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Injury bug….

Is this the year the “bug” hits the Cardinals hard? Look at it and you will scratch your head.

The two top offensive players have come down with concerning injuries. Pujols has the weak back and Holliday complains about oblique problems. If those guys are down when the season begins, then we have an uphill battle going on in the NLCentral.

Josh Kinney has inflammation on his shoulder and that doesnt sound good.

I am hopeful but worried.

Are you?

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-03-07

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-28

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-21: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-14: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/ciJQCY #
  • @redsoxgirl46 You don't have to have a brain to work at #Staples. in reply to redsoxgirl46 #
  • 19 million people watched the Olympic hockey game across the continent. NBC was the winner,,selling ads on NBC and others to MSNBC #
  • The season is creeping forward. 40 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @keithlaw Adam Wainwright would put you on hold in a flash! in reply to keithlaw #
  • Tiger is being dropped as endorser by Gillette, because many of those waitresses he shagged were definitely not "the best a man can get." #
  • @dgoold Serious question: Where will Lopez play on opening day?…. and bat 2nd? My guess is SS. in reply to dgoold #
  • 36 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • If the USA can pull it out, Can we just say, this win is for OHNO. since he got jabbed out of one? #
  • In the words of the immortal Kanye West, Sidney Crosby is the BEST of ALL TIME… #
  • Now that the Olympics are over…REMEMBER CARDINAL FANS…. 36 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Awesome, I got tickets to Cincinnati for the Cardinals opener! #
  • 1 Day 16 Hours until the first Spring Training game! In the words of the immortal POP singer PINK, "Let's Get the Party Started" #

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-21

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-14: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-07: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/bDTSfH #
  • Hilarious from CubsSuckClub-only the Cubbies would do this.Leave it up to the Cubs Annual 2010 to make this mistake… http://bit.ly/cXVGin #
  • @Erika4stlcards I like the live feed cam idea at Roger Dean Stadium. I like the way you think! #
  • @RotoExperts I will take Jeter/Arod in reply to RotoExperts #
  • @GoElBirdos Bears fired the architect of Cutler trade? Do they wish they had Orton back? in reply to GoElBirdos #
  • @GoElBirdos Wrong Bears. in reply to GoElBirdos #
  • Check out the Cubs gaffe by Maple Street Press. It says Cubs Anal w/DLee head in the middle. http://bit.ly/bt55W6 Hilarious #
  • So Felipe Lopez could see his 5th team in 3 years? .. Might need to back away very slowly, STL. seems to be malignant. #
  • New post! Spring Questions:  
    -Sorry about the lack of activity recently.  A busy stretch for me personally has co… http://bit.ly/cND2h1 #
  • @dgoold fascinating to hear Pujols talk hitting…. This is one area Mac has to only listen. in reply to dgoold #
  • 43 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-14

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-07: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-31: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/ag5CEe #
  • about 1,300 hours till Opening Day at MLB. #mlb #
  • @Erika4stlcards I am looking forward to #mlbtv for this year. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • Watching the show #castle and they will have Joe Torre on w/ a story about a star player getting killed. #
  • Now that Schumaker is under contract, how important will Lugo be this year? Is he the next super sub that TLR will get uber-at-bats? #
  • @GoElBirdos Tell TLR that. He has used some interesting people in the past for his "main" utility guy. in reply to GoElBirdos #
  • @JoeStrauss If Cards win, fans won't care about lack of African Americans players. That is what they are all about. in reply to JoeStrauss #
  • 55 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • The first pitch of the 2010 MiLB season will take place in Syracuse, N.Y. at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 8. #
  • Atlanta OF'er Jason Heyward listed as the No. 1 player in the Minor Leagues..Will he be on MLB roster? #MiLB #Braves #
  • Please Mo, just say no to the recently released Willy Taveras. #stlcards #
  • @FishSTL Just remember that 2 teams gave up on him in the last month. in reply to FishSTL #
  • What's this all about at this time of year? #globedemocrat reports Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan undergoes wrist surgery #
  • What's this all about? Just got home and got the news. Brendan Ryan had surgery? NOW? Why do they wait? Now guess Lopez is looking to sign? #
  • @Erika4stlcards I realize Glaus had completely diff surgery than BR, but the same concerns come across my mind. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • lots of $$4 for a Wang..#Nats will guarantee Wang 2 million, and he can more than double that in incentives. #
  • So to rehash a story from today w/Brendan Ryan having wrist surgery… I ask..So he had to wait one week before the start of ST to do this? #
  • Jim Hendry's worst moves http://bit.ly/cCD8Fj Agree or not? #
  • With Boras being fired by Lopez… was it basically dollars or was it clubhouse issues that have kept Felipe Lopez from being signed? #
  • 51 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Reds GM Walt Jocketty said that the duo's (OCabrera and AMiles) playoff experience was a factor in their acquisition, Got there first Walt. #
  • 50 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • 2 days 19 hrs til Pitchers and Catchers report acc to #stlcards website. #
  • “People ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” #
  • —Rogers Hornsby #

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-07

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-31: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-24: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/akEdBA #
  • @JohnMarecek Buster_ESPN Am told by source close to the Twins that the report of a preliminary 10-year agreement with Mauer is not accurate. in reply to JohnMarecek #
  • 63 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @alysonfooter Is Michael Bourn the most media savvy?It always appears MB is always doing something. By design or a natural? in reply to alysonfooter #
  • @redsoxgirl46 Don't worry Westmoreland is just your fan. in reply to redsoxgirl46 #
  • @Secret_Sauce29 to me the most imp part of a draft starts after about the 4th-5th rd. Usually cant go too wrong early. in reply to Secret_Sauce29 #
  • @MtnMdMarathon I am planning MLBTv also…. do u hook to tv w/HDMI cable? Is quality good? Did you buy the mosaic with more than 1 screen? #
  • @mattholliday7 your followers on Twitter will follow your every tweet…. everything you say will be microscoped! in reply to mattholliday7 #
  • @mattholliday7 Parenthood is def. priceless. in reply to mattholliday7 #
  • Mo legislature wants to punish KC Chiefs and STL Rams for any blackouts http://bit.ly/cK6OnK //// maybe they should punish bad football! #
  • For those of you in COLD and SNOW , I offer this! 58 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Saw this…Cards are looking for a plyr for 3rd,1st, OF w/power and ave..Only thing left is FLopez…are they playing bluff w/ea other? #
  • I have some doubts about REDS– signed a declining Cabrera-block promising young SS in Paul Janish, and then why get Aaron Miles? #
  • New post! Open Forum!: Going to try something a little bit different today-Any Cardinal or baseball related questi… http://bit.ly/ak1AFU #

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-31

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-24: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-17: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/5uMg8V #
  • 70 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @CubsSuckClub 23 days until pitchers and catchers report! #stlcards in reply to CubsSuckClub #
  • @Erika4stlcards Be sure to check out CubsSuckClub on the web. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • Is Park Place in Chicago? RT @mlbtraderumors: Cubs, Rays After Park http://bit.ly/5mCgAE #mlb #
  • 69 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Positively too much.-RT @Secret_Sauce29: 10 mil for sheets seems like alot for the a's, but beane will likely flip him during the season #
  • @MatthewHLeach Any idea when single game tickets go on sale? I am hoping to go to Cincy for Opener. in reply to MatthewHLeach #
  • @nyp_joelsherman best lefty hitter Cubs have is Carlos Zambrano. in reply to nyp_joelsherman #
  • Any idea what the major league salary average is nowadays? #
  • Never hurts to have another lefthander. #
  • @Secret_Sauce29 How can you say with assurance that Garcia is better than Hill. What has Garcia accomplished that Hill has not? in reply to Secret_Sauce29 #
  • 69 Days till the OPENER #
  • New post! The Rotation, Third Base, and Other Happenings:  
     
     

     

    Some snippets from around Cardinal nation and … http://bit.ly/9dCNWl #

  • Rams RB Jackson accused of beating up pregnant girlfriend | WHAT A MAN! #
  • @TonyLaRussa Shouldn't you also create competition in ST or they are lax/complacent? in reply to TonyLaRussa #
  • @TonyLaRussa I guess my "real" question is how many roster spots don't need competition? i.e AP, MH and Yadi…others? in reply to TonyLaRussa #
  • Anyone use #mlbtv for their computer last year? How was it? #
  • @LauraSchulte I can watch the Cards every game on my cable. So I believe it might be what I purchase… a bit expensive #mlbtv in reply to LauraSchulte #
  • @LauraSchulte i do plan on watching TONS of other games, makes good fodder for my blog. Thanks. in reply to LauraSchulte #
  • @Erika4stlcards i can watch ALL the games for Cards on CABLE. Just wanting to watch the other teams. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • @Erika4stlcards editing T-ball? Trying to make them look better for the scouts? :) in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • 66 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Do any of the "baseball officials" ever talk about and doing something about how the divisions in MLB are not equal. That is unfair adv. #
  • the Reds have quietly put together a very nice looking team going into the 2010 season. #
  • New post! PECOTA!:  
    It’s late January, which can only mean one thing: it’s time for Baseball Prospectus to releas… http://bit.ly/9Vgamy #
  • Does Mora make sense for Rockies? With Tulo, Barmes and Stewart around the bases it seems they didn't need him badly. #
  • 64 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @JohnMarecek I bet Beyonce following Taylor Swift acceptance was not an accident. in reply to JohnMarecek #
  • Watching the Ryan Seacrest Red Carpet Show made me appreciate buying my clothes at WalMart. #
  • She's not called PINK for nothing!!!! #
  • @JohnMarecek As I said earlier… now we know why they call her PINK. in reply to JohnMarecek #

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The Rotation, Third Base, and Other Happenings

Joe Crede Dive

Some snippets from around Cardinal nation and the rest of the league:

-Rich Hill was signed as a non-roster invitee-It’s hard not to like moves like this, as there cost is basically free in terms of baseball dollars and players in this position traditionally have something to prove. Hill was once a young, talented, left-handed starter who struck out around 8.5 batters per nine while walking under 3, but has fallen off of a cliff the past couple of seasons. While suffering through physical and mechanical issues in 2008 and 2009 Hill never regained his 2007 form, but Hill and the Cardinals swear he is healthy and ready to go at the start of spring. For what it’s worth (probably little), the Chone projection system has Hill pegged at a 4.78 ERA, a 4.82 FIP, 96 innings pitched, and to be worth 0.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2010. Hill will have to earn a spot on the big league club this spring, but if Hill can resemble anything close to his 3.1 WAR form of a couple years ago John Mozeliak will have a real bargain on his hands.

-The signing of Rich Hill looks to end the pursuit of John Smoltz, despite his reported preference to return-I have to admit I was hoping for a Cardinals-Smoltz reunion in 2010, but with Tony LaRussa wanting the remaining “bullet” to be used on a position player that can play third, Smoltz was priced out of the Cardinal budget. Smoltz would have been a nice fit, as he would give the club some flexibility in the late innings or in the back end of the rotation. The extra depth that Smoltz provides would have been nice, but typically there is pitching, F.A.T., or free available talent, that is out there during the season. Two examples of this in 2009 would be Smoltz, who the Cardinals signed after he was released by the Red Sox and our very own Brad Penny, who was also released by Boston and picked up by the Giants.

-Joe Strauss suggested today that Felipe Lopez might be out of the price range as well, with Joe Crede being a potential player of interest. Crede likely wouldn’t command much guaranteed money, as back problems have plagued him the past several seasons. Still, Crede has a tremendous glove at third base and has a little pop in his bat. Crede was worth 1.9 WAR in just 90 games with the Twins in 2009, and would represent some competition/insurance for David Freese. This is a signing that would make sense for the Cardinals, as the Cardinals wouldn’t likely be on the hook for a lot of guaranteed cash, would have some insurance for Freese, and could still give Freese ample playing time when giving Crede a rest when his back inevitably flares up. Overall Chone expects Freese to have a higher OPS -.777 to .733, but Crede to have the superior glove-5 runs above average to 0.
-The Cubs signed Xavier Nady, who I liked as a potential Matt Holliday replacement back in November. Nady looks to fill the hole created when Reed Johnson became a free agent, and figures to be a nice pickup for Chicago. Look for Nady to platoon with Kosuke Fukudome most of the time, but he also represents insurance in case Alfonso Soriano’s injuries continue to hamper his effectiveness.

-Ben Sheets signed with the A’s-Cardinal fans know Sheets well from his tenure in Milwaukee, and that when he is healthy is a very good pitcher. Sheets was worth 4.4 WAR in his last healthy season of 2008, and cashed in on that potential by inking a one year deal that will pay him 10 million plus in 2010. That may seem like a lot of money from a team like the A’s, but Billy Beane had the cash to spend after missing out on Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre, and Aroldis Chapman this winter. Even if Sheets completely fails, it’s only a one year deal, so it’s not as if this is a potentially crippling contract for the A’s to take on. If Sheets is healthy however, Oakland made a very nice signing. If they are in contention, Beane can hold on to Sheets for a playoff run, but if the A’s fall out of contention, Beane can trade Sheets for prospects. This is what Beane did with Matt Holliday last year, and while Sheets likely won’t command the return that Holliday did, Beane still has a nice potential asset on his hands. Personally I think Beane will trade Sheets if he is having a good year and Oakland isn‘t on the cusp of winning the division. Assuming the economic climate in free agency is similar next year, and Sheets is a type A free agent, the likelihood of Sheets getting a multi-year deal with his medical history is slim. If Sheets is unlikely to get a multi-year deal somewhere, he would be more likely to accept arbitration, where he would receive an increase from his 2010 salary, a risk that the A’s would likely be better off not taking. This provides more incentive for General Manager Billy Beane to move Sheets at the first sign of the A’s falling out of the race.

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-24

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-17: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-10: Former long-time… http://bit.ly/8i7Elx #
  • @JoeStrauss Can u tell me if the JimEd comment on wanting to return was serious or in jest? in reply to JoeStrauss #
  • RT @MatthewHLeach: Gloomy Monday morning. http://twitpic.com/ynuah YES, but 77 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @jaysonst This morning on ESPN radio a study said in a clock hr.. football has an average of 11 minutes of play action. in reply to jaysonst #
  • When we going to hear about the Felipe Lopez signing? I see it as imminent. TLR wants 3B who plays OF. That narrows it down. #
  • @Secret_Sauce29 I believe that is their "bullet" they plan on using. in reply to Secret_Sauce29 #
  • @Secret_Sauce29 I think the Brewers arms are likely to break down and then they are back of the pack again. in reply to Secret_Sauce29 #
  • Let's get the BAND back together. Edmonds and Preston Wilson both want to play again. Mac as coach. Who can we get to makeup the quartet? #
  • I see @Secret_Sauce29 has already posted an answer to the BAND question. Good one.. he says Scott Spiezio! #
  • @Secret_Sauce29 Technicality. in reply to Secret_Sauce29 #
  • 75 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Lehigh Valley GM Kurt Landes. "We're the IronPigs — and no team exhibits more zeal to make their fans squeal," he said. gotta love MILB. #
  • 72 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • New post! Rounding Out the Roster: The Bench:  
                    There has been a lot talk recently of what the Ca… http://bit.ly/8Bk8Yv #
  • @redsoxgirl46 yes, the show is quite depressing. in reply to redsoxgirl46 #

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Rounding Out the Roster: The Bench

Jon Jay just might be the lefty hitting outfield backup many fans are calling for.

Jon Jay just might be the lefty hitting outfield backup many fans are calling for.

 

                There has been a lot talk recently of what the Cardinals should do for their bench, whether it’s clamoring for a left-handed hitting outfielder or a backup infielder. In a previous post, I suggested that the Cardinals go after an additional starter for depth in the rotation. If John Mozeliak does use his remaining “bullet” on pitching, I figured it would be worthwhile to examine the proposed bench as it stands today, using projected stats from the Chone system.

-Julio Lugo-Lugo was acquired from the Red Sox for Chris Duncan last July, and will cost the league minimum in 2010. Lugo, a right-handed bat, offers a little pop in his bat but is a minus defender at both second base and shortstop. Chone expects Lugo to decline significantly at the plate in 2010, going from an on-base percentage and OPS (on-base + slugging) of .352 and .756 in 2009 to .332 and .687 in 2010. The downward trend in Lugo’s offense is coming from his batting average on balls in play, or BABIP for short. In 2009 Lugo hit .330 on balls in play, which is 13 points above his career average. Chone expects Lugo’s BABIP to return to closer to his career level in 2010, which would explain the projected drop in offense. That would seem to make sense, but Lugo’s BABIP wasn’t high in 2009 because of dumb luck, but because Lugo hit 4% more line drives in 2009. The more line drives a batter hits, the more balls in play that turn into hits, so it’s easy to see how Lugo turned in such a high BABIP in 2009. If Lugo did become a better hitter in 2009, it would mean that his 2010 projected Chone numbers would be low, and that Cardinal fans should look at his Chone projection at the low end of the scale for Lugo’s offense next season. Defensively Lugo projects to be 6 runs below average, which would make Lugo 0.4 wins above replacement, or WAR, a number that could be higher if Lugo keeps his offensive improvements from a year ago.

-Allen Craig-I have already written extensively about Craig, but for a short recap Craig is a right-handed hitter who can play both left field and third. Craig’s value comes in his bat, as Chone projects him to have a .282/.338/.459 line for a .797 OPS. Craig is a rookie, and will also play for the league minimum in 2010. Overall Chone expects Craig to be worth 1.7 WAR in 461 plate appearances.

-John Jay-Jay is a left handed hitting outfielder who often gets overlooked because he doesn’t put up eye popping numbers. Chone projects Jay to have a .277/.333/.401 line in 2010 for a .734 OPS in roughly 400 at bats. Jay is also fairly decent runner, stealing 20 bases at Memphis in 2009. Most of Jay’s value lies in his glove, as Chone projects him to be worth 10 runs defensively in 2010. Combing near league average offense with excellent outfield defense means Jay would be worth 1.7 WAR in 2010, or a full win over what Cardinal hero Jim Edmonds projects to be.

-Jason LaRue-LaRue enters his third season as the backup to catcher Yadier Molina. Chone doesn’t think that LaRue will be much of an offensive threat this year, projecting him to post a .205/.277/.316 line for a .593 OPS in just over 100 ab’s. Overall Chone predicts that LaRue will be 0.7 win player in 2010, which is just fine for a backup catcher.

-Ruben Gotay-Rounding out the bench is the switch hitting Ruben Gotay. Gotay is a second basemen by trade but will likely play all around the diamond if he is able to make the 25 man roster. In 344 plate appearances in 2010, Chone projects Gotay to hit .248/.358/.374 line for a .732 OPS. The most interesting thing about Gotay’s line is his projected 14% walk rate, which would be a welcome addition to an otherwise impatient bench. Chone sees Gotay as a 1.2 WAR player in 2010, which would be fine production from a non-roster invitee.

                As it stands today the Cardinal bench looks to be a solid, yet unspectacular one. Each player has his strengths and weaknesses, and everyone but LaRue offers the ability to play multiple positions. That kind of versatility is a must for any club that Tony LaRussa manages. Jay offers excellent outfield defense, decent speed, but little pop. Craig can slug the ball, but doesn’t walk very much and is a work in progress defensively. Gotay is a switch hitter and offers good plate discipline, but likely won’t play at his primary position very often. Lugo offers some speed as well, but is a minus defender, and LaRue is a decent backup catcher. Each of these players should be fine in a part-time role, but only Craig figures to be a worthwhile everyday option if someone were to get injured. When you consider this group to the 2009 Cardinal bench, the 2010 bunch should be a nice upgrade. Duncan, Thurston, K. Greene, and Ankiel didn’t exactly give the Cardinals good production in 2009, so as long as everyone stays healthy this 2010 bench has a chance to make valuable contributions to the roster.

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