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Signings, Arbitration, and Rumors: The Beginning of the Hot Stove

Jason LaRue is likely the last signing before Winter Meetings next week.

With the first transactions of the off-season made on Monday and the winter meetings being less than a week away, the off-season is finally starting to pick up steam. Teams also had to offer arbitration to their free agents by 11:59 Tuesday if they wanted to receive draft compensation, and surprisingly the Cardinals offered arbitration to Mark Derosa and Joel Pineiro to go along with Matt Holliday. Both Derrick Goold and Joe Strauss have left some interesting tidbits in their articles in the past couple of days, providing some insight into what John Mozeliak and other members of the front office are considering in case Matt Holliday stays or leaves.

On Monday the Cardinals made two moves, first re-signing backup catcher Jason LaRue and then bringing in infielder Ruben Gotay on a minor league deal that includes an invite to spring training. Financial terms of LaRue’s deal haven’t been disclosed, but he is coming off of a contract that paid him $950,000 last season and figures to make around the same amount this year. Personally I have no problem with re-upping LaRue. Statistically he has been worth 0.5 and 0.3 Wins Above Replacement the past two years and provided $2.1 and $1.4 million dollars of value, so as long as his new contract is around the $1 million mark like it was this past year, the Cardinals did the right thing. It should also be noted that LaRue is also well-liked by pitching coach Dave Duncan and the rest of the Cardinal staff, which I still feel is important. I don’t think it’s a good idea to only rely on statistics or only on human perception, and LaRue appears to be a solid sign from both points of view. Gotay, who will be 27 next year, has the possibility of making the major league roster. A natural second baseman, Gotay has also played some third in his career, showing the versatility that La Russa loves to have on his bench. Gotay put up a .272/.429/.450 line for the AAA team of the Diamondbacks this past season, which included 103 walks to only 69 strikeouts. Gotay, a switch-hitter, also had a .973 OPS (on base + slugging) against right-handers but only a .561 OPS against lefties, so Gotay would be a better option to play against right-handers late in the game. Defensively, Gotay is below average at second, posting a career -8.1 runs below average over 163 games, a number that agrees with his Total Zone rating throughout the minor leagues. At third-base, however Gotay might be an average fielder, as he has a +2 Total Zone Rating over 87 games in the minor leagues. Although these weren’t huge moves, Mozeliak did a good job of adding some pieces that can help supplement the roster, providing slightly above replacement level production at a low cost.

Last night, the Cardinals also offered arbitration to 3 of their free agents, which included type A free agent Matt Holliday and type B free agents Mark Derosa and Joel Pineiro. If all three decline arbitration and sign elsewhere, the Cardinals could have up to 4 extra picks in the draft before the second round next season, which would help re-stock a farm system that was hit hard by mid-season trades in 2009. Honestly I was pleasantly surprised when the Cardinals offered arbitration to both Pineiro and Derosa, as I was only expecting one of them getting an offer, with Derosa being the most likely. If Pineiro and Derosa both accept, it isn’t the worse thing in the world to have both back on one year deals, and the potential reward of a supplemental pick for each player was worth the risk in offering arbitration. Derosa on a one year deal could either play a combination of third and left if Holliday leaves or be the primary third-basemen again if the Cardinals do re-sign Matt Holliday. Pineiro on a one year deal fits the mold of what I have said the Cardinals should be looking to do all along, which is to avoid multi-year deals with pitchers. Mozeliak stated in Strauss’s article that the Cardinals would prefer to have shorter deals rather than longer ones, which is something that I agree 100% with. It was two solid moves by John Mozeliak, and the Cardinals will either get the benefits in the draft next June or on the major league club for another year.

Goold and Strauss have also offered some interesting names that the Cardinals are considering if the Cardinals do lose out on Matt Holliday, with both agreeing that Xavier Nady (profiled here) could be an option for left-field. Strauss believes that the Cardinals could pursue someone to play third along with a bat like Nady in left if Holliday walks, but would probably be comfortable giving third to David Freese (profiled here) if Holliday were to return. Goold believes that some in the organization think that Miguel Tejada could be an option for third, but he would have to be willing to move over from shortstop first. Tejada wasn’t offered arbitration by the Astros, so the Cardinals wouldn’t have to surrender their first rounder if they signed him. Tejada, who will be 36 next year, offers a little pop but not much else. His .313 average this past season was largely built on a Batting Average of Balls in Play that was around 20 points above his career average, so Tejada isn’t likely to be a .310 plus hitter again next season. Tejada also had just a 2.9% walk rate in 2009, so he wouldn’t help fix the problem that the Cardinals have with plate discipline. Tejada did hit 46 doubles to go along with 14 homers this past season, so his .795 ops was largely based on his .455 slugging percentage. Basically a good way to think of Tejada offensively is Brendan Ryan with 50 extra points in slugging %. Defensively, comparing Tejada with Brendan Ryan would not be a good idea. Tejada posted a -13.9 UZR this past season, but that was at shorstop. At third base, his UZR would likely go up a bit, and considering as recently as 2008 Tejada had a 9.3 UZR at short its possible that Tejada could be an average to -5 runs below average at the hot corner. Would it be a good idea to sign Tejada? I don’t think it would be the best way to allocate the team’s resources. Considering Tejada would likely want a 2-3 year deal, I don’t think the difference in offensive production of Tejada over David Freese is worth the downgrade defensively to go along with the large salary of Tejada. Freese is a good defensive third sacker who will be making the minimum salary next season, so the Cardinals can improve the team more by taking a pass on Tejada and using their dollars elsewhere.

In conclusion, it’s been a nice start to the Cardinal off-season, but the moves that will define this winter as a success or failure have yet to be made. The Cardinals picked up some nice bench pieces in LaRue and Gotay, and did the right thing by offering Holliday, Derosa, and Pineiro arbitration, but with the winter meetings just a week away, John Mozeliak will soon have to commit to which side of his parallel tracks he is going to follow to avoid the “paralysis” of the Holliday situation. This is arguably the hottest time of the year for rumors, and this next week figures to help paint a clearer picture of what the 2010 Cardinals could look like come opening day.

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Addressing the Rotation: An Avenue to Consider

Rich Harden would fit the mold of what John Mozeliak is looking for in a starter this off-season.

Despite all of the controversy surrounding the Cy-Young award voting, I am going to shift gears and talk about the other important event that happened Thursday, which was the official beginning of free agency. Now that teams can actually talk contracts with players, things figure to pick up steam in the next couple of weeks. John Mozeliak joined Bernie Miklasz’s radio show this week, and offered some insight into what his plan might be this off-season. Obviously plan A is to sign Matt Holliday, but that’s an issue I’ve debated enough already, so I’ll focus on what Mozeliak has said he might consider should Holliday walk.

Mo’ made a comment that besides looking for a veteran presence at either third-base or left-field, he would probably shift his focus on starting pitching. I am very glad that Mozeliak isn’t comfortable going into the season with both David Freese and Allen Craig as projected starters. A lineup carrying two rookies with plate discipline that isn’t the best is not a good idea, so acquiring a player who has an established track record makes sense. I am also very glad to see Mozeliak say that starting pitching would be the priority, as the starting rotation carries some significant injury risk.

The Current Rotation:

Carpenter-I don’t need to go into detail to describe that Chris is an injury risk. He has said himself many times that his nerve condition could come back at any time, making him a perennial candidate to miss some time on the disabled list.
Wainwright-Adam has missed some time in 2008 with a ruptured pulley in his finger, but has stayed healthy otherwise. I will state however, that Wainwright did rank 6^th in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) scale, and put a lot of mileage on his arm in his 233 inning campaign.
Kyle Lohse-Lohse had an injury-riddled season in 2009, only throwing 117.2 innings on the year. He suffered through a variety of injuries, including a right knee strain, various forearm ailments resulting from a hit-by-pitch, and a strained groin late in the year. Lohse’s .7 mph loss in velocity on his fastball from the year before and his 3% drop in the amount of strikes thrown can probably be attributed to his various injuries, but hopefully he can come into the spring healthy and be the pitcher he was in 2008.
Jaime Garcia-Garcia, a left-hander, will most likely be the official #5 starter when the season starts, but as of right now I have him 4^th. There’s a lot to like about Garcia, as he uses an upper 80′s to low 90′s fastball along with an over the top curve and change to generate ground balls. Garcia’s ground ball % has hovered in the mid 50′s to lower 60′s in the minors, which should mesh well with Dave Duncan’s philosophy. There is also some caution with Garcia, as he is is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Teams like to limit the amount of innings their young pitchers throw, and with Garcia pitching in his first full season since before his surgery it’s pretty optimistic and probably unrealistic to project more than 160-180 innings from him. If Garcia could give the Cardinals that many innings from the back of the rotation, I am sure the Cardinals would take it.

As you can see, the front 4 in the rotation has the potential to be very good, but health is the key variable. If someone were to get hurt, depth is also a serious issue. With Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, and Blake Hawksworth all likely to be relievers, Guys like Mike Parisi and P. J. Walters would be the next to step in, which is a cause for concern. This is why I feel the rotation depth is a serious issue and needs to be addressed whether Matt Holliday is signed or not. So what free agents could John Mozeliak consider?

I have mentioned before that with Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse signed long-term, the Cardinals aren’t in a position to make another large multi-year commitment to a pitcher, which is what Mozeliak has said on numerous occasions. That can make things tricky in the free agent market, but luckily this year there should be plenty of options. First let me clarify that when I say that the Cardinals should stay away from large multi-year commitments, I am talking about pitchers who will probably command large money for 3-5 years, which would mean guys like John Lackey, Randy Wolf, and possibly Joel Pineiro. This year’s free agent class is filled with pitchers who are coming off of injuries and are looking to sign with a club to re-up their stock for the future, so the contracts of what they are looking for and what John Mozeliak is wanting to give are a good match. Some of these names include: Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, and John Smoltz. If healthy, each of these pitchers could be a nice value on a 1-2 year deal, but all have had their share of injuries in the past. That being said, if Mozeliak signs one of these types of pitchers he should also acquire a swing-man who could fill in the rotation or bullpen. Signing a talented but oft-injured pitcher and pairing him with a capable swing-man could be a very good scenario and provide a lot of value to the club. For example:

Sign Rich Harden

-say he pitches 150 innings over 25 starts, which is pretty close to what he has averaged the past two seasons. His projected ERA and FIP (Fielding Indepedent Pitching-measures things like walks and strikeouts to predict what a pitcher’s ERA would be if defense for every pitcher was the exact same) next season are 3.33 and 3.67, respectively.

Sign an inexpensive pitcher like a non-tendered free agent-Sergio Mitre(?)

-Mitre is a definite non-tender candidate for the Yankees, and would be a good example of a swing-man Mozeliak could look at to pair with Harden in a rotation spot next year. If Harden makes 25 starts, Mitre would probably get around 7 starts and likely throw around 40 innings. His projected ERA is 5.00, but his projected FIP is just 4.39, so on a good defensive team like the Cardinals it would be reasonable to expect an ERA of around 4.50.

Harden/Mitre

Altogether, a Harden/Mitre combination would make around 32 starts and throw around 190 innings with a 3.58 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, which would be fantastic production from the 4^th spot in the rotation. Add in the fact that the contracts for each of these pitchers would both be for only one or two years and you can see how this would be an attractive avenue for John Mozeliak to consider. The Cardinals would likely have one the best rotations in baseball and not tie themselves down with another long-term commitment while giving guys like Lance Lynn another year to develop in the minor leagues. It would be a win for all the parties involved, and is something I hope John Mozeliak considers doing this off-season, no matter if Holliday signs or not.

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2009 Cardinal Bloggers Awards

United Cardinal Bloggers

It’s awards season, which means I’ll take a break from my usual off-season updates and reflect upon the year that was.

Cardinal Player of the Year:Albert Pujols-This one isn’t even close. Albert had a monster season, putting up a .327/.443/.658 line and being an 8.4 WAR player.
Cardinal Pitcher of the Year: Adam Wainwright-I can see the argument for Carpenter, but I went with Wainwright because of the quantity of innings over Carpenter’s slightly better quality of innings. Also, Wainwright was worth 5.7 WAR, and Carpenter was a 5.6 WAR pitcher. If the Cardinals had more viable replacements to step in the rotation and help if other pitchers got hurt, I might go with Carpenter, but with the Cardinals being pretty thin in rotation depth, the innings that Wainwright provided helped save the bullpen from being overworked and helped the Cardinals limit the innings guys like Mitchell Boggs and PJ Walters had to throw.
Game of the Year: September 26 @ Rockies-This was the closest thing the Cardinals had to celebrating a World Series this year, and it was also a fantastic game in itself. Wainwright struck out 11 in 8 strong innings, and the go-ahead homer from backup Jason Larue was huge as well.
Surprise Player of the Year: Brendan Ryan-Raise your hand if you thought Brendan Ryan would be a 3.2 WAR shortstop this year? Yeah, me neither. Ryan now appears to be the long term solution at shortstop after flashing a .740 ops and playing gold glove caliber defense. Schumaker and Franklin were also pleasant surprises, but Schumaker was labeled the second baseman in spring training and Franklin was a candidate to close all along.
Disappointing Player of the Year: Rick Ankiel-Ankiel managed a .672 ops in his free agent year and generally just looked lost at the plate. I don’t need to post stats here when it was clear to everyone who watched the Cardinals that Rick Ankiel was a massive bust in 2009. Some blame it on his shoulder, which he reportedly injured in his collision with the wall early in the year, but the truth is he wasn’t hitting before that either. Khalil Green was also a candidate here, but he wasn’t coming off an .843 ops season like Rick was.
Cardinal Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus-Another no brainer, Colby had an up and down rookie campaign offensively, but was a defensive standout and was worth 2.3 WAR. Colby looks to have the center field position for the Cardinals covered for a long time.
Off-Season Acquisition of the Year: Trever Miller-This was really an uninspiring list, as the Cardinals were unable to really make a splash last off-season. Miller, however did fill the role of lefty specialist very nicely, posting a 2.01 ERA and a sub-1 whip on the year.
Mid-Season Acquisition of the Year: Matt Holliday-Matt Holliday was so productive in the 2 months the Cardinals had him that he was their fourth most productive player for the season per WAR, finishing behind Pujols, Molina, and Brendan Ryan.
Most Anticipated Cardinal: Shelby Miller(RHP)-My most anticipated Cardinal is also the farthest away. Miller arguably has the most potential of any Cardinal prospect and is their best pitching prospect since Ankiel. Miller possesses a low to mid 90-’s fastball and complements it with sharp but inconsistent curve. His arrival date is still several years away, but Miller has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter for the Cardinals.
Best Individual Blog: Fungoes-Obviously there are a lot of good choices, but I am a huge fan of the Sabermetric viewpoint of the Fungoes blog.
Best Team Blog: Viva El Birdos-I have followed VEB for a long time and it’s a must read every morning. Highly recommend.
Best Media Blog: Cardinal Beat-This was another hard choice, but with different Cardinal beat writers contributing, it’s very good for off-season rumors and other stories around baseball.
Best UCB Project: Roundtables-I think this is a fantastic way for bloggers to weigh in on different issues and happenings surrounding the Cardinals

-For the final 3. questions(which can be found here http://www.cardinal70.com/united-cardinal-bloggers/2009-cardinal-blogger-awards-n.php#bottom), I have to admit I am new to some of these other sites and didn’t want to voice an opinion that I did not feel strongly about.

-Special thanks to cardinal70.com “c70 at the bat” for organizing these awards, be sure to visit his site to see the results coming up soon!

-Agree or Disagree? Drop a comment in the section below and I’ll be happy to explain my reasoning.

-As for Saturday, I’ll be delving into the rumors and ramblings of the winter meetings and examining John Mozeliak’s strategies in building the 2010 Cardinals.

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Switching Format

All:

I will be switching to a Wednesday/Saturday post schedule for a little while now, expect tommorow’s post to focus on the United Cardinal’s Bloggers end of season awards!

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