Adam Dunn would add some sock from the left side to the Cardinal lineup.

                Since arguably the entire off-season is dictated on whether Matt Holliday returns or walks as a free agent, it makes sense for Cardinals to have some backup plans for left field in case the inevitable(?) happens. Once such backup plan the Cardinals could consider is Adam Dunn. Cardinal fans know the story with Dunn, as they saw him primarily do 3 things during his tenure with the Reds: take walks, hit home runs, and play bad defense. So would Dunn be a good target for the Cardinals to consider? In considering this scenario I am taking Dunn’s offense, defense, and cost of acquiring him in forming my consensus.

                 Dunn is obviously a very potent bat. Some fans point to his high strikeout totals and totally dismiss Dunn’s offense, but he more than makes up for those admittedly high K totals by being an on-base machine with power. Dunn had a .398 obp in 2009, and carries a .383 mark for his career. Dunn’s batting average isn’t high, it’s below .250 for his career, but Dunn still got on base more in 2009 by hitting .267 this year than Matt Holliday did while hitting .313. Dunn also has prodigious power, hitting 38 homers and 29 doubles which helped him post a slugging percentage of .529 in 2009. So Dunn gets on base and hits for power, two attributes that the Cardinals could really use an upgrade in, but what about his defense?

                Everyone knows Dunn is very limited defensively, but just how much so? Besides, as Joe Strauss has pointed out, the Cardinals have sacrificed defense in left-field before. Well to be kind, Adam Dunn is awful defensively. His defense was -14.4 runs below an average left fielder in 2009, which is bad enough, but considering that Dunn only played 62 games at the position this year makes that figure look even worse. If Dunn had played in 150 games in left, his defense would have cost the Nationals over 28 runs if he continued to play defense at that pace! Dunn also played 22 games in right, where he was -8.1 runs below average, and 67 games at first base, where he was -13.9 runs below average. I didn’t think I would see a time where Chris Duncan would be a better option defensively out in left field, but if the Cardinals traded for Dunn that would be the case.

                When you combine Dunn’s offensive prowess with his defensive liabilities, it made Dunn be worth 1.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this past season, which produced $5.2 million dollars in value. Considering that Dunn’s 2010 contract will pay him $12 million, it’s unlikely that his performance will match his salary. Obviously Dunn is also under the Nationals control right now, so the Cardinals would have to put together a package to send to Washington. Since Dunn already probably won’t be worth the contract he is getting, when you consider that the Cardinals will also have to send additional pieces over to the Nationals its hard to imagine John Mozeliak coming out ahead on this one, even if Dunn is a type A free agent and the Cardinals get draft picks for him at the end of the season. The draft picks from type A free agents are worth on average worth $5.5 million dollars in value minus the signing bonus that they collect. Basically if Dunn reproduces his 2009, he will produce 5.2 million dollars in value and then provide an additional 5.5 million dollars in value if he leaves as a type A free agent and signs with with a team that finished in 16-30 in the standings. Dunn will also be getting paid 12 million in addition to the value of the players the Cardinals would have to send over to acquire Dunn, so in a Dunn trade the Cardinals would likely be sending over much more value than they would be receiving.

                In conclusion, Adam Dunn is a fantastic offensive player, there is no denying that. For as good as he is offensively however, his defense is just as bad. In terms of overall WAR, Allen Craig has a good chance of matching Dunn’s output next season, and Craig will only be paid the league minimum and doesn’t have to be traded for. It’s hard to imagine Dunn being a good value when all the factors (salary, performance, type A compensation picks, players traded) are accounted for. Overall the Cardinals need to look elsewhere for left field options in case Matt Holliday departs, and luckily there are plenty of players out there who can fill that void.

By: ryan_jones29 on Nov 5th, 2009
Tagged as: GM Suggestions

3 Comments »