Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-03-07

By: Knup on Mar 7th, 2010
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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-28

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-21: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-14: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/ciJQCY #
  • @redsoxgirl46 You don't have to have a brain to work at #Staples. in reply to redsoxgirl46 #
  • 19 million people watched the Olympic hockey game across the continent. NBC was the winner,,selling ads on NBC and others to MSNBC #
  • The season is creeping forward. 40 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @keithlaw Adam Wainwright would put you on hold in a flash! in reply to keithlaw #
  • Tiger is being dropped as endorser by Gillette, because many of those waitresses he shagged were definitely not "the best a man can get." #
  • @dgoold Serious question: Where will Lopez play on opening day?…. and bat 2nd? My guess is SS. in reply to dgoold #
  • 36 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • If the USA can pull it out, Can we just say, this win is for OHNO. since he got jabbed out of one? #
  • In the words of the immortal Kanye West, Sidney Crosby is the BEST of ALL TIME… #
  • Now that the Olympics are over…REMEMBER CARDINAL FANS…. 36 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Awesome, I got tickets to Cincinnati for the Cardinals opener! #
  • 1 Day 16 Hours until the first Spring Training game! In the words of the immortal POP singer PINK, "Let's Get the Party Started" #

By: Knup on Feb 28th, 2010
Tagged as: Uncategorized

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-21

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-14: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-07: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/bDTSfH #
  • Hilarious from CubsSuckClub-only the Cubbies would do this.Leave it up to the Cubs Annual 2010 to make this mistake… http://bit.ly/cXVGin #
  • @Erika4stlcards I like the live feed cam idea at Roger Dean Stadium. I like the way you think! #
  • @RotoExperts I will take Jeter/Arod in reply to RotoExperts #
  • @GoElBirdos Bears fired the architect of Cutler trade? Do they wish they had Orton back? in reply to GoElBirdos #
  • @GoElBirdos Wrong Bears. in reply to GoElBirdos #
  • Check out the Cubs gaffe by Maple Street Press. It says Cubs Anal w/DLee head in the middle. http://bit.ly/bt55W6 Hilarious #
  • So Felipe Lopez could see his 5th team in 3 years? .. Might need to back away very slowly, STL. seems to be malignant. #
  • New post! Spring Questions:  
    -Sorry about the lack of activity recently.  A busy stretch for me personally has co… http://bit.ly/cND2h1 #
  • @dgoold fascinating to hear Pujols talk hitting…. This is one area Mac has to only listen. in reply to dgoold #
  • 43 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #

By: Knup on Feb 21st, 2010
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Spring Questions

Kyle McClellan

 

-Sorry about the lack of activity recently.  A busy stretch for me personally has coincided with a real lack of  activity with the Cards.

-As you all know, pitchers and catchers reported this week, and the Cardinal camp is filled with some intriguing questions besides how the new hitting coach is doing:

-Will Brendan Ryan, who finally had his bum wrist operated on,be ready by opening day?

-Who will take hold of the 5th starter spot?

-Will John Mozeliak use his remaining “bullet” this spring, and if so, on whom? 

Time will tell on the Brendan Ryan situation, as he is expected to report to Jupiter for rehab this next week.  His medical prognosis seems good for now, but untill he starts swinging a bat it will be hard to guage the situation.  If Ryan were to be down for an extended period of time, Tyler Greene figures to make the 25 man roster.  Most projection systems call for an OPS of around .700 for Greene, who has shown promising tools but is also plagued by high strikeout totals offensively.  On defense, Greene is projected to be average, which doesn’t seem right after seeing him make several outstanding plays a year ago.  It’s hard to say without seeing him consistently, but perhaps Greene also struggles with consistency on his defense.  In any event, if Ryan is down for a significant amount of time Greene should be the top option to fill in, as Julio Lugo’s balky knees no longer make him a passable option at short for any extended period of time.

-A lot is being made about whether Jaime Garcia, Kyle McClellan, or Rich Hill will take hold of the opening in the starting rotation, and all have positives and negatives to enter into the equation.  Garcia probably has the brightest future of the three, but is entering his first full year back from TJ surgery and could probably benefit from spending at least the first half of the year down in Memphis.  Kyle McClellan is probably the favorite as things stand today, but he too has had his share of injuries in the past and his entering into the rotation creates a vacancy in the bullpen.  Hill is the most intriguing out of the three, as he is just two years removed from an impressive 183 strikeout campaign as a member of the Cubs.  If Hill shows that he has regained his command after shoulder surgery a year ago, which is admittedly a big if, he could surprise. 

-As of right now John Mozeliak is taking a “wait and see” approach before making any additional additions to the roster.  He’s very “bullish” on David Freese at third base, and notes that players who want to sign quickly such as Felipe Lopez may not fit with his desire to evaluate what they Cardinals have in camp before making any moves.  There could potentially be a fit for another ex-Cardinal in Russ Springer or Kiko Calero, who is coming off a solid season for the Marlins, if Kyle McClellan wins the 5th starter job and Josh Kinney fails to replace him in the bullpen. 

-That’s what is going on in Cardinal Nation at the moment, and hopefully by next week we will have a sense of where Brendan Ryan and his injured wrist stands.  I don’t expect any moves to be made until the games begin in Spring Training, but Mozeliak has also stated that he will be “opportunistic,” so if the right player came along at the right price he could jump.  Finally, I don’t expect any headway in the 5th starter competition to made until the games begin either, so it appears it will stay a three horce race for now.

By: secret_sauce on Feb 20th, 2010
Tagged as: Cardinal Small Talk

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-14

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-07: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-31: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/ag5CEe #
  • about 1,300 hours till Opening Day at MLB. #mlb #
  • @Erika4stlcards I am looking forward to #mlbtv for this year. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • Watching the show #castle and they will have Joe Torre on w/ a story about a star player getting killed. #
  • Now that Schumaker is under contract, how important will Lugo be this year? Is he the next super sub that TLR will get uber-at-bats? #
  • @GoElBirdos Tell TLR that. He has used some interesting people in the past for his "main" utility guy. in reply to GoElBirdos #
  • @JoeStrauss If Cards win, fans won't care about lack of African Americans players. That is what they are all about. in reply to JoeStrauss #
  • 55 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • The first pitch of the 2010 MiLB season will take place in Syracuse, N.Y. at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 8. #
  • Atlanta OF'er Jason Heyward listed as the No. 1 player in the Minor Leagues..Will he be on MLB roster? #MiLB #Braves #
  • Please Mo, just say no to the recently released Willy Taveras. #stlcards #
  • @FishSTL Just remember that 2 teams gave up on him in the last month. in reply to FishSTL #
  • What's this all about at this time of year? #globedemocrat reports Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan undergoes wrist surgery #
  • What's this all about? Just got home and got the news. Brendan Ryan had surgery? NOW? Why do they wait? Now guess Lopez is looking to sign? #
  • @Erika4stlcards I realize Glaus had completely diff surgery than BR, but the same concerns come across my mind. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • lots of $$4 for a Wang..#Nats will guarantee Wang 2 million, and he can more than double that in incentives. #
  • So to rehash a story from today w/Brendan Ryan having wrist surgery… I ask..So he had to wait one week before the start of ST to do this? #
  • Jim Hendry's worst moves http://bit.ly/cCD8Fj Agree or not? #
  • With Boras being fired by Lopez… was it basically dollars or was it clubhouse issues that have kept Felipe Lopez from being signed? #
  • 51 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Reds GM Walt Jocketty said that the duo's (OCabrera and AMiles) playoff experience was a factor in their acquisition, Got there first Walt. #
  • 50 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • 2 days 19 hrs til Pitchers and Catchers report acc to #stlcards website. #
  • “People ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” #
  • —Rogers Hornsby #

By: Knup on Feb 14th, 2010
Tagged as: Uncategorized

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-07

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-31: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-24: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/akEdBA #
  • @JohnMarecek Buster_ESPN Am told by source close to the Twins that the report of a preliminary 10-year agreement with Mauer is not accurate. in reply to JohnMarecek #
  • 63 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @alysonfooter Is Michael Bourn the most media savvy?It always appears MB is always doing something. By design or a natural? in reply to alysonfooter #
  • @redsoxgirl46 Don't worry Westmoreland is just your fan. in reply to redsoxgirl46 #
  • @Secret_Sauce29 to me the most imp part of a draft starts after about the 4th-5th rd. Usually cant go too wrong early. in reply to Secret_Sauce29 #
  • @MtnMdMarathon I am planning MLBTv also…. do u hook to tv w/HDMI cable? Is quality good? Did you buy the mosaic with more than 1 screen? #
  • @mattholliday7 your followers on Twitter will follow your every tweet…. everything you say will be microscoped! in reply to mattholliday7 #
  • @mattholliday7 Parenthood is def. priceless. in reply to mattholliday7 #
  • Mo legislature wants to punish KC Chiefs and STL Rams for any blackouts http://bit.ly/cK6OnK //// maybe they should punish bad football! #
  • For those of you in COLD and SNOW , I offer this! 58 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Saw this…Cards are looking for a plyr for 3rd,1st, OF w/power and ave..Only thing left is FLopez…are they playing bluff w/ea other? #
  • I have some doubts about REDS– signed a declining Cabrera-block promising young SS in Paul Janish, and then why get Aaron Miles? #
  • New post! Open Forum!: Going to try something a little bit different today-Any Cardinal or baseball related questi… http://bit.ly/ak1AFU #

By: Knup on Feb 7th, 2010
Tagged as: Uncategorized

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Open Forum!

Going to try something a little bit different today-Any Cardinal or baseball related questions? Ask away and I will answer them all!  This might completely flop, but I figured it would be worth a try.

By: secret_sauce on Feb 7th, 2010
Tagged as: Live Blogging

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-31

  • New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-24: New post! Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-01-17: New post! Twitte… http://bit.ly/5uMg8V #
  • 70 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @CubsSuckClub 23 days until pitchers and catchers report! #stlcards in reply to CubsSuckClub #
  • @Erika4stlcards Be sure to check out CubsSuckClub on the web. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • Is Park Place in Chicago? RT @mlbtraderumors: Cubs, Rays After Park http://bit.ly/5mCgAE #mlb #
  • 69 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Positively too much.-RT @Secret_Sauce29: 10 mil for sheets seems like alot for the a's, but beane will likely flip him during the season #
  • @MatthewHLeach Any idea when single game tickets go on sale? I am hoping to go to Cincy for Opener. in reply to MatthewHLeach #
  • @nyp_joelsherman best lefty hitter Cubs have is Carlos Zambrano. in reply to nyp_joelsherman #
  • Any idea what the major league salary average is nowadays? #
  • Never hurts to have another lefthander. #
  • @Secret_Sauce29 How can you say with assurance that Garcia is better than Hill. What has Garcia accomplished that Hill has not? in reply to Secret_Sauce29 #
  • 69 Days till the OPENER #
  • New post! The Rotation, Third Base, and Other Happenings:  
     
     

     

    Some snippets from around Cardinal nation and … http://bit.ly/9dCNWl #

  • Rams RB Jackson accused of beating up pregnant girlfriend | WHAT A MAN! #
  • @TonyLaRussa Shouldn't you also create competition in ST or they are lax/complacent? in reply to TonyLaRussa #
  • @TonyLaRussa I guess my "real" question is how many roster spots don't need competition? i.e AP, MH and Yadi…others? in reply to TonyLaRussa #
  • Anyone use #mlbtv for their computer last year? How was it? #
  • @LauraSchulte I can watch the Cards every game on my cable. So I believe it might be what I purchase… a bit expensive #mlbtv in reply to LauraSchulte #
  • @LauraSchulte i do plan on watching TONS of other games, makes good fodder for my blog. Thanks. in reply to LauraSchulte #
  • @Erika4stlcards i can watch ALL the games for Cards on CABLE. Just wanting to watch the other teams. in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • @Erika4stlcards editing T-ball? Trying to make them look better for the scouts? :) in reply to Erika4stlcards #
  • 66 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • Do any of the "baseball officials" ever talk about and doing something about how the divisions in MLB are not equal. That is unfair adv. #
  • the Reds have quietly put together a very nice looking team going into the 2010 season. #
  • New post! PECOTA!:  
    It’s late January, which can only mean one thing: it’s time for Baseball Prospectus to releas… http://bit.ly/9Vgamy #
  • Does Mora make sense for Rockies? With Tulo, Barmes and Stewart around the bases it seems they didn't need him badly. #
  • 64 days
    until Opening Day,
    April 5, 2010 #
  • @JohnMarecek I bet Beyonce following Taylor Swift acceptance was not an accident. in reply to JohnMarecek #
  • Watching the Ryan Seacrest Red Carpet Show made me appreciate buying my clothes at WalMart. #
  • She's not called PINK for nothing!!!! #
  • @JohnMarecek As I said earlier… now we know why they call her PINK. in reply to JohnMarecek #

By: Knup on Jan 31st, 2010
Tagged as: Uncategorized

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PECOTA!

PETCOTA sees another division championship for the Cards next season

PECOTA sees another division championship for the Cards next season

 

It’s late January, which can only mean one thing: it’s time for Baseball Prospectus to release its PECOTA projections for the 2010 season!  Not enthused? Well that’s ok, because there are some common misconceptions about what a projection system is.  I also encourage any fan to subscribe to BP, as it really is a great site for people who enjoy the statistical side of the game.  (As a side note, I can’t go into specific player statistics because it’s subscriber only content and I don’t want to get in trouble for being a stat pirate, if there is such a thing)

What it is:

-PECOTA takes into account numerous player information, matches them with comparable players, and then predicts what the player will do in the subsequent season(s) based on that information.  How accurate are the projections?  Statistics have shown that there is a .7-.8 correlation between predicted and actual stats, which is strong, but not perfect.  Basically there is too strong of correlation to completely dismiss PECOTA but too weak to trust it as the absolute truth.

-PECOTA should be used to get a general idea of what a fan can reasonably expect to see from a player next season. 

-When looking at any one specific player, the projection may seem to understate or overstate what the player will likely do.  This is because the PECOTA projection system divides its projection into ten categories of percentiles, and uses the 50th percentile score, which is obviously the midpoint.  You’ll see what I mean by this a little later.

-As far as the Cardinals are concerned, PECOTA expects them to score 745 runs and give up 702 runs.  Last year the Cardinals scored 730 runs and gave up 640, so while the system expects the offense to improve slightly, it expects some regression in the pitching/defense department.  It may seem hard to believe that with a full season of Holliday the Cardinal offense is only projected to score 15 more runs, but remember the system only uses the 50% score when running simulations.  Elite players such as Pujols and Holliday routinely end up performing in their 70-80 and even in their 90th percentile projections for the season, which would obviously raise the amount of runs the Cardinals would score.  For the pitching, PECOTA is very conservative in their projections for co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.  Since Carpenter basically missed 2 years out of the last 3 and Wainwright had his first break-out year in 2009, the projections for the two are probably low.  Still, it’s nice to know as a Cardinal fan that conservative estimates of the pitching/defense have the team only giving up around 700 runs. 

-Using the projected runs scored and runs allowed, PECOTA expects the Cardinals to win the Central division with an 86-76 record.  Like I have said before, these projections are probably a tad conservative, but still it’s nice to know that if things don’t go as well as most fans expect the Cardinals are still predicted to be 10 games over the .500 mark and win their division by a comfortable 5 games over the Reds and 9 games over the Cubs. 

-Once again it’s important to not put too much stock into these projections, but it is nice to know that the Cardinals are considered the favorite going into the year.  They still have to play the games on the field, but Tony LaRussa has a roster that has the most talent in the division to work with.

By: secret_sauce on Jan 30th, 2010
Tagged as: Cardinal Small Talk

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The Rotation, Third Base, and Other Happenings

Joe Crede Dive

Some snippets from around Cardinal nation and the rest of the league:

-Rich Hill was signed as a non-roster invitee-It’s hard not to like moves like this, as there cost is basically free in terms of baseball dollars and players in this position traditionally have something to prove. Hill was once a young, talented, left-handed starter who struck out around 8.5 batters per nine while walking under 3, but has fallen off of a cliff the past couple of seasons. While suffering through physical and mechanical issues in 2008 and 2009 Hill never regained his 2007 form, but Hill and the Cardinals swear he is healthy and ready to go at the start of spring. For what it’s worth (probably little), the Chone projection system has Hill pegged at a 4.78 ERA, a 4.82 FIP, 96 innings pitched, and to be worth 0.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2010. Hill will have to earn a spot on the big league club this spring, but if Hill can resemble anything close to his 3.1 WAR form of a couple years ago John Mozeliak will have a real bargain on his hands.

-The signing of Rich Hill looks to end the pursuit of John Smoltz, despite his reported preference to return-I have to admit I was hoping for a Cardinals-Smoltz reunion in 2010, but with Tony LaRussa wanting the remaining “bullet” to be used on a position player that can play third, Smoltz was priced out of the Cardinal budget. Smoltz would have been a nice fit, as he would give the club some flexibility in the late innings or in the back end of the rotation. The extra depth that Smoltz provides would have been nice, but typically there is pitching, F.A.T., or free available talent, that is out there during the season. Two examples of this in 2009 would be Smoltz, who the Cardinals signed after he was released by the Red Sox and our very own Brad Penny, who was also released by Boston and picked up by the Giants.

-Joe Strauss suggested today that Felipe Lopez might be out of the price range as well, with Joe Crede being a potential player of interest. Crede likely wouldn’t command much guaranteed money, as back problems have plagued him the past several seasons. Still, Crede has a tremendous glove at third base and has a little pop in his bat. Crede was worth 1.9 WAR in just 90 games with the Twins in 2009, and would represent some competition/insurance for David Freese. This is a signing that would make sense for the Cardinals, as the Cardinals wouldn’t likely be on the hook for a lot of guaranteed cash, would have some insurance for Freese, and could still give Freese ample playing time when giving Crede a rest when his back inevitably flares up. Overall Chone expects Freese to have a higher OPS -.777 to .733, but Crede to have the superior glove-5 runs above average to 0.
-The Cubs signed Xavier Nady, who I liked as a potential Matt Holliday replacement back in November. Nady looks to fill the hole created when Reed Johnson became a free agent, and figures to be a nice pickup for Chicago. Look for Nady to platoon with Kosuke Fukudome most of the time, but he also represents insurance in case Alfonso Soriano’s injuries continue to hamper his effectiveness.

-Ben Sheets signed with the A’s-Cardinal fans know Sheets well from his tenure in Milwaukee, and that when he is healthy is a very good pitcher. Sheets was worth 4.4 WAR in his last healthy season of 2008, and cashed in on that potential by inking a one year deal that will pay him 10 million plus in 2010. That may seem like a lot of money from a team like the A’s, but Billy Beane had the cash to spend after missing out on Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre, and Aroldis Chapman this winter. Even if Sheets completely fails, it’s only a one year deal, so it’s not as if this is a potentially crippling contract for the A’s to take on. If Sheets is healthy however, Oakland made a very nice signing. If they are in contention, Beane can hold on to Sheets for a playoff run, but if the A’s fall out of contention, Beane can trade Sheets for prospects. This is what Beane did with Matt Holliday last year, and while Sheets likely won’t command the return that Holliday did, Beane still has a nice potential asset on his hands. Personally I think Beane will trade Sheets if he is having a good year and Oakland isn‘t on the cusp of winning the division. Assuming the economic climate in free agency is similar next year, and Sheets is a type A free agent, the likelihood of Sheets getting a multi-year deal with his medical history is slim. If Sheets is unlikely to get a multi-year deal somewhere, he would be more likely to accept arbitration, where he would receive an increase from his 2010 salary, a risk that the A’s would likely be better off not taking. This provides more incentive for General Manager Billy Beane to move Sheets at the first sign of the A’s falling out of the race.

By: secret_sauce on Jan 27th, 2010
Tagged as: Cardinal Small Talk, Uncategorized

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