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A look at the St. Louis Cardinals baseball team from a GM perspective.

United Cardinal Bloggers Roundtable Question of the Day

United Cardinal Bloggers Roundtable Question of the Day

As part of the United Cardinal Bloggers Roundtable, it was my turn to pose a question. Here is my two part question which is followed my the member responses.

  • Which player, not named Oscar Taveras that is on the current roster of the Cardinals from top-to-bottom (all the way through the minor leagues), will be the next Cardinal to hit 30 home runs in the major leagues in one season for the Cardinals?
  • Which player, not named Oscar Taveras that is on the current roster of the Cardinals from top-to-bottom (all the way through the minor leagues), will be the next Cardinal to steal 25 bases  in one season in a Cardinals uniform?

TO ADD to that, they can’t have done it in the past.


Home runs – Allen Craig

Stolen bases – I’m not convinced it will happen again



Jermaine Curtis’ stats are pretty awesome right now. I don’t normally play the speculation game too much, and here’s why: I suck at it. My odds of being right are close to zero. I would say Jermaine has one of the best shots at the HR title, but Kolten Wong may just take the SB title. It won’t be Jermaine on that one.

Wes Keene  Keene on Baseball


I don’t feel Kolten has the type of makeup that shows him to excel in any one category, he’ll be average to above-average in most categories, which is still a huge improvement.

I’ll echo Nick with his Craig prediction and add that I think it happens this year.

I think the Cards will end up with a base stealing threat at some point, but I firmly feel it will come from outside the organization.  If I had to pick a current redbird, it would be Jon Jay, but I’m not confident in that prediction.

Bill Ivie


Good question.  Not Oscar?  Maybe Kolten Wong?

Daniel Solzman  Redbird Rants


Home runs: Allen Craig

Stolen bases: Yadi, of course! He’s fast, don’t ya know

Tara Wellman  Aaron Miles Fastball


The Wrench.  The Amazing Whacker Guy.  Soon to be known as Mr. 30 Home Run Guy.  It is not a question of if, but when.  When Allen Craig stays healthy enough to play a full season.  That will likely be 2013 and he will surpass 30 home runs in late August.  He may not be the “player of a generation” as Pujols was, but he is one of the best old school offensive players we’ve seen in a long time (gap to gap, hit the other way with power)

Ohhh, this is a very good question as it hints at some of the changes that are happening in the minor league system, for the better.   The most likely player to do so would be Adron Chambers, if he could get a break and be able to play every day.  With Jon Jay’s continual improvement, that is getting harder and harder for Chambers to do, but if he makes the 2013 club as the new Shane Robinson, he might get enough pinch hitting/running opportunities late in games to hit the 25 steals number.

Looking beyond Chambers to the core of players that actually might play every day in the big leagues, the next most likely candidate will be Kolten Wong.  He is really developing into a complete baseball player and learning to use his speed.  I was surprised (and impressed) at how aggressive he was on the bases this year in Springfield.

Bob Netherton  On the Outside Corner


Good question:

I’m calling 30 homers for both Allen Craig and Matt Holliday next

season. Craig is obvious because all it will take is 500 at-bats for

him and it’s a foregone conclusion. He’s that type of power guy.

Holliday is a bit more of a reach, but he tops it this year going away

if he doesn’t have that horrible April, and I’m not going to count

another .200 hitting month for him again. So I say the club gets two

of those guys in the upcoming summer.


As for 25 stolen bases? That’s tough, because for as aggessive as

Matheny’s approach seems to be, he just doesn’t have the tools to

properly institute it right now. I’m going to reach here, and say

Charlie Tilson. Unless the club puts major money into the CF spot, I

think it’s his by the time Jay’s arbitration round is up (if he lasts

that long.) and he’s got the skills to do it. Everything that’s been

said makes him seem like the guy who’s job that’s going to be


And with that, you have my super far reach for the winter in it’s entirety.

Matt Whitener


I would go with Allen Craig, but I think he will injury his pinky toe on his right foot rounding first base and running into an alien spaceship.  My answer to both is David Freese, because he will be super motivated to score a huge contract to feed all 400 wives he has in the St. Louis area who are already named “Mrs. Freese”.  Yadi and Jay have an outside shot at the stolen bases, even if they each get thrown out 40 times in the process.  After all, slump don’t speed (or something like that).

Dennis Lawson   Pitchers Hit Eighth


Matt Holliday will be the next Cardinal to hit 30 home runs in a season.

Kolten Wong could be the next to swipe 25 as a Cardinal (in 2014).

Mark Tomasik


Interesting questions, and I don’t know that I would have answered Oscar Taveras for either of them anyway (especially the stolen base question, as he had one in 2011 when I saw him in the Quad Cities).

Who will be the next Cardinal to hit 30 home runs? Allen Craig — health permitting, in 2013.

Who will be the next Cardinal to steal 25 bases? Adron Chambers was my first instinct, but I don’t think he’ll ever get the playing time to be able to accomplish that. So I’ll go with Tara’s answer: Yadi. There’s nothing he can’t do!

Chris Coleman    Aaron Miles’ Fastball


I like the way you worded that question. I think Matt Holliday will hit 30 homers first.  He’s been on a tear & hope that good stuff continues.

Mary Clausen   MLB Voice


Fun question, and one that points out the reality that the 30 home-run mark is “easier” to achieve these days, while the 25 stolen-base mark is more difficult (from 1980-1995, MLB had 204 players hit 30 home runs and 511 steal 25 bases; from 1996-2012, those numbers were 549 and 437, respectively).

Allen Craig seems like the best option for 30 home runs. Bill James projects him to hit 27 next year, but that’s based on 139 games. As others have said, all he needs is a full season.

In addition to core requirements of speed and on-base skill, stolen bases are a function of opportunity in the form of playing time and lineup spot (and managerial blessing!). Jon Jay has the advantage in both of those areas, in addition to speed (team-leading 4.1 Baserunning rating) and making base (.373 OBP in 2012). As Bob noted, Velez has the capacity (led the Redbirds with 37 SBs in 2012), as does Chambers, but neither figures to get the opportunity to steal many bases at the major-league level, at least not with the Cardinals, where they are blocked by Descalso-Wong and Holliday-Jay-Carpenter-Taveras.




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