Brad Penny should be a solid middle of the rotation starter for the Cardinals.

                With the Winter Meetings in full swing there has been plenty of buzz surrounding Cardinal Nation. The club addressed its rotation with the signing of Brad Penny, but the bigger news is still to come. John Mozeliak and the Cardinals have still not decided what direction to go in regarding the Matt Holliday situation, but will need to do so soon. If Holliday is not retained, Mozeliak will look to upgrade the offense at third base, left field, or both while also looking into adding another starting pitcher, possibly one of the rehabbing pitchers that I wrote about. Another consideration is adding a bench bat, and Ryan Church is a name that apparently is getting some consideration. As you can see it has been a very busy couple of days, and with a day and a half still left at the Winter Meetings there still may be time for more fireworks for the Cardinals.

                I thought John Mozeliak did a good job in grabbing Brad Penny on Monday. The base salary of the contract is $7.5 million, and Penny has incentives that can take the deal all the way up to $9 million if he reaches 204 innings. This is a very solid sign for the Cardinals. They were able to add a starter without committing to a multi-year deal and signed a pitcher that should mesh well with Dave Duncan. Penny appears to be fully recovered from his shoulder issues that plagued him in 2008, as he was able to throw 173 innings this past season. Penny struggled in the American League, but moving to the more pitcher friendly N.L. should help him. After getting released by the Red Sox in 2009, Penny signed with the San Francisco Giants and had a 2.59 ERA down the stretch. Penny probably isn’t 2.59 ERA good, but he should still be a solid middle of the rotation starter along with Kyle Lohse. Even though Penny struggled in Boston for most of the year, he still amassed 2.5 Wins Above Replacement and has been a consistent 3 WAR pitcher for most of his years in the N.L. Considering that market value for WAR pays a pitcher around $4.4 million, if Penny stays at a 2.5 WAR level or makes a return to 3 WAR the Cardinals could have a nice value for their $7.5 to $9 million dollars.

                It is also well-known that the Cardinals will have to commit to what they are going to do to address their offense soon. Scott Boras continues to play the waiting game on Matt Holliday, but the Cardinals can only wait so long before some of the other bats begin to sign elsewhere. Joe Strauss reports that there is still significant interest in bringing back Derosa to split time with Freese and Craig at third and left field, but Derosa has garnered interest from around a dozen teams. If Derosa is brought back, the Cardinals would probably look to add another starting pitcher to the mix, which is a good idea. I think Jaime Garcia has the stuff to be an effective major league pitcher, but it is also unreasonable to expect him to be the #5 starter for the whole season considering this is his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. Strauss has reported in his daily chats that the Cardinals are also interested in bringing in a set-up reliever, and are meeting with Octavio Dotel’s agent today. I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in Dotel at the right price, as he still misses bats (10 plus K’s per 9 ip in his career) and brings a 3.7 ERA and FIP (expected ERA based on controllable pitcher skills like walks and strikeouts) to the fold nearly every season. Two other possibilities for the offense were also banded about on Tuesday. Tony La Russa continues to push for Miguel Tejada, and Strauss suggests that the Cardinals have some interest in Ryan Church. Tejada still hits for a decent average, but doesn’t walk and is limited to third. If the Cardinals don’t get Holliday, I really feel like Derosa would be the best fit because he could split time with Freese at third and with Allen Craig in left. Tejada at a low enough price would be alright, but I just don’t think he fits as well as Derosa does. Ryan Church would be an interesting option. In a team full of RH bats, Church would be a welcome addition from the left side. Church hits RHP very well, to the tone of an .895 OPS in 2009, and could be an interesting platoon option with Allen Craig in left field. Craig mashed left-handers for an OPS that was over 1.000 in AAA last season, which translates into roughly an .850 OPS in the Majors. Church also is a solid defender, as his defense was worth 3.2 runs above an average outfielder in 2009. I would still prefer Derosa instead of Tejada, but Church should be a consideration for the Cardinals if either of those two are brought in.

                Overall this has been a busy couple of days for the Cardinals. They were able to come to terms with Brad Penny, a solid sign, but insist that his signing had nothing to do with the Holliday situation. The Cardinals will have to resolve what direction they are going to commit to soon, as other plan B options might sign elsewhere if the club waits too long on Matt Holliday. Other names are starting to pop onto the radar, such as set-up reliever Octavio Dotel and outfielder Ryan Church, so it is clear the Cardinals do have several backup plans to improve the team if Holliday leaves. Although the Winter Meetings will be coming to a close tomorrow, there will still be plenty of time for action so it is definitely something that is worth paying close attention to.

By: ryan_jones29 on Dec 9th, 2009
Tagged as: Uncategorized

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