matter if it is a Major League park or a Minor League diamond across America, baseball is America’s Pastime.
Later this week I will add blog about some of the greatest BASEBALL POETRY ever written.
PLAY BALL!
Ooooh that Smell, Can’t you Smell that Smell – MLB Baseball
Ooooh that smell
Can’t you smell that smell
Ooooh that smell
Those are the words from a Lynard Skynard song and they sum up my thoughts very succinctly concerning baseball and Spring Training. There is a certain feel about it. A certain mindset takes place when thinking,watching or listening to the Boys of Summer (not the band but the baseball players) come back for Spring Training.
Ahh, yes! Baseball season has finally arrived and every fan from two-years old to one hundred and two are donning their favorite team`s baseball hat and heading for the park or stadium to take in the enjoyment of the great game of baseball.
When Spring comes so does baseball Spring Training. Spring training is a time for major league teams to let rookies or new players audition for a spot on the team`s roster and let the existing players on the team practice and get ready for the upcoming season.
Spring training is held in warm climate areas such as Florida and Arizona as-well as other places. Many of the teams today have been taking part in spring training in the very same areas for many decades. A good example of this is the Los Angeles Dodgers who from 1953 ” 2008 had been holding their spring training operations at Dodgertown in Vero Beach, Florida. The Dodgers moved their spring training camp to Glendale, Arizona in 2008 due to a very lucrative offer from the newly built Camelback Ranchfacility there in Glendale, Arizona.
Spring training normally lasts around two months with the pitchers and catchers being the two positions to arrive to spring training first followed by the other players. Pitchers need to have a longer duration to get ready for the season because pitchers really have a more exhausting position to train for. After the rest of the team arrives, the practice begins.
Spring training consists of many exhibition or practice games and gives teams managers a chance to evaluate players for certain positions and to make the final cut for the team. It also gives the local community a connection with not only Major League baseball but the team itself. Many fans make it a point to travel to spring training to watch their home team practice, meet players, get autographs and sort of begin the upcoming baseball season early. Also, many college students hold their spring break at various cities that are having spring training.
The forward movement of the season of spring comes the season of baseball. The season of baseball in spring has the essence of the smell of fresh blooming flowers, freshly cut grass, and warm summer like temperatures coming with it.
(REPRINTED from HERE)
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