It means a good start to the season. I has shown the Cardinals on the first round of the rotation had good starters to throw out there. Probably the most frustrating was Lohse. Maybe it was the slowness he used but I had problems watching him pitch. Garcia got my attention with his ability to get hitters out and keep the ball mostly out of the air and in the park. Carp and Waino are just good so I guess they don’t get my praises this early in the season. Penny was a delightful surprise with his outing.

It means Rasmus has drawn a lot of attention with his new found ability to take walks. I love that effortless swing. Don’t hurt me when i say it reminds me of JD Drew and his swing.

It means Yadier Molina has stated en fuego with 7 RBI’s so far. It means the opposing pitchers have to pitch to the complete lineup right now (not just Pujols, holliday or Ludwick) as none have shown to be an easy out.

It means we might be a bit concerned about the bullpen if anything but they really only blew one game so that is short-sighted…. we will dismiss that for now.

….. and it means we are in first place in the NL Central!

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It is only two games that I am drawing these observations from and we all know that is a small sample size.

I like Rasmus in the 5 hole. He gets a chance to drive in runs. He seems so effortless in his swing and he is seeing the ball well and taking some walks. All good things. Also, he can run from the 5th spot. good place for him.

David Freese has not lived up to his name. He has stayed calm and by all accounts he is confident in his abilities. Definately can make some connection to the baseball.

Brenden Ryan has range. No surprise he can get to many balls in the hole and up the middle. I am not crazy about his flip to first base but if it works for him, it works for me. Glad he is back.

Ryan Franklin- he seems so hittable. Glad to see Ryan Ludwick get the save in game two. A few grabs on hard hit balls made all the difference in the world.

—————-

Now let’s see what Brad Penny can do for us.

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Wow, now that was fun. It was a six hour drive but overall it was worth it. I want to share a few things I noticed from this trip.

Great American Ballpark is a very nice and clean place to see a game. The site lines were all good, it was felt like a wide open stadium with some very nice views of the river from my seat. The people working were extremely friendly to someone wearing a Cardinal shirt and hat.  Great place to see a game, just make sure you skip ordering a bratwurst. I am not too keen on a white brat.

Te pre-game in comparison to what I have seen in St Louis was weak. They had a very short parade downtown with people gathered at Findlay Market. No real hype or giveaways, just food lines. At game time they had the introductions of the players from both teams and a fly over by four jets. Weak sauce as far as I was concerned.

The game.

Reds fans were visibly excited that Aaron Harang struck out the first two batters to start the game. I would be too, he has lost 31 games in the last 2 years. then Albert went deep. Let me interject here that in batting practice the ball on many bats seemed to jump out of there. Albert is a man.

Rasmus looks so effortless right now in his swing. His looong home run was a thing of beauty. Then later he made a very nice home run robbing catch of Scott Rolen’s shot. Cards may go as Colby goes this year. If he is good or very good, the Cards are in for a treat.

David Freese is, in my opinion, not going to cut it defensively. He is going to cost us some games this year. His bat is sound, his defensive footwork is questionable.

Carpenter- He just battles. I have no concerns at this time about him.

Motte- Jason throws the same pitch at the same speed from the same arm angle. This is not going to cut the mustard for a full season. He throws 95-95 MPH but you know where it will be.

Holliday- How many sunflower seed packages will he go through this year? We sat in left field bleachers and he poured in his mouth almost every 2-3 pitches. Now if this is all I can find wrong with Matt, this is a good thing.

Franklin- i am worried. He doesn’t appear sharp and able to just get people out on a regular basis.

Overall, we looked good after one game. I have generated some excitement for the upcoming year. This should be fun.

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After watching and reading this is my guess.
=======================================
NL EAST
1. Phils
2. ATL
3. FLA
4. METS (when will this mediocrity end in NY?)
5. WASH (still not good)

NL CENTRAL
1. STL
2. CUBS (w/o injuries could move up)

3. REDS (good nucleus)

4. MIL

5. ASTROS (getting old)

6 PIRATES (forever young and inexperience but no losing season this yr.)

NL WEST
1. Rockies
2. Giants (going to surprise this yr)
3. Dodgers
4. Padres (move out of last place)
5. D-Backs (not gonna be good)

WILD CARD: Cubs or Braves? Bobby Cox gets the nod in his final year.

MVP: Pujols (look for Tulowitzki and Howard to push him)
CY: Halladay (I want to put Ricky Nolasco here)
Rookie: Jason Heyward
MGR: Bobby Cox
HR Leader: Ryan Howard

Phils back to World Series.
=============================================
AL EAST
1. NYY
2. Boston
3. Tampa Bay (could sneak into 2nd)
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto

AL CENTRAL
1. White Sox (Can Ozzie stay quiet long enough to see them through?)
2. Twins (I like this team)
3. Tigers
4. Cleveland (going to be better)
5. KC

AL WEST
1. Angels
2. Mariners (much improved)
3. Texas
4. Oakland A’s (the mighty have fallen)

WILD CARD: Boston or Twins? Got to go w/Boston.

MVP: Alex Rodriquez
CY: King Felix Hernandez
Rookie of year: Brian Matusz, Balt
MGR: Gardenhire (I know I picked them 2nd)
Comeback: Peavy (good get for Pale Hose)
HR Leader: AROD

=================================================

Yankees advance to World Series

2010 Champs: Philadelphia Phillies

What do you think?

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Is this the year the “bug” hits the Cardinals hard? Look at it and you will scratch your head.

The two top offensive players have come down with concerning injuries. Pujols has the weak back and Holliday complains about oblique problems. If those guys are down when the season begins, then we have an uphill battle going on in the NLCentral.

Josh Kinney has inflammation on his shoulder and that doesnt sound good.

I am hopeful but worried.

Are you?

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Some snippets from around Cardinal nation and the rest of the league:

-Rich Hill was signed as a non-roster invitee-It’s hard not to like moves like this, as there cost is basically free in terms of baseball dollars and players in this position traditionally have something to prove. Hill was once a young, talented, left-handed starter who struck out around 8.5 batters per nine while walking under 3, but has fallen off of a cliff the past couple of seasons. While suffering through physical and mechanical issues in 2008 and 2009 Hill never regained his 2007 form, but Hill and the Cardinals swear he is healthy and ready to go at the start of spring. For what it’s worth (probably little), the Chone projection system has Hill pegged at a 4.78 ERA, a 4.82 FIP, 96 innings pitched, and to be worth 0.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2010. Hill will have to earn a spot on the big league club this spring, but if Hill can resemble anything close to his 3.1 WAR form of a couple years ago John Mozeliak will have a real bargain on his hands.

-The signing of Rich Hill looks to end the pursuit of John Smoltz, despite his reported preference to return-I have to admit I was hoping for a Cardinals-Smoltz reunion in 2010, but with Tony LaRussa wanting the remaining “bullet” to be used on a position player that can play third, Smoltz was priced out of the Cardinal budget. Smoltz would have been a nice fit, as he would give the club some flexibility in the late innings or in the back end of the rotation. The extra depth that Smoltz provides would have been nice, but typically there is pitching, F.A.T., or free available talent, that is out there during the season. Two examples of this in 2009 would be Smoltz, who the Cardinals signed after he was released by the Red Sox and our very own Brad Penny, who was also released by Boston and picked up by the Giants.

-Joe Strauss suggested today that Felipe Lopez might be out of the price range as well, with Joe Crede being a potential player of interest. Crede likely wouldn’t command much guaranteed money, as back problems have plagued him the past several seasons. Still, Crede has a tremendous glove at third base and has a little pop in his bat. Crede was worth 1.9 WAR in just 90 games with the Twins in 2009, and would represent some competition/insurance for David Freese. This is a signing that would make sense for the Cardinals, as the Cardinals wouldn’t likely be on the hook for a lot of guaranteed cash, would have some insurance for Freese, and could still give Freese ample playing time when giving Crede a rest when his back inevitably flares up. Overall Chone expects Freese to have a higher OPS -.777 to .733, but Crede to have the superior glove-5 runs above average to 0.
-The Cubs signed Xavier Nady, who I liked as a potential Matt Holliday replacement back in November. Nady looks to fill the hole created when Reed Johnson became a free agent, and figures to be a nice pickup for Chicago. Look for Nady to platoon with Kosuke Fukudome most of the time, but he also represents insurance in case Alfonso Soriano’s injuries continue to hamper his effectiveness.

-Ben Sheets signed with the A’s-Cardinal fans know Sheets well from his tenure in Milwaukee, and that when he is healthy is a very good pitcher. Sheets was worth 4.4 WAR in his last healthy season of 2008, and cashed in on that potential by inking a one year deal that will pay him 10 million plus in 2010. That may seem like a lot of money from a team like the A’s, but Billy Beane had the cash to spend after missing out on Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre, and Aroldis Chapman this winter. Even if Sheets completely fails, it’s only a one year deal, so it’s not as if this is a potentially crippling contract for the A’s to take on. If Sheets is healthy however, Oakland made a very nice signing. If they are in contention, Beane can hold on to Sheets for a playoff run, but if the A’s fall out of contention, Beane can trade Sheets for prospects. This is what Beane did with Matt Holliday last year, and while Sheets likely won’t command the return that Holliday did, Beane still has a nice potential asset on his hands. Personally I think Beane will trade Sheets if he is having a good year and Oakland isn‘t on the cusp of winning the division. Assuming the economic climate in free agency is similar next year, and Sheets is a type A free agent, the likelihood of Sheets getting a multi-year deal with his medical history is slim. If Sheets is unlikely to get a multi-year deal somewhere, he would be more likely to accept arbitration, where he would receive an increase from his 2010 salary, a risk that the A’s would likely be better off not taking. This provides more incentive for General Manager Billy Beane to move Sheets at the first sign of the A’s falling out of the race.

4 Comments »

Jon Jay just might be the lefty hitting outfield backup many fans are calling for.

                There has been a lot talk recently of what the Cardinals should do for their bench, whether it’s clamoring for a left-handed hitting outfielder or a backup infielder. In a previous post, I suggested that the Cardinals go after an additional starter for depth in the rotation. If John Mozeliak does use his remaining “bullet” on pitching, I figured it would be worthwhile to examine the proposed bench as it stands today, using projected stats from the Chone system.

-Julio Lugo-Lugo was acquired from the Red Sox for Chris Duncan last July, and will cost the league minimum in 2010. Lugo, a right-handed bat, offers a little pop in his bat but is a minus defender at both second base and shortstop. Chone expects Lugo to decline significantly at the plate in 2010, going from an on-base percentage and OPS (on-base + slugging) of .352 and .756 in 2009 to .332 and .687 in 2010. The downward trend in Lugo’s offense is coming from his batting average on balls in play, or BABIP for short. In 2009 Lugo hit .330 on balls in play, which is 13 points above his career average. Chone expects Lugo’s BABIP to return to closer to his career level in 2010, which would explain the projected drop in offense. That would seem to make sense, but Lugo’s BABIP wasn’t high in 2009 because of dumb luck, but because Lugo hit 4% more line drives in 2009. The more line drives a batter hits, the more balls in play that turn into hits, so it’s easy to see how Lugo turned in such a high BABIP in 2009. If Lugo did become a better hitter in 2009, it would mean that his 2010 projected Chone numbers would be low, and that Cardinal fans should look at his Chone projection at the low end of the scale for Lugo’s offense next season. Defensively Lugo projects to be 6 runs below average, which would make Lugo 0.4 wins above replacement, or WAR, a number that could be higher if Lugo keeps his offensive improvements from a year ago.

-Allen Craig-I have already written extensively about Craig, but for a short recap Craig is a right-handed hitter who can play both left field and third. Craig’s value comes in his bat, as Chone projects him to have a .282/.338/.459 line for a .797 OPS. Craig is a rookie, and will also play for the league minimum in 2010. Overall Chone expects Craig to be worth 1.7 WAR in 461 plate appearances.

-John Jay-Jay is a left handed hitting outfielder who often gets overlooked because he doesn’t put up eye popping numbers. Chone projects Jay to have a .277/.333/.401 line in 2010 for a .734 OPS in roughly 400 at bats. Jay is also fairly decent runner, stealing 20 bases at Memphis in 2009. Most of Jay’s value lies in his glove, as Chone projects him to be worth 10 runs defensively in 2010. Combing near league average offense with excellent outfield defense means Jay would be worth 1.7 WAR in 2010, or a full win over what Cardinal hero Jim Edmonds projects to be.

-Jason LaRue-LaRue enters his third season as the backup to catcher Yadier Molina. Chone doesn’t think that LaRue will be much of an offensive threat this year, projecting him to post a .205/.277/.316 line for a .593 OPS in just over 100 ab’s. Overall Chone predicts that LaRue will be 0.7 win player in 2010, which is just fine for a backup catcher.

-Ruben Gotay-Rounding out the bench is the switch hitting Ruben Gotay. Gotay is a second basemen by trade but will likely play all around the diamond if he is able to make the 25 man roster. In 344 plate appearances in 2010, Chone projects Gotay to hit .248/.358/.374 line for a .732 OPS. The most interesting thing about Gotay’s line is his projected 14% walk rate, which would be a welcome addition to an otherwise impatient bench. Chone sees Gotay as a 1.2 WAR player in 2010, which would be fine production from a non-roster invitee.

                As it stands today the Cardinal bench looks to be a solid, yet unspectacular one. Each player has his strengths and weaknesses, and everyone but LaRue offers the ability to play multiple positions. That kind of versatility is a must for any club that Tony LaRussa manages. Jay offers excellent outfield defense, decent speed, but little pop. Craig can slug the ball, but doesn’t walk very much and is a work in progress defensively. Gotay is a switch hitter and offers good plate discipline, but likely won’t play at his primary position very often. Lugo offers some speed as well, but is a minus defender, and LaRue is a decent backup catcher. Each of these players should be fine in a part-time role, but only Craig figures to be a worthwhile everyday option if someone were to get injured. When you consider this group to the 2009 Cardinal bench, the 2010 bunch should be a nice upgrade. Duncan, Thurston, K. Greene, and Ankiel didn’t exactly give the Cardinals good production in 2009, so as long as everyone stays healthy this 2010 bench has a chance to make valuable contributions to the roster.

8 Comments »

Scott Boras has to wonder why more teams aren't showing interest in Matt Holliday.

                After several weeks of inactivity, the past couple of days have brought some clarity into what’s going to happen with the Cardinals this off-season. Mark Derosa signed with the Giants, Jason Bay went to the Mets, and with the Yankees and Red Sox likely out of the running for Matt Holliday, it appears that the Cardinals are the most serious bidder for the prized left fielder. Everything that has happened this off-season has worked in the Cardinals favor in their attempt to re-sign Holliday. The Angels and Giants declared him too expensive, Boston took the offer they had for Holliday and gave it to John Lackey to go along with signing Mike Cameron, the Mets signed Jason Bay, and the Yankees don’t have any interest in Scott Boras’s top client. Sure a team like the Orioles could stay in the bidding, but even they don’t like the price of Holliday and there’s been no indication that Holliday would even want to play there. Just because it looks like the Cardinals are the most serious bidder for Holliday doesn’t mean this will be a quick resolution, however, as Scott Boras continues to play the waiting game. Buster Olney tweeted yesterday that Boras was “doubling back” to teams to try to garner more interest in his client, but if teams passed on Holliday the first time around, it’s unlikely that they would enter the sweepstakes now. Mozeliak appears to be eying a mid-January conclusion of the Holliday saga, stating “ideally you know what team you have by the middle of January” in a p-d article. In that same article, Goold states again how the Cardinals have interest in another one of Scott Boras’s clients, Felipe Lopez. I think Lopez would be a solid addition, as he would add some depth and versatility to the roster (for a more detailed take on Lopez, click here). Lopez might not be much of an upgrade over David Freese at third, but I don’t think it hurts to have depth on the roster, as long as it’s at a reasonable price. Lopez is a switch hitter that LaRussa could bat in the two-hole in front of Pujols, which would mean Colby Rasmus could bat lower in the lineup, perhaps utilizing his base-stealing ability more. Overall it is shaping up to be a fine off-season for the Cardinals, and it appears as if John Mozeliak’s plan is working to perfection. Scott Boras is playing the waiting game now, but with each passing day both Holliday and the Cardinals will want a resolution to this process. For now Cardinal fans can only hope no other “mystery teams” emerge and Mozeliak doesn’t grow impatient and bid against himself for Holliday.

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Brian Cashman hasn't said much about Matt Holliday this off-season.

                Throughout the off-season, Cardinal fans have been worried about one team in particular getting involved in the Matt Holliday sweepstakes: the Yankees. Those concerns were quieted some when the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson in a three-team trade, but with the Melky Cabrera (plus prospects) for Javy Vasquez deal going down, there is an opening in left field once again for the Bombers. General Manager Brian Cashman has insisted that any potential signing for left field won’t be a big ticket item, but similar things were said last year before the Yankees swooped in at the eleventh hour and grabbed Mark Texeira away from the Red Sox and Angels. This is why the Yankees can be considered the “sleeping dog” in these Holliday negotiations, as the threat of them suddenly giving Boras an offer he desires exists. Derrick Goold and others seem to think that the Yankees will be a bigger threat to Mark Derosa than they will be to sign Holliday, and I agree 100%. Here’s why:

-People laugh when the Yankees say they are going to have a “budget conscious” off-season, but in their own Yankee-way they are. Although they have traded for a multi-year (albeit team friendly) contract in Curtis Granderson, the rest of the Yankee off-season additions-Andy Pettitte, Nick Johnson, and Javy Vasquez will all be free agents next off-season. The Yankee version of being “budget conscious” doesn’t involve not spending money, it involves not handing out huge multi-year deals, such as the one Matt Holliday would command. This is why the Yankees are more likely to bring back Johnny Damon or sign Mark Derosa, because of the shorter commitments they will require.

-The luxury tax. Yes the Yankees play with monopoly money, but even they would like to keep their payroll for 2010 around $200 million (it’s currently at $204 +). If the Yankees were to sign Matt Holliday at $18 million per year, which would be reasonable considering the Yankees don’t back-load their contracts as much as teams like the Cardinals, with the 40% luxury tax the money they would actually be paying to sign Matt Holliday is $25.2 million, which would put the Yankees payroll around $230 million! That would be an enormous number even for the Yankees, and I just don’t see them paying Matt Holliday $25 million per season.

                In conclusion, the Yankees very well could sign Matt Holliday, but that seems very unlikely at this point. Signing Matt Holliday would go against what the Yankees want to do with their payroll, which is keep it around $200 million and not give out huge multi-year deals. This isn’t what Scott Boras is wanting to hear, but it is looking like the Cardinals will have the best offer for Holliday this off-season.

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Brad Penny should be a solid middle of the rotation starter for the Cardinals.

                With the Winter Meetings in full swing there has been plenty of buzz surrounding Cardinal Nation. The club addressed its rotation with the signing of Brad Penny, but the bigger news is still to come. John Mozeliak and the Cardinals have still not decided what direction to go in regarding the Matt Holliday situation, but will need to do so soon. If Holliday is not retained, Mozeliak will look to upgrade the offense at third base, left field, or both while also looking into adding another starting pitcher, possibly one of the rehabbing pitchers that I wrote about. Another consideration is adding a bench bat, and Ryan Church is a name that apparently is getting some consideration. As you can see it has been a very busy couple of days, and with a day and a half still left at the Winter Meetings there still may be time for more fireworks for the Cardinals.

                I thought John Mozeliak did a good job in grabbing Brad Penny on Monday. The base salary of the contract is $7.5 million, and Penny has incentives that can take the deal all the way up to $9 million if he reaches 204 innings. This is a very solid sign for the Cardinals. They were able to add a starter without committing to a multi-year deal and signed a pitcher that should mesh well with Dave Duncan. Penny appears to be fully recovered from his shoulder issues that plagued him in 2008, as he was able to throw 173 innings this past season. Penny struggled in the American League, but moving to the more pitcher friendly N.L. should help him. After getting released by the Red Sox in 2009, Penny signed with the San Francisco Giants and had a 2.59 ERA down the stretch. Penny probably isn’t 2.59 ERA good, but he should still be a solid middle of the rotation starter along with Kyle Lohse. Even though Penny struggled in Boston for most of the year, he still amassed 2.5 Wins Above Replacement and has been a consistent 3 WAR pitcher for most of his years in the N.L. Considering that market value for WAR pays a pitcher around $4.4 million, if Penny stays at a 2.5 WAR level or makes a return to 3 WAR the Cardinals could have a nice value for their $7.5 to $9 million dollars.

                It is also well-known that the Cardinals will have to commit to what they are going to do to address their offense soon. Scott Boras continues to play the waiting game on Matt Holliday, but the Cardinals can only wait so long before some of the other bats begin to sign elsewhere. Joe Strauss reports that there is still significant interest in bringing back Derosa to split time with Freese and Craig at third and left field, but Derosa has garnered interest from around a dozen teams. If Derosa is brought back, the Cardinals would probably look to add another starting pitcher to the mix, which is a good idea. I think Jaime Garcia has the stuff to be an effective major league pitcher, but it is also unreasonable to expect him to be the #5 starter for the whole season considering this is his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. Strauss has reported in his daily chats that the Cardinals are also interested in bringing in a set-up reliever, and are meeting with Octavio Dotel’s agent today. I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in Dotel at the right price, as he still misses bats (10 plus K’s per 9 ip in his career) and brings a 3.7 ERA and FIP (expected ERA based on controllable pitcher skills like walks and strikeouts) to the fold nearly every season. Two other possibilities for the offense were also banded about on Tuesday. Tony La Russa continues to push for Miguel Tejada, and Strauss suggests that the Cardinals have some interest in Ryan Church. Tejada still hits for a decent average, but doesn’t walk and is limited to third. If the Cardinals don’t get Holliday, I really feel like Derosa would be the best fit because he could split time with Freese at third and with Allen Craig in left. Tejada at a low enough price would be alright, but I just don’t think he fits as well as Derosa does. Ryan Church would be an interesting option. In a team full of RH bats, Church would be a welcome addition from the left side. Church hits RHP very well, to the tone of an .895 OPS in 2009, and could be an interesting platoon option with Allen Craig in left field. Craig mashed left-handers for an OPS that was over 1.000 in AAA last season, which translates into roughly an .850 OPS in the Majors. Church also is a solid defender, as his defense was worth 3.2 runs above an average outfielder in 2009. I would still prefer Derosa instead of Tejada, but Church should be a consideration for the Cardinals if either of those two are brought in.

                Overall this has been a busy couple of days for the Cardinals. They were able to come to terms with Brad Penny, a solid sign, but insist that his signing had nothing to do with the Holliday situation. The Cardinals will have to resolve what direction they are going to commit to soon, as other plan B options might sign elsewhere if the club waits too long on Matt Holliday. Other names are starting to pop onto the radar, such as set-up reliever Octavio Dotel and outfielder Ryan Church, so it is clear the Cardinals do have several backup plans to improve the team if Holliday leaves. Although the Winter Meetings will be coming to a close tomorrow, there will still be plenty of time for action so it is definitely something that is worth paying close attention to.

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